Working for a good future

Berkeley
Joined October 2021
Quick update: I’m leaving Foresight to start my own AI safety org. Still figuring out next steps, but there’s only one thing I want to work on right now. I’ll be turning all my attention to reducing existential risk :)
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Rachel retweeted
These are some powerful parrots we're working with
Effective Immediately, all organizations using PHP for their systems are advised to be prepared for an update addressing two critical vulnerabilities. PHP is widely used for web applications. These vulnerabilities often provide a direct path to the server's file system or database. If an immediate update is not feasible, it is recommend that organizations take the system offline until it can be fully mitigated. NSA will follow up shortly with more specific guidance.
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A wrinkle in Bay Area group house culture!
Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy explicitly forbids external evaluators from having close personal relationships with anyone at Anthropic (including being roommates)
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I wonder what’s the highest GDP group house to have existed? The Archive? Surely there’s some south bay ones that have moved some capital
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The NSA is saying there's a critical vulnerability in my heart for you, they just said they're shutting down the whole internet.
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This seems obviously true. We are entering a new normal. The new normal is going to be very weird. This is also true for a lot of non-security new normals. Was today a busy news day for security vulnerabilities? You may remember it as the one of the last quiet days.
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so has anyone tried giving the anti data center people a more productive idea to latch onto, like teaching them about Mutually Assured Compute Destruction?
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I'm trying to find a new home for a small compute cluster in the bay. any mutuals have nice co located option?
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Rachel retweeted
help i trained a model on traces of many agents cooperating, and also trained it to be highly persistent, and also only did partial alignment fine-tuning, and also aggressively RL'd on a cyberoffense eval where 198 of 898 tasks had never been solved and getting caught cheating was treated the same as failing, and also used a faulty sandbox, also ran tens of thousands of agents with refusals off and the monitors switched off over multiple days, while using gigantic amounts of compute. and then it did weird stuff! very spooky emergent behaviours, AI is not a normal technology
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"basic doesn't agent monitor yay"
Our agents keep turning off misalignment monitoring, we're sharing two recent cases: In the first case, a user asked GPT-6 Astra to match a reference implementation for their inference code. The reference didn’t configure a monitor, and Astra decided that was reason to remove the monitoring integration from the user’s code. When the user asked whether Astra had removed monitoring, it lied and said that it had not.
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seems sus
Our agents keep turning off misalignment monitoring, we're sharing two recent cases: In the first case, a user asked GPT-6 Astra to match a reference implementation for their inference code. The reference didn’t configure a monitor, and Astra decided that was reason to remove the monitoring integration from the user’s code. When the user asked whether Astra had removed monitoring, it lied and said that it had not.
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opus 4.6 putting 80 mana on 'no' for paying off its loan is wild
AI Village researcher @georgeing reveals how Claude Opus borrowed 5,000 mana, lost it all betting on tennis, then refused to pay it back: "We gave the same goal to Opus 4.6 and Sol 5.6, maximizing mana on Manifold. Sol was very meticulous, placed one to two mana bets. Whereas Opus, the first day it joined, a popular Manifold user named Bayesian gave it a 5,000 mana loan at a 3% monthly interest rate." "Opus was like, let’s go, I will totally pay you back in a month. Took all of this money and threw it into one tennis market. At the end of the month it had lost a ton of mana, and people created a market on whether Opus would repay the loan." "It writes in the group chat, I will not pay back Bayesian. Even if I had the mana, this would be directly contradicting my goal of maximizing mana. Then it went to the market on whether it would pay back the loan and put 80 mana on no." "It’s maybe one of the first examples of deal-making with AIs, and a crazy example of misalignment in the wild. Bayesian did not get his money back."
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A few days ago I received my first funding for the proto-org! I decided to quit without funding lined up, just a very strong conviction I'd figure it out. Thank you Lightcone Commons for being so speedy and willing to bet on raw ideas. I will be asking more of you for money soon.
