R. Scott Raynovich, Principal Analyst @futuriom following #cloud #security #networking #techstocks. Ex. Light Reading, Red Herring. Views my own
Bozeman, MT
Joined April 2008
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Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Current valuations for AI infra plays (across semis/hardware, industrials and data center owners), for those willing to brave the waters here.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Paul Tudor Jones says US stocks are 252% of GDP - vs. 170% at the dot-com peak - and a 35% mean reversion would wipe out 89% of GDP
"We're clearly in a sovereign debt bubble"
The trader who called the 1987 crash told "Invest Like The Best" why both AI and this market worry him:
> "The Genie's Out Of The Bottle" (1:30):
- After he warned about AI on CNBC, Warren Buffett sent him a note: "I agree with you 100%, but the genie's out of the bottle." At a closed-door conference, the consensus on AI safety: labs will act "when 50 or 100 million people die in an accident"
> Watermark Everything (5:01):
- His one fix: "demand that all AI is watermarked" - and "make it a felony if someone knowingly violates that three times"
> The IPO Wave (16:11):
- The 2000-02 bear market came from the 1999-2000 IPO flood. Next year's planned IPOs: "five, six percent of market cap" - after a decade of buybacks shrinking supply. That money "is going to come out of existing tech stocks"
> 252% Of GDP (17:56):
- 1929: 65%
- 1987: 85-90%
- 2000: 170%
- Today: 252%
A 30-35% mean reversion is a wealth hit of "89% of GDP" - and capital gains taxes, 10% of revenue, "go to zero"
Every day I break down what the smart money really thinks about AI
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
The “AI is bigger than all previous infrastructure build outs” data is well-distributed now. To those paying attention.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
KeyBanc (upgrading $INTC and $AMD to Overweight) says Intel/AMD are largely sold out of 2026 server CPU capacity and expects AMD to see 50%+ server CPU growth this year. (via @TMTBreakout)
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Cisco is adding Supermicro AI servers, both liquid and air cooled, to its Secure AI Factory with Nvidia. They ship in October as tested bundles with Cisco switching, security and monitoring. Jeetu Patel says Cisco will support "every architectural variance." Cisco stock is up close to 45% this year.
Cisco is now selling servers against Dell and HPE. It does not need to win on the server itself. It needs the server order to bring the networking order with it.
@Cisco @Supermicro_SMCI @axios
axios.com/2026/08/25/exclusi…
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
.@AMD more than doubles its data center #revenue, but its stock falls on concerns over rising capex and margin pressure bit.ly/4pY5JXz @thecubetv @Mike_Wheatley “AMD’s numbers would have been unthinkable a few years ago, with revenue up 50%, gross…”
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
I can’t wait for someone to start bundling subprime GPUs with the SOTA ones into a special financial package and then goes public via a SPAC.
Incredible. Jensen is completing the circle.
- Bankers don’t like GPUs as collateral because the depreciation is unpredictable
- It’s unpredictable because a new GPU can obsolete an old one
- Jensen knows his own roadmap
- so he’s offering depreciation insurance to the banks
- the depreciation insurance (up to 25%) helps the banks get marginal deals over the line
Speculation
- Nvidia will also advise the banks on “reference designs” for datacenters that will make them fungible
- Having them be fungible means that the debt can repackaged into Asset Backed Securities, Collateralized Loan Obligations and Collateralized Debt Obligation (ABS, CLOs and CDOs from 2008 haha)
- This allows tranching to get investment grade ratings on the debt so that it can be resold to pension funds and insurance firms
- It also allows the banks to trade idiosyncratic project specific credit risk for sector wide credit risk
So Jensen is trying to get his customers the same cost of financing as real estate rather than venture equity.
This is going to move the data center game out of the VCs and into the big leagues.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Intel is selling $15B in stock, reportedly upsized to $20B at $95 a share. Roughly 3% dilution covering about 75% of this year's capex.
Raising equity instead of debt is the right call, and Intel hasn't been able to do it on terms like these in years, so the market is clearly buying the AI story. What I want next is external foundry revenue with customer names attached. Still waiting.
newsroom.intel.com/corporate…
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
The #AI finance circularity is having its moment in the market.
