Who’s going to be the next Pope? I have an algorithm that ranks Cardinals according to the likelihood they’ll be the next pontiff.
Joined May 2022
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October Papability Report:
-4.343 Tagle
-3.368 Lacroix
-2.131 Bo
-1.706 Müller
-1.668 Langlois
-1.609 Turkson
-1.073 Aguiar Retes
-0.908 Koch
-0.479 Erdő
-0.410 Parolin
-0.401 Scherer
-0.176 Zuppi
Papability Index retweeted
NEW: Pope Leo XIV will leave hospital today, and return to the Vatican.
He’s expected to make his first public appearance since his lung cancer surgery on Sunday.
@CNN
Papability Index retweeted
It's worth noting: the last time a Pope was diagnosed with cancer was in September of 1962, and the public wasn't told until 1963, less than a week before Pope St. John XXIII died from the stomach cancer no one knew about.
So, the fact that we've gone from the Pope saying "I'm having surgery this week" on Sunday to the Vatican telling us "surgery was successful, and the nodule was cancerous, and the Pope is asking for dinner now that he's back to his room" by Tuesday evening is remarkable.
Papability Index retweeted
Pope Leo XIV’s surgery to remove a “small, localized nodule” from his lung was successful and he has returned to his room in the Gemelli Hospital, according to the Holy See Press Office.
Cardinal Poola, the 64 year old Archbishop of Hyderabad in India, became a Cardinal on August 27, 2022.
At that time he had a Papability Index of 8.522 and was ranked 97th.
Wednesday is the closing of the meeting of the Holy Father to commemorate 10 years since Amoris Laetitia.
30 Cardinal Electors are participants in the meeting which positively affects their Papability Index.
Papability Index retweeted
Dear friends, during some recent medical examinations, the doctors found a small, localized nodule in my lung. It was detected at a very early stage and is well-localized. The doctors believe that it is best to intervene, so, following their advice, I have decided to undergo surgery to remove it. The operation is already scheduled to take place in the coming days. I thank you for your spiritual closeness and entrust myself to your prayers.
It should also be noted that this affects Cardinal Parolin’s Index. Prior to Tagle’s election as Dean, Parolin was the most senior Cardinal Elector, now he is second in seniority.
Cardinal Parolin’s new Papability Index is -0.310.
It’s been 17 months since the Conclave. We’ve not seen a Pope take this long after their election to name new Cardinals since 1965, twenty months after the election of Paul VI.
When will Pope Leo give out red hats?
October Papability Report cont.:
0.163 Arborelius
0.326 Ranjith
0.674 Cupich
1.079 Aviz
1.095 Tobin
1.130 Eijk
1.235 Ferrão
1.442 Hollerich
1.513 Tempesta
1.883 Sturla
September Papability Report:
-4.332 Tagle
-3.358 Lacroix
-2.137 Bo
-1.712 Müller
-1.657 Langlois
-1.615 Turkson
-1.079 Aguiar Retes
-0.914 Koch
-0.485 Erdő
-0.416 Parolin
-0.407 Scherer
-0.183 Zuppi
August Papability Report:
-4.321 Tagle
-3.337 Lacroix
-2.144 Bo
-1.718 Müller
-1.646 Langlois
-1.622 Turkson
-1.086 Aguiar Retes
-0.921 Koch
-0.492 Erdő
-0.423 Parolin
-0.414 Scherer
-0.189 Zuppi
With Michael Cardinal Czerny turning 80 today, there are now 116 Electors in the College of Cardinals.
Average Papability Index: 4.872
(Sorry; a little late this month!)
July Papability Report:
-4.312 Tagle
-3.337 Lacroix
-2.149 Bo
-1.724 Müller
-1.637 Langlois
-1.627 Turkson
-1.091 Aguiar Retes
-0.926 Koch
-0.498 Erdő
-0.429 Parolin
-0.419 Scherer
-0.195 Zuppi