CIO @Lekker_Cap | Podcast @ForwardGuidance
Joined December 2018
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Quinn Thompson retweeted
@grok have the embassies been evacuated other times this year?
The long-term oil chart is absolutely fascinating when considered alongside the fact that the world is 1) draining inventories at a record pace and 2) actively blowing up production capacity on a daily basis.
Did you know that the lost oil production from Hurricane Isaias offset almost the last two months of US SPR releases dating back to late August?
We flagged this risk back in July given the oil market's already precarious position going in. Prices have responded as you would have expected them to as a result.
Notice how the admin has switched to Russia-Ukraine "peace" as their preferred market manipulation tool now that Iran tacos no longer work. The reality is this conflict is likely even more difficult to solve than the Iran one, hence why it's going on 4+ years without resolution.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Hot CPI. Hot PPI. And the 10-year is still 17bp below its high.
@qthomp and @fejau_inc on why bonds aren't buying the inflation scare.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
If you missed the latest Roundup with @qthomp and @fejau_inc, here it is in <4 minutes.
The news failure we saw in rates last week was notable. The question from here is how much of it was data driven vs. market sell off driven. Will the flight to safety hold once the equity sell off abates? The Fed started its blackout this week but the inflation story is not over yet.
This unannounced secret visit to the Middle East was to deliver a pep talk. We are inching closer and closer to renewed fighting.
As always, it was an honor to visit our warfighters in @CENTCOM today. The best of our country, on a historic mission. Godspeed.
"The margin alone now tops Brent's full annual average price in 24 of the last 36 years." 🤯😧
Quinn Thompson retweeted
5% deficits. Real wages negative for 7 straight months. Without AI, the US is growing at ~1%. @qthomp asks whether you really want to own equities.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
"Backstops and bailouts are not reasons to be long equity. They're reasons to buy distressed debt." @qthomp on the AI bailout trade
Odds of an October rate hike went down despite two hot inflation reports. In this week's report we deep dive all of the recent Fed speak and posturing that might provide clues as to whether this month's FOMC is a live meeting or not.
I think what this market needs right now is another "AI will kill us all" warning from Dario and Anthropic. It's been a few weeks since we've gotten one of those.
Quinn Thompson retweeted
Is anywhere actually safe in a correlation shock? Debasement trades are the cleanest hide, but even they aren't bulletproof when everything goes to one. @fejau_inc @qthomp
Wait until the European protesters realize their fuel and electricity costs are about to double again. Europe's oil and gas inventories are at their lowest levels in 10+ years going into winter, while all the relevant global wars are heating up, not cooling. We wrote about this back in September.
