Rich Prisinzano

Finally, we can look at trends in different kids of tax-preferred savings accounts. The 2025 data show that the Rothification of the IRA landscape continues apace.

The Survey of Consumer Finances is the best publicly available data on household wealth. As a side effect, it contains lots of tax-relevant insights. A quick rundown of how @The_Budget_Lab uses the SCF, and what the new 2025 data say about tax trends: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…

Wanted to quickly highlight two back-end modeling features that came out of this project and that we're proud of—a new, structural-ish model of capital gains realizations, and a new GPU-compatible implementation of our tax model.

New work from @The_Budget_Lab looking at: (1) how much untaxed income there is at the top (2) why much of that income would disappear if you tried to tax it (3) how to redesign the tax code so that that (2) is less of a problem budgetlab.yale.edu/research/…

FWIW, if this means raise the existing rates for the 232 auto programs from 25% to 50% (steel is already 50%) and keep existing USMCA rules, that'd translate to: 7.8% -> 9.4% average statutory rate on CA 11.8% -> 12.0% for the whole US (including other scheduled tariff hikes)

New @The_Budget_Lab numbers on the 50% Canada tariffs. What's notable about this one is that there's no trade-agreement carveout. Despite the rhetoric, most tariffs haven't hit CA imports very hard due to USMCA. CA's effective rate has been consistently below the overall rate.