Joined September 2021
$1 trillion of capex per year and we have achieved a 5% decline in call center hiring
Global call-centre employment is contracting
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Elon is a supply side optimist
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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I don’t think the age gap dynamic is well understood Millennials are already the dominant voting block The age of boomer luxury communism is probably over after Trump’s presidency
Replying to @rev_cap @PythiaR
Country has a huge gap as boomers age out Millennials going to transition to being the dominant voting block. They already are. They just thought they liked Trump and are now realizing he’s just the boomer communist manifesto (among other things) by other means
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It’s funny watching the mainstream realize that you can’t tilt the economy massively in favor of the old at the expense of the young It’s now like the acceptance phase of grief for boomers but there will be a panic as they are voted out of government leadership forever after 28
One reason young people want socialism so much is that they're jealous that older people have it and they don't.
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Medical compensation is completely out of control but hey the government pays for it so who cares right? Such blatant regulatory capture It’s bankrupting the country to have doctors and hospital administrators making $1-2 million but will go on forever
My favorite is the “portfolio manager” who makes almost $3MM per year.
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Friedberg is one of a few public figures who understands technology but also sees the big picture around how sustained inflation, deficits, and crazy monetary policy are cancers that will eventually destroy us if not resolved Wish these ideas could become more mainstream
David Friedberg says the US needs an economic reset to avoid having a social collapse like France "It depends on how far the collapse goes. You could have this sort of social collapse that you see in some countries that involve rioting and murd*r and all these sorts of things." "Or you end up having what is more of like an economic collapse, which is sort of like Argentina and Brazil, Greece more recently, where the ability to service the debt because the government got too big forces this kind of restructuring of the economy." "And yes, there are still massive protests, there is still an incredible loss of net worth, there's an incredible inflation effect that wipes out asset values for people. And you end up having kind of economic resetting without the great social resetting." "I think we have to do something. I don't think we can run a higher deficit-to-GDP than France in the United States with the same debt-to-GDP as France and only modestly higher GDP growth. I think we are fundamentally going to need to have some degree of reset in the United States." "The question is, do we want it to be a massive social reset, or do the left and the right want to put on their hard hats and say, 'Okay, we got to go in the mines and do the work and figure out how to cut this from seven and a half years to four years and do it in a way that doesn't destroy the economy.'"
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Claudification ™️ is a disease
When you are live on an earnings call and the CEO or CFO pauses for five seconds before answering a question about accounts receivables, you feel something. You cannot explain it cleanly. You just know that pause meant something. Read the transcript two hours later and that pause is gone entirely. The transcript says he answered the question. It does not say he needed five seconds to decide how. When you visit management in person and the receptionist has been there for twenty-two years, that tells you something. When the parking lot is full at 4pm on a Friday, that tells you something. When the CEO walks you through the factory floor and he has unscripted personal dialogue with the line workers with what looks like genuine respect rather than performed deference, that tells you something significant about how this place operates. None of that is in the 10-K. microcapclub.com/the-last-mo…
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We bet the entire economy on a technology no one wants, needs, or has a path to using Current models are not helpful enough to replace labor. More complex models can’t be control and may break the internet 1 interest rate hike and poof it’s gone
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