55% daily win rate
10% daily stop loss (momoing pnl)
50% average daily limit usage
1:1 win/loss ratio
yields
≈100% median cagr
while
enabling leverage from risk controls and consistency
risk on/off agnostic
building sample size and trajectory, semblance of a profession
currencies respond to vibe shifts. they are coins.
dont trust the industry of fx gigabrain explainers. do they make $15m on 3 sharpe?
401k opened at first job + years of contributions
purest representation of long term views
20+yr cagr below tbills
a reminder trading is a task and not an expression of personal views
xitter.cf/pnlcorrect/status/2042…
no idea when this xau move ends, but seen some exit because of 200dma revisit (reasonable on 1st touch) and "ppl lesser than me are long" (lame, surrendering agency, ngmi mindset)
to a passive observer id rather go w round number hold + inconvenient (circled) momentum
this is partially why i push for low status daytrading so often. its a controlled chaos workable compromise between the upside of letting loose and damage control.
but its also grueling and hard to adhere to beyond a certain pnl and age.
unlike some psychopaths ive met blessed with the temperament to trade forever into astronomical numbers, i knew i could never outrun my flaws and needed to quit while the going was good.
so i stopped trading ideas and calibrated for pnl instead. results were predictable.
a normal well-adjusted human person accepts losses as cost of business and resets. i would disappear into my customized spiral of disgrace and compound a routine loss into a crisis for no reason
but the same delusion ensured drawdowns would be comically prolonged: since i believed i controlled outcomes, losses were avoidable personal failures. rather than a tough market, it was my fault.
to erase the mistakes and unbearable shame, i had to make it back. immediately.
good trades are objectively rare yet i had unlimited ideas at all times + full conviction: max short gbpnok first day back from vacation, selling more palladium from hospital bathroom after child was born, etc. i had the drive to work all waking hours and the results were alright
shameful memories
50%+ existential drawdowns shouldnt happen to experienced short-term market neutral traders, but i managed to do it twice back to back.
“edge” is mostly a bullshit interview/newsletter topic. but if i had one, it was pure delusion of exceptionalism.
to have 250k/year all in spend (nice, nothing crazy) in retirement you need 250k/3.5% = 7.15m, assuming:
- respectable 100k starting stack
- casual 40% rentec medallion returns
- controlled spend
- zero drawdowns
itll still take about 20 years to get there after taxes

















