CEO @CampbellReviews. Decision ready information for decisions that matter. Visiting Fellow @PolicyatKings @NuffieldOxford. Ex @FullFact. @TheMktgAcademy alum

UK
Joined March 2011
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
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I've been prototyping an automated peer review project. With current models you get human level peer review for about $0.10 of tokens. For $5 you can rederive every result, check every statistical inference, and audit every paper cited in both directions. There are about 100m papers in the scientific corpus. Most are not important. Many are sloppy. For structural reasons it's essentially impossible to change published work, even to correct a typo. For $500m today you can thoroughly audit every paper ever written. Every p-hacked result, every plagiarist, every fabrication, every citation club, everything. I don't have $500m so instead I build a tree, focusing on the 1% of papers that carry 99% of the signal, doing a cheap first pass looking for obvious problems. I can find 90% of the nonsense for a few hundred dollars of tokens. Any guesses where the biggest surprises will be found?
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After 488 days without a national statistician
Finally, UK appoints a national statistician, poaching André Loranger from Canada... "Gather, guard, grow, give" is his vision for statistics youtube.com/watch?v=6720...
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Will Moy retweeted
ok i went to my first proper academic conference. it was small, like ~40 people focusing on the effects of porn on behavior/intimacy. i think this was my first like high-volume encounter with academia. notes: *i LOVED some parts of it. the conversations i was overhearing were mentioning studies and confounders and well was that result replicable and asking good questions. curious people who understood clearly what I was doing and asked great questions and wanted to work with my data. In absolute heaven. It felt like I was truly around scientists who were curious about the world and good at finding stuff out about it. I was very rarely bored. they were great. *people said the structure of the conference was much better than most academic conferences, but i havent really been to conferences and it seemed kinda bad to me. not very efficient. people did not seem interested in efficiency. *all the conversations felt like they were being choked by the invisible hand of academia. id be like 'well just go research that' and htey'd be like 'no my career' or 'the irb would never'. their timelines for everything are SO LONG. i am used to just doing everything i want immediately. they talk about stuff like faraway future plans. all the juicy stuff is buried layers deep beneath proposals and committees and grants and all of it takes time. *nobody knows what vibecoding is. i had trouble explaining it; i was like 'you can do a fast exploration of your data with claude here-' and it was like i was talking alien noises. I was like 'no seriously, if you want to build a way to track user behavior you can just ask claude-' and it was like i was screaming into the mist. polite nods. 'yeah tech is crazy huh' type responses. *zero conception of methods of getting survey respondents outside of academic discipline. absolutely no concept of marketing or making things interesting/palatable to people they interact with. i blame this on school being boring. i was fantasizing about giving everybody a class on how to interface more vividly with the outside world. i think they'd be really good at it it's just outside their culture. *a world outside academia didn't really seem 'real' to them? people would be like 'i dont like my job' and i'd be like 'have you thought about other ways to do research and make money' and it didn't seem accessible whatsoever. they had a bunch of reasons why all the things i suggested wouldn't work. no fire or interest in it. i think they *could* be interested and a lot of them would be much happier with more novel approaches, but i think there's been so few examples of this actually happening that people just don't know how to conceive of it. like they're not sure what questions to even ask or the first step to try. it's hard to get motivated if you dont' know what to do! *I found myself fantasizing about making a like, halfway house for academics. There's enormous potential and talent and passion in the individual people, but the pulse in the beast is weak. I think the world is ripe for a good, well-funded institution to swoop in and give an alternative. i have ideas for how this would work, how it could make at least some money, but id need someone else to do the operations cause im too swamped with projects.
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Does anyone know if anyone is doing work on how to write legislation that AI can use well? So instead of AI to help lawyers, AI to help reduce the need for lawyers?
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November 21st is #AskHerToStand day so if you know of a woman who might be interested, ask her to stand. Go on. Women wait to be asked several times before they decide to step up. I haven’t look back since 2019. @cwowomen @Women2Win @5050Parliament @kevinhollinrake
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Lots of discourse on the Chancellor becoming ‘emotional’ in the Chamber yesterday. We’ve all seen *plenty* of anger in the Chamber. Is anger not an emotion, then?
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A great opportunity to contribute as a trustee to a hugely important organisation ⁦@SMC_London⁩ would be a fantastic role. Please consider sciencemediacentre.org/about…
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This is adorably nerdy. Never thought I'd describe a government minister's speech that way
Gave a speech to an all-staff meeting at the Australian Bureau of Statistics – where “normal” is a distribution, “mean” isn’t an insult, and everyone has a crush on the Census. 📊💘 andrewleigh.com/media_releas… #auspol #ausecon
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God, the trouble we cause ourselves by pretending National Insurance is anything other than income tax with a false moustache.
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“It was, in retrospect, a festival of side-taking.” statmodeling.stat.columbia.e…
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🎉👏Warmly welcome @puzzlesthewill, CEO of @CampbellReviews, to the Centre for Evidence Based Social Science Research of LZU, on Dec 5-6. ✨🤝The visit fostered mutual understanding and paved the way for advanced collaboration in evidence synthesis between our institutions.
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The ‘SHOW ME the evidence’ consensus has now been co-published in five leading journals, including @JBIEBHC journals.lww.com/ijebh/fullt…
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Some lucky so and so is going to get this gig. It could be you...
JOB ALERT: I'm advertisinga 3 year post-doc looking at digital technology and trust. Its to join a new project starting in January. If you have any questions do get in touch: jobs.shef.ac.uk/sap/bc/webdy… @psa_TIP @psa_ecn
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"We have no respect for a solution until we know what it costs." - Ingvar Kamprad, "The Testament of a Furniture Dealer"
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We're excited to share that the ‘SHOW ME the evidence’ consensus has now been co-published in two leading journals: >> @cochranecollab cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi… >> @CampbellReviews onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
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