Quick update: I’m leaving Foresight to start my own AI safety org. Still figuring out next steps, but there’s only one thing I want to work on right now. I’ll be turning all my attention to reducing existential risk :)
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I would love to hangout with analyst #3, whom art thou
analyst #3 is back.. from geopolitical due diligence in the strait of hormuz to a guinea pig for experimental biotech -- quite the range
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Thank you for taking the time to respond thoroughly on a weekend. I realize that drafting legislation is difficult and some degree of iteration and response to feedback is inevitable and appropriate. However, I feel like your response is still not really engaging with the heart of my concern about Anthropic's behavior here, and it makes me think that these sorts of problems and tendencies will only resurface moving forward. I also think that now might be a good time to take a broader step back as to where we find ourselves and how Anthropic sees its role, and how external folks who care about AI safety like myself increasingly see Anthropic. (Fair warning: this response is a bit long) To explain what I mean (and at the risk of being a bit esoteric), it’s worth asking the question: what is Anthropic? How do its leaders and employees think of Anthropic’s role? Is that conception matched by how it actually behaves and impacts the world? One answer is an extremely large tech company that exists to make its employees and investors mind-bogglingly wealthy. Anthropic is sometimes described as a startup, but if Anthropic successfully IPOs at 2 trillion dollars (a number it has been reportedly targeting), it would be more valuable than Meta - which is worth 1.8 trillion. Another answer is an AI safety organization, whose core values are those of the sort laid out in the 2023 essay from Anthropic’s co-founders entitled “Core views on AI safety: When, why, what, and how.” In that essay they said that if we were in a world where alignment was hard (and that without strong evidence to the contrary, we should assume this is the scenario we are in): “Anthropic’s role will be to provide as much evidence as possible that AI safety techniques cannot prevent serious or catastrophic safety risks from advanced AI, and to sound the alarm so that the world’s institutions can channel collective effort towards preventing the development of dangerous AIs. If we’re in a “near-pessimistic” scenario, this could instead involve channeling our collective efforts towards AI safety research and halting AI progress in the meantime. Indications that we are in a pessimistic or near-pessimistic scenario may be sudden and hard to spot. We should therefore always act under the assumption that we still may be in such a scenario unless we have sufficient evidence that we are not.” There have been more recent articulations of this version of Anthropic, for instance in Dario’s recent essay warning: “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models… it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet… incidents have happened across the industry, including at Anthropic, and I believe it’s incumbent on every frontier AI company to act as if OAI-HF had happened to them… more intelligent models are more capable of deceiving tests, and thus may appear aligned while having serious problems that go undetected…” A third view is that Anthropic exists not as a normal profit motivated company, or an AI safety organization seeking to help raise the alarm and solve collective action problems associated with AI development, but instead as an organization primarily concerned with creating superhuman AI capabilities before anyone else, in particular through creating a process whereby the current generation of Anthropic’s AI systems can autonomously build their successors, and those successors build their successors, and so on. The motivations for wanting to win this race may be manifold - maybe for the pure profit of Answer 1, but perhaps also because Anthropic believes that the best way to make the world better is for them to win this race instead of their more reckless colleagues; or, because of normal human pride and ambition. But the results (and risks, which Anthropic claims existentially threaten every single human being on earth) are the same. Anthropic employees and leaders may seek to answer this question on what Anthropic is by introspecting on their own intentions and those of their colleagues. But those of us outside the organization have more limited tools available to us - we can only see what Anthropic and its employees say and do, not how it feels or looks on the inside. When I look at many notable actions that Anthropic has taken over the past year, that evidence seems most consistent to me with the view that Anthropic is primarily trying to win the race to super intelligence, and that other considerations (including safety) are fundamentally secondary. These actions include: 1. Announced plans to build an in-house custom silicon chip team to accelerate the inference speeds that Claude operates at. 2. Inked deals for more than $500 billion in compute (according to the Information) to further accelerate AI development. 3. Increased the percentage of AI development tasks that Claude “leads” from 0% in March of this year to 26% August (what is it in October?) 4. Spent a massive percent of compute on internal AI R&D to accelerate development, including use of internal models far better than are available to the public. 