Digest Polymarket & UMA Discord

Polymarket weather markets: where the temperature actually comes from Starting a series on Polymarket weather markets. First post is the intro. How many markets there are and which source each one resolves against. Right now there are 50 cities. Every day the market trades the maximum daily temperature at a specific airport. Each market description has a Resolution Source field, the exact URL UMA will use to confirm the final number. By that source, all 50 cities split into three uneven groups. Group 1. Wunderground, 46 cities. Everything traded in the US: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Miami, Seattle, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, San Francisco, Austin. Plus almost the entire rest of the world: London, Paris, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Shanghai, Beijing, Madrid, Milan, Munich, Warsaw, Amsterdam, Helsinki, Ankara, Toronto, Mexico City, Panama, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Wellington, Cape Town, Lagos, Jeddah, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Taipei, Busan, Lucknow, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Karachi, Manila. Source: the Daily Observations page on Wunderground by airport ICAO code. Example for Paris / LFPG: wunderground.com/history/dai… Group 2. Weather.gov, 3 cities. Moscow, Istanbul, Tel Aviv. The market resolves on the Temp column at weather.gov/wrh/timeseries. Example for Moscow / UUWW: weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?s… Group 3. Hong Kong, a separate case. Hong Kong has its own Resolution Source that matches neither of the first two groups. I do not trade it yet, so the full breakdown goes in a separate post in the series. Since it is the only city with its own source, many traders likely skip it. That makes it a good spot to dig in and become the local expert. With less competition, trading it can actually work. Why this matters. Two pages can show different temperatures for the same hour. Wunderground pulls data through weather.com, while weather.gov gets its feed from different providers. For airports outside the US and Canada, a 1 to 2 degree gap between channels is common. Rule number one: before trading, open the market description and click the exact Resolution Source link for that specific day. Next posts in the series will cover each group separately: where METAR COR corrections get caught, why Tel Aviv and Denver are built differently, and what is going on with the sensor at Charles de Gaulle. Daily digests from Polymarket and UMA Discord: @predictdigest

🕵️ Someone is gaming Polymarket's Paris weather market. Here's what we know. 🌡️ On April 15 at 9:24 PM Paris time, the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport jumped from 16°C to 22°C. Humidity dropped 20% at the same time. Dewpoint stayed flat. By 9:30 PM, the reading was back to 16°C. This is the second time in 10 days. The first anomaly was on April 6. Polymarket runs daily temperature markets that resolve using METAR data from airport weather stations. Paris resolves via the CDG station. 🔍 THE SUSPICIOUS ACCOUNT A Polymarket account called xx25xx bought 20,000 shares on high temperature hours before the spike. For context: this account's normal trade size is 5-share lots. 20,000 was the largest single trade in the account's entire history. The market flipped instantly on No shares once the spike registered. Estimated profit: 💰 $14K-$22K. polymarket.com/@xx25xx 📅 APRIL 6 VS APRIL 15 A trader named hans32312 publicly admitted in the Polymarket Discord that he was the April 6 winner, trading under the account Kyrgyzhydromet. He says he spotted the temperature rising on 6-minute observation data and bought in real time. Even he says April 15 "looks highly suspicious." The leading theory in Discord: someone saw that a trader made $12K off the April 6 anomaly and decided to replicate it. But this time with preparation, buying hours in advance. On April 6, the temperature fluctuated up and down for over an hour. Could have been maintenance. On April 15, it was a single precise spike timed exactly to the METAR reading, then an instant return to normal. 📍 WHERE THE SENSOR IS This is where it gets interesting. A Discord user (notaforecaster) discovered that the CDG METAR station sits next to a public road, outside the airport's security perimeter. There's a bus stop nearby. 🚌 For comparison: Seattle's airport has its weather station between the runways. CDG has it next to the MeteoFrance building, outside the fence. The Discord community is split. Some say anyone could walk up and heat the sensor from the street. Others argue it has to be an inside job because METAR data is supposed to be reviewed by meteorologists before publication. 📢 POLYMARKET'S RESPONSE Polymarket mod bosaurum in Discord: - "Manipulation of data at airports is a pretty serious crime" - "Can probably be reported to the authorities in Paris. I'd like to see someone prosecuted" - "We can change the airport" - "We're not refunding this market" They plan to switch to Le Bourget (LFPB), where the sensor is inside the airport behind fences. But there's a catch: Le Bourget is managed by the same weather office as CDG. If the manipulation is coming from inside the system, switching airports changes nothing. Orly (LFPO) has its own weather office but its station is also outside the airport perimeter. ✈️ METAR data is used by pilots for landing. Tampering with an airport temperature sensor to profit on a prediction market is not a blockchain bug. It's a potential criminal case. Weather markets are now live in dozens of cities on Polymarket. Every sensor is a potential target for anyone who knows that bad data stands and rollbacks don't happen. Daily Polymarket & UMA Discord digests: @predictdigest