Investing in a concentrated portfolio of the highest quality companies in the world. All opinions my own. Not financial advice.
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Joined July 2022
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End of September 2026 portfolio update:
I'll get straight to the point. I decided to part ways with $FICO FICO at the beginning of September when shares were above $1,000. I lost money on this investment, but the damage was hardly noticeable considering the position size was very small. Zooming out, there was barely a dent in overall portfolio performance. That said, it still hurts to lose money, and it's painful to sell a business model that I once believed was the best in the world (they just made too many enemies, and perhaps got too greedy with pricing). Lessons learned!
Apart from that, I added slightly to $META Meta, $AMZN Amazon, and $BN Brookfield. There's a lot to get excited about in this market, but it's never been more important to allocate capital wisely with discipline.
With all the technological advancements and pace of change, investors are left with a simple question: Where are the best, most durable, long-lasting opportunities? And, where are the tactical opportunities to exploit? Quality investing is all about finding businesses that can reliably grow their value year after year, and holding them for the long haul. So, that's where my focus will remain.
If you haven't already, please subscribe to my Substack for deep dive equity research into my holdings (as well as other compounding machines), and highly relevant thematic trends shaping today's markets. Link here and in bio: qualityequities.substack.com
$GOOG
$META
$NVDA
$AMZN
$V
$SPGI
$UBER
$MA
$MSFT
$ASML
$KLAC
$BN
$SPGI S&P Global reported Q3:
- Revenue $3.678B, up 7%
- GAAP EPS $4.45, up 26%
- Adjusted EPS $4.58, up 9%
- 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $17.70-$17.95, from $17.50-$17.75
It also began a review of a potential separation of Capital IQ.
By division:
- Indices: revenue $554M, up 20%
- Market Intelligence: $1.263B, up 7%
- Energy: $645M, up 6%
- Ratings: $1.271B, up 2%
$2.6B of buybacks in Q3, over $4B year-to-date. Mobility was spun off July 1 and is now excluded from results.
$NUE Nucor's Q3 shows what higher prices do for a steel maker:
- Net sales of $11.25B, up 32% from a year ago
- EPS of $5.80, up from $2.63
- Steel mill price per ton up 19%, mill shipments up 12%
- $629M returned to shareholders
Steel prices can fall as fast as they rise.
$INTC Intel rose 4.04% yesterday to $90.47 after New Street Research upgraded it to Buy from Neutral with a $125 price target.
Here's the case the firm made, and what Intel has to show when it reports Thursday:
Further out, the firm forecasts $50B of Intel server CPU revenue by 2030, even with Intel's market share falling to 20%-25%.
The $125 target is 25 times its 2030 EPS forecast of $7.10. That's a forecast four years out, not a sure thing.
The Fed starts its two-day meeting today. The decision comes Wednesday at 2 PM ET, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30.
Futures price about a 90% chance of a hold at 3.75%-4.00%, and a 73% chance of a hike in December.
$CDNS Cadence reported Q3 after the close:
- Revenue $1.633B, up 22%
- Record backlog of $8.2B
- New $2.5B buyback
- 2026 revenue guidance of $6.387B-$6.417B, about +21%
Backlog is signed work not yet delivered. It shows demand, not profit.
One term worth knowing before this week's Big Tech reports: backlog, also called remaining performance obligations (RPO).
It's revenue customers have already signed contracts for, but the company hasn't delivered or recorded yet.
What is free cash flow?
It's the cash a business brings in from operations minus what it spends on buildings and equipment (capex).
It's what's left to pay dividends, buy back shares, pay down debt or save. And it's the number Big Tech is being judged on this week.
Myth: if a company beats estimates, the stock goes up.
$META Meta last week: revenue of $64.60B, up 26% and above the roughly $63.4B analysts expected. Q4 revenue guidance was also above estimates at the midpoint.
The stock still fell almost 7% the next day.