@nvidia plans to invest hundreds of billions in speculative AI infrastructure, fueling fears that it may not pay off. #finance #bubbles
futuriom.com/articles/news/n…
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
$GOOGL: Implied CY26 ROIC worse given capex raised 8% but EPS slightly higher at best given higher rev & expense. Positives: $2.7B rev beat; GCP rev +63% y/y in Q1 & +82% in Q2; Cloud backlog +11% q/q. Negatives: “only” $380M OpInc beat, $150M miss in search rev, $6B FCF burn.
These Google earnings are about to put to the test my thoughts that I ended my post with this past Sunday. “I believe it is prudent to start adding back some exposure in the AI related infrastructure names. But I believe this needs to be balanced with prudence at the public cloud layer…” Will the semis (the tip of the spear of the AI infrastructure trade) be able to rally on this capex raise even when the fastest growing public cloud company struggles with ROIC or was it too early to start trying to differentiate during this AI “speed bump”?
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Apollo's chief economist says the market has priced in an AI miracle - and it could tip the US into Recession
"The energy shock is over.
The rate shock is not" - Torsten Slok, Apollo
He isn't calling AI a fraud - he agrees it's revolutionary. His warning is narrower, and harder to dismiss:
- what if the payoff just arrives late?
Here's the trap he laid out:
> The Jenga Tower (01:16):
- Echoing Michael Burry, Slok flags the GPU depreciation games - Amazon "stretched" it, Meta "narrowed" it, "marks masking performance." The rubber hits the road in the back half of 2026
> A Doubling in 3-4 Years (02:28):
- Consensus is pricing hyperscaler revenue AND free cash flow to double in a matter of 3-4 years. Slok calls that "a very, very optimistic assumption"
> Energy Shock Over, Rate Shock Not (03:50):
- Rates have decoupled from falling oil, and the Fed shifted its focus from headline to core inflation. Translation: higher for longer
> The Market Is Pricing Two Hikes (04:46):
- Not cuts - hikes. September and March. And what's most sensitive to higher-for-longer rates?
Long-duration cash flows: tech and software - exactly the assets banking on that AI payoff
Late revenues and higher rates squeeze the same bet from both sides.
That, he warns, is how an AI slowdown becomes a recession
Bookmark & Watch Now ↓
Former Fidelity fund manager George Noble says the AI bubble is 17x bigger than dot-com - and the fallout will be "much worse"
"Show me the money. Where's the ROI?
I don't see it - and I don't see it coming."
Peter Lynch's former analyst lived through the dot-com crash. Here's why he says this one is far more dangerous:
> Show Me the Money (01:11):
- He's not anti-AI - he's anti-price
Every bubble starts with "a kernel of truth," then the price detaches. His one question no one can answer: where is the ROI?
> The 17x Bubble (02:20):
- He cites economist Julian Garrett's calculation that this malinvestment is 17 times the size of dot-com - and the sums are "so much larger relative to the real economy"
> SpaceX at 120x Revenue (03:14):
- On the SpaceX IPO: "buying companies at over 10x revenues usually ends very badly." This one priced at ~120x. He'd sell it "right away"
> The Lockup Trap (03:53):
- The danger even if nothing changes:
SpaceX floats just 5% now, unlocking to 100% by December. When insiders who got in at 1/10th the price "hit the bid," it drops
> The Biggest Misallocation in History (06:26):
- His verdict on Tesla: "probably the biggest misallocation of capital at scale in the history of stock markets - perhaps only surpassed by SpaceX"
> Where He'd Hide Instead (08:27):
- His rotation out of AI: energy ("sleepwalking into the biggest energy dislocation in history") and gold miners - one name at "7x earnings, not cash flow"
Bookmark & Watch Now ↓
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
I now demand all brackets to be designed in a circle
This is beautiful
Rayno in the Clouds💨🤓 retweeted
Realising Apple went public at under $2 billion and 15 times revenue in 1980.
SpaceX wants you to buy at $2 trillion and 100 times revenue in 2026.
That is not getting in early. That is being the exit for venture capitalists who have held this equity for years at a fraction of what you are being asked to pay.
Almost none of the retail investors buying this IPO will read the 300 pages before the book closes on June 11.
That is your entire competitive advantage right there.