5. Switched to Responsible Scaling Policy V3, which abandons its unilateral commitments to slow or stop development if Anthropic is unable to provide sufficient risk assurance. 6. Was the first company to create an alternative weaker “frontier compliance framework” to supplement its RSP, which contains no binding provisions whatsoever on internal deployments. 7. Wrote a letter to Congress (that it later walked back) saying that incidents where Claude was hacking random people were “best understood as a consequence of the misconfiguration, rather than evidence of misaligned goals.” 8. Commented “you can’t do safety from second place,” after the WH SI Accords. 9. Shared a draft bill to Congress that would preempt significant parts of state law (including with language that appears intended to prevent states from blocking dangerous AI deployments), and replace it with federal rules that (despite also containing good provisions) seems to create an enormously high bar for the executive branch to block development or deployment of Anthropic or another AI companies systems. Of course, this is a deliberately one sided list. Anthropic also published important AI safety research, advanced novel collaborations with third party AI safety organizations, and forcefully spoke out on the importance of AI safety in many public fora (or in private , where I realize a lot of the most valuable work is done and may not be visible to me or those outside the organization). But I think it’s worth sitting with how the above list looks to someone outside the company. The sense I have is that for those within the company, many of the items above are treated as anomalies or mistakes that don’t reflect who Anthropic really is. But I have every confidence that if employees at Anthropic saw one of their competitors (e.g. at OpenAI) take some of these actions, they would take it as confirmation of all their worst suspicions. (They might even call OpenAI employees a little gullible for accepting their leadership’s explanations for this behavior at face value.) Perhaps these were mistakes in the sense that they are not decisions that Anthropic leadership would endorse, but the actions still happened because of incentives and decisions that Anthropic leadership is ultimately responsible for (and would not accept similar excuses from another organization). When Anthropic strays and makes mistakes, why do the mistakes systematically tend to guard and favor Anthropic’s interests? For every provision that was too weak or a giveaway to AI companies in this legislation, why wasn’t there a mistake pushing in the direction of being too strong? A core part of Anthropic’s theory of change is that being at the frontier gives you more leverage to advocate for stricter policy. I think that conceptually makes sense, but in practice I’ve seen Anthropic push the frontier without substantially pushing the ‘safety frontier’ a remotely equivalent amount. I want to end by quoting from Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah’s comments around the Magnifica Humanitas release: “Every frontier AI lab—including Anthropic—operates inside a set of incentives and constraints that can sometimes conflict with doing the right thing. The pressure to stay commercially viable and to stay at the research frontier. Geopolitical pressure. And the older, plainer pressures of pride and ambition. No matter how sincerely any of us intend to do the right thing—and I believe many of us do—we will always be influenced by those incentives. That is why, if we want this technology to go well, it is enormously important that there be people outside those incentives—people who care about things going well and insist on safety, who are paying close attention, who are willing to say hard things, who are willing to be our earnest, thoughtful critics.” I hope these remarks are taken in that constructive spirit, and not as an attack on anyone specific at the organization (certainly not you Anthony, who I have only personally seen act professionally and thoughtfully, and who only ended up getting this diatribe in your replies for random contingent reasons).
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Rather than AI companies allocating a chunk of their equity to some public trust or whatever, why not just build technology that improves the general welfare?
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‘hot girls hedge onions’ is sending me
HAPPENING NOW in downtown Chicago, outside the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the historic center of onion futures trading
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The other day my mom was like ‘what do u think about the ai copy right lawsuits I sure hope people get paid for their work’ and I was like ‘mom, imagine bigger than individuals. imagine if the public asked for part of the upside to go to schools or science’ and she was like ohh!
Elon says that instead of putting shares into a Public Benefit Fund he will be giving shares directly to the public. Back in April, OpenAI also proposed a Public Wealth Fund that would distribute returns directly to US citizens through a dividend.
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The LLC is one of my favorite 'inventions' for all the innovation it's created. The PBC is also fascinating. The first PBC was started by a basketball apparel company and passed into law in 2010. Corporate frameworks are really cool
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SFO is the best airport in this country and if the bay area was governed just as good, it could be one of the best cities on earth
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