Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes) header
Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes) profile picture

The bad kind of skeptic, coder, hiker, diver, and skier. Recently authored book series dealing with bullsh*t, summarized at #RealityTrackingDaily

Space Coast, Free State of FL
Joined February 2008
Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)Photo by Reed Esau 😺 (@reedes)
Nov 8 - INCENTIVES are rewards, penalties, frictions, and protections that make some behavior easier, safer, cheaper, or more profitable than other behavior. People respond to more than values and mission statements. They respond to payoffs. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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A system may praise honesty while rewarding conformity, praise safety while rewarding speed, or praise mission while rewarding metric gaming. When stated goals and payoff structures diverge, behavior follows the payoff structure. 2/3
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Ask what gets rewarded, what gets punished, what gets ignored, and who pays when outcomes go wrong. Systems often deliver what they reward. If you want better behavior, inspect the structure shaping it. 3/3
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Nov 7 - CHARITY is giving another person the strongest reasonable interpretation consistent with the words, context, and evidence. It does not mean pretending every statement is wise or every speaker sincere. It means refusing to weaponize ambiguity. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Without charity, disagreement slides toward straw man, ritual outrage, and cheap moral victory. You stop engaging what the other person most likely meant and start attacking a convenient substitute. 2/3
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Ask whether you are answering what this person most reasonably meant, or the version that gives you the easiest win. Charity is not gullibility or unlimited patience. It is discipline under uncertainty. 3/3
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Ha! I’m an early enough gen-xer to know about Perry Mason and Burr’s role in Godzilla. (Which made me appreciate hearing on the late Gilbert’s podcast about Burr’s behind-the-scenes flaming persona. 😸)
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I was hoping to stay in CO for another year or two, but given its leftward lurch, maybe it’s best that I relocated this year.
Congrats #Colorado, I guess. It's official. You've finally dethroned California for the title of "Craziest State in the Country," with Oregon and Washington State now trailing far behind. Now prepare to suffer the Cali-like consequences. You can anticipate hunting bans, capital and corporate flight, energy shortages and grid instability, skyrocketing utility bills, a war on natural gas users, negative population growth, even poorer public schools, decaying roadways, the total demise of TABOR budget restraints, increased crime rates, and death (and impoverishment) by a thousand new "fees" and "assessments." The few common sense ballot measures that eeked out a win on Tuesday will be neutered, nullified and negated by Jared the Second (AKA @pweiser) and our one party rulers under the Golden Dome, with no recourse because the courts are also stacked with party hacks. It's over, Colorado. We just put California in the rear view mirror in the race off the crazy cliff. Better brace for impact. #copolitics #coleg @GovofCO
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Institutions can be an asset in reality-tracking, but even the best ones are nevertheless subject to jumping the rails and resisting accountability. Case in point:
MIT is insane to continue to call its metoo investigation of Sabatini independent and expect blind faith in return. The court record contains smoking-gun evidence confirming bias surrounding the investigation, yet MIT continues to stand by Ruth Lehmann—the director who removed Sabatini in the name of metoo and workplace culture. MIT’s response accuses social-media coverage of being inaccurate without identifying a single specific inaccurate statement. Thousands of people have commented on this nationally reported story, so the accusation could refer to anything or anyone. If MIT means Bill Ackman, it should address him directly. If it means the Colonel, it should say so to her face. I certainly have not heard anything from MIT. If something I have posted is untrue, MIT should identify it specifically. Instead, it issued a statement deliberately designed to project confidence in the administration while admitting, explaining, and answering nothing. MIT repeatedly invokes an “independent law firm” while omitting the most important fact: MIT hired and paid that firm. The public has not been told how much that law firm was paid, what information it received, what instructions it was given, and how the investigation was framed. Discovery may reveal fees well into six figures or even approaching seven. A law firm running a business has every incentive to satisfy the client paying its bills, which is precisely why genuine transparency about the arrangement is essential. The report was leaked years ago, and its account ran counter to firsthand witness descriptions of Sabatini’s work environment. That conflict warranted scrutiny then and demands it now. The consequences extend far beyond Sabatini. MIT disrupted NIH-supported research, squandered scientific work, and sent a warning to every serious scientist considering a career there: administrators can destroy your laboratory and reputation, and hide behind a law firm they selected and paid. Changing course would cost MIT little and begin the process of restoring public trust. Refusing to do so risks the future of the Institute itself.
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Nov 6 - HEURISTIC is a rule of thumb, a mental shortcut that helps you judge without rebuilding the whole problem from scratch. Under real limits of time, information, and attention, shortcuts are not laziness. They are how finite minds cope. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Speed is purchased by compression. A shortcut ignores detail, leans on a proxy, or assumes that a pattern good enough elsewhere probably holds here too. That can help triage. It can also bend judgment when carried past its range. 2/3
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Ask whether you are using the shortcut to decide what to examine, or to avoid examining it. Heuristics are useful starting points. They become dangerous when they harden into stopping points. 3/3
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Spoke with elderly neighbor who said he’d seen nothing like this storm in the 30 years he’s been here. (Presumably a direct-hit hurricane could do it though.)
Before purchase I’d taken precaution of ensuring house is not located in severe flood zone. That may have helped, as water got close but still several inches below interior floor surface, so no intrusion. Many houses in other developments did get flooded!
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Nov 5 - FALSE EQUIVALENCE treats two cases as if they deserve the same judgment after the differences that matter have been flattened or ignored. The cases often share something real. The distortion is making that feature carry too much. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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Symmetry is not the same as comparability. Two actions both involve harm, risk, or norm-breaking, but the scale, intent, evidence, consequence, and responsibility may differ sharply. Parity can sound fair while hiding asymmetry. 2/3
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Ask: equal in what respect, and do the remaining differences matter to the conclusion? If the parity claim survives plain comparison, it may be sound. If it needs abstraction and vagueness, beware. 3/3
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The need for reality-tracking habits doesn't lessen when your preferred faction takes power. Vulnerability shifts from having dealt with misleading illusions created by opponents to now dealing with self-serving ones created by your own side.
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Nov 4 - LABELS are compressed signals that often arrive carrying more judgment than description. They can help orient you quickly, but the shortcut becomes dangerous when it pretends to be the whole account. 1/3 #RealityTrackingDaily
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A label tells you what kind of thing this is supposed to be and what posture to take toward it. Call something misinformation, reform, extremist, professional, or conspiracy, and attention has already been nudged. 2/3
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Ask what the label means here, what it compresses, and what it leaves out. Then describe the case without the loaded word. A label can orient inquiry. It should not relieve you of the job of seeing. 3/3
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