Tech, Software, and Investing
Joined March 2014
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$four @Shift4 I generally think that @tlaubers and Chris improved on that quite a bit. By my count there have been at least 10 new disclosures at the SIG and GS fireside chats: FXN organic growth, ME impact modelling for Q4, Q3 organic guidance ex ME, the Smartpay and Bambora size, A2A size and rationale, 60% incremental FCF conversion holding into 2027, Q1 and Q2 constant currency, Shift4 One at 12 of 15 countries, the leverage policy and hardware costs. Though I was disappointed with how @tlaubers blamed the payments sector as the main reason the stock has been the worst payment stock YTD I track.
Because of the poor communication and visibility, there is still a long way for $four to be better understood by the market, and because of that literally all possible headwinds tend to materialize on the stock. Either it's AI, SaaS apocalypse, inflation, toast, fisv collapse, fuel prices, war, travel disruption, and no positive point lands despite stupid valuation/peg: organic accelerating on FXN basis, TFS on plan through a war, Americas at mid teens, Japan reform, record buybacks.
@tlaubers has the opportunity to fix the communication gap while buying back 10% of the stock to hit his own PSU run rate targets, turning all these headwinds into tailwinds in 27. By my accounts the buybacks are possible under the 3.75x ceiling, though with not much room once A2A closes (which need a lot of answers here)
$FOUR @Shift4 needs to rethink its investor materials if it wants the market to price this business properly
watching the takes since the Q2 report, most people don't understand where the growth is coming from, or what "global blue" is actually composed of. not because they aren't trying, but because the company doesn't give them enough to work with
two things almost nobody has right
1/ global blue, ex the middle east headwind, is the fastest growing thing shift4 owns. 12% same-basis with the drag in it, mid-20s without
2/ the A2A acquisition is probably the best decision they've made this year. network fees are their biggest cost line and A2A bypasses them. $143m upfront is cheap for that, and it's being read as capital misallocation
I have a 20+ page WIP breakdown. will share it free over the next few posts. no paywall, no subs
big shoutout to @tembelvitesi who's been doing more to explain this company than the company does
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$sofi dropped the debit index report and i don't think it could get any more bullish for $four than this. from the report:
The experience economy led Q2 2026:
- Experience spend grew 23% from Q1 2026 on 23.2% more transactions
- Tourist attractions and exhibits: Spend increased 43% in line with seasonal trends and warming weather.
- Seasonal travel spend grew heading into summer: Travel spend grew 21% from Q1 2026 on 17.4% more transactions.
- Sporting events: Transactions were up 50% and spend increased 42%, in a crossover season that closed out NBA and NHL postseason play, opened major league soccer, baseball and women's basketball, and saw the FIFA World Cup kick off in June.
These data points from Q2 tell a very compelling story for @Shift4, the experience economy continues strong momentum even when gas prices are skyrocketing.
This shows that consumers are still willing to spend during periods of economic volatility, which is a great pattern for @four long-term and also very aligned with what @tlaubers has been saying
$FOUR Decoding @Shift4, chapter 1
$FOUR is going through the biggest transformation in its history. A US acquirer for restaurants and hotels turned into a business processing across six continents, four verticals, and a dozen revenue streams, with a quarter of revenue now non-dollar.
The reporting hasn't kept pace. The revenue lines don't map to the businesses, so you can't tell what's actually compounding underneath. Which is exactly why it is misread and where the edge is.
I spent over a week rebuilding the structure from the filings and transcripts going back several years. Chapter 1 covers:
- what the business is actually composed of, eight acquisitions grouped by what each one added
- how the money moves from top line to bottom, gross revenue down to EBITDA
- why Global Blue is the growth engine rather than the drag it's being treated as
- what the balance sheet can carry, the maturities, and whether there's room for M&A and buybacks
Next chapters will cover revenue streams and network fees, Global Blue in depth, the acquisitions, and valuation.
$FOUR @Shift4 needs to rethink its investor materials if it wants the market to price this business properly
watching the takes since the Q2 report, most people don't understand where the growth is coming from, or what "global blue" is actually composed of. not because they aren't trying, but because the company doesn't give them enough to work with
two things almost nobody has right
1/ global blue, ex the middle east headwind, is the fastest growing thing shift4 owns. 12% same-basis with the drag in it, mid-20s without
2/ the A2A acquisition is probably the best decision they've made this year. network fees are their biggest cost line and A2A bypasses them. $143m upfront is cheap for that, and it's being read as capital misallocation
I have a 20+ page WIP breakdown. will share it free over the next few posts. no paywall, no subs
big shoutout to @tembelvitesi who's been doing more to explain this company than the company does
great point @EalimAlmalia! This is one of the most bullish points for the GB that i've been tracking for a while. @tlaubers confirmed in the call, but it got lost in the guidance cut news:
"in luxury retail, we signed several brands to our tax-free shopping solution, including Ralph Lauren, Burberry, Patagonia, and Givenchy in Japan" - @tlaubers
Japan will for sure become an even bigger market for $four with the TFS reform in Nov kicking in and likely Shift4 One launching there officially. I also agree that it does not seem to be baked into the guidance as of now.
