S͎ retweeted
People keep attributing declining memecoin ceilings to increased market efficiency.
But I think we’re confusing efficiency with exploitability.
We used to trade memetics. WIF, PEPE, MOG, POPCAT, GOAT, FARTCOIN, GIGA.
These were driven by culture, humor, and unpredictable organic adoption. Their future demand wasn’t easily modeled or systematically exploited.
Now we’re mostly trading predictable reactions to tweets and events.
Devs and sophisticated traders operating hundreds of wallets anticipate future demand, price it in and dump on you immediately. I agree that this is efficient extraction but that’s about the only thing it’s efficiently accomplishing lmfao…
Efficient Market Hypothesis states, a more efficient market should actually be harder to consistently exploit for abnormal risk-adjusted returns, not easier.
We’ve mistaken a shift toward more systematically exploitable speculation for evidence that the market itself has become more efficient.
And there’s a paradox in optimizing for extraction: the more efficiently you extract liquidity from participants, the more you undermine their incentive to keep providing it.
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The other day someone asked me what “priced in” means.
This candle on $vrax is a live display of something being “priced in” in real time.
Vlad did another one of his X ama posts, people replied asking questions about $vrax. Although he has yet to reply, people will buy in anticipation of him replying.
So when you break it down, the market is actively “pricing in” something that could happen in the future(a vlad reply).
This is a very simple example of something being priced in but pretty much all available and relevant information/data pertaining to markets is actively being priced in at all moments always.