I do wonder why @Shift4 hasn't announced these details more broadly. The marketing team needs to step up
Japan flips to a refund-based tax-free system Nov 1. A $16bn tax-free market moves onto Global Blue's home-turf model 70% global share, in Japan since 2011 with nothing in the guide for it. Sentiment bottom + de-risked numbers + FY27 catalysts.
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$FOUR @Shift4 with new installs in Australia likely tied to the Smartpay acquisition. International grew 51% last quarter, the rollout is everywhere.
#Shift4Dine is on a tear with merchant count up 40% YoY, and it’s already more than half of their restaurant-software base.
@tlaubers and Chris have done a great job tightening up the disclosure this year. Next step imo is breaking out Dine and the verticals. That detail would make this story obvious and let the growth speak for itself. The setup here is as good as it’s been.
$FOUR
Vienna Patisserie and Bakery in Melbourne Australia received top of the line hospitality hardware and software @Shift4 #shift4dine
I bought Shift4 stock, the company I started 27 years ago, that serves predominantly hotels, restaurants, and stadiums, because it was trading at a multi-year low and permissible under my ethics agreement. I sold all SpaceX stock, any indirect equity exposure to it, and any other aerospace-related companies 18 months ago when I was first nominated for the job. A billion-dollar sacrifice I was happy to make to serve my country. I suspect I will be worth much less coming out of public service than going into it-- and that is completely fine!
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$FOUR hit $34 yesterday. That's a 73% drawdown from the Feb 2025 peak.
At these levels, the same questions keep coming up: Takeover, take it private (@rookisaacman floated that himself back in 2022), buybacks, and why public payment names trade so far below private ones.
I asked @tlaubers about a lot of this directly a few weeks ago. His answer 👇
~5x forward FCF, Americas core growing 15%, international at 51%. Everyone's debating takeovers, but why wouldn't you just own a business that generates its whole market cap in free cash flow in ~5 years, and growing?
Credit to @tlaubers and the team for getting through what's probably the hardest stretch @Shift4 has been through. They keep executing, tightening the product and the value prop.
None of this is fun at the lows, but +10% today shows how fast it flips. Sentiment turns way quicker than the fundamentals ever did.
I've been tracking the new #Shift4Dine wins daily and found out a few data points:
$TOST has been replaced by @Shift4 in quite a few places. An installer said:
"How many Toast POS systems have we replaced? It's getting hard to keep count..."
#Shift4Dine seems to be up and running in SPAIN, with a few installations reported
The search query if anyone wants to do the same and share insights:
teapaw.org/search?q=(Shift4%20OR%…
#FOUR
#Shift4 $FOUR It has been pretty hard to find any relevant information about Shift4 on X these days, since the $FOUR hashtag has been spammed by bots because of this FOUR coin (coingecko.com/en/coins/fourc…)
Despite that, I suggest that everyone who is trying to keep track of wins by the @Shift4 team search for "shift4", #Shift4Dine, @SkyTabPOS, or @Shift4.
The sales team seems to be absolutely cracking on new merchants, with DOZENS of new installs EVERY DAY. This, together with the Boozt deal, is by far the most encouraging data point I've seen since the Q1 earnings report. Shift4Dine merchant count is up 40% YOY, and that seems to be accelerating even further, with most wins being US-based, which is great for the "organic growth"/US story!
It is very hard to see a world where $FOUR doesn't beat Q2 estimates with that many new installs, the World Cup tailwind, DCC, the global blue synergies kicking off, etc.
Thanks to @tlaubers for teaching us how to keep track of wins on the last earnings call with multiple screenshots from different installs:
teapaw.org/search?q=(Shift4%20OR%…
btw, @basispointpod @amit @stevenfiorillo @Futurenvesting would love to see @tlaubers in your show!
Great point on the long tail @tembelvitesi. Leveraging AI to cut the cost to serve SMBs is key. $FOUR needs to show it landing on the bottom line.
I'd add another angle. AI is also a tailwind on the M&A integration cost, which is the part of $FOUR's story the market underweights.
Speaking as an engineer, the hardest, slowest, most expensive part of any acquisition is integrating systems, merging platforms, migrating data, unifying APIs, reducing risk, QA, all of it. It's where deals quietly bleed money and time.
That work is exactly what AI tooling is now compressing with faster migrations, less manual glue code, and lower integration headcount.
So really, there are two ways to add volume: spend heavily on S&M to win merchants, or acquire and integrate, and AI is making that second path cheaper and faster than these deals were ever underwritten on.
The market still prices @Shift4's M&A as pure execution risk, and Global Blue is the clearest example. That's the story #FOUR needs to flip, because it's exactly the friction AI is built to compress.
I'd love to see @tlaubers lean into this narrative more with concrete outcomes. The integration-efficiency angle specifically would reframe how people see the whole acquisition strategy, and they've already got the AI roadmap and the xAI partnership out there to build on.
Long tail is where you get the margin and stickiness also decreases big customer risk as well. Imagine $EBAY leaving $ADYEN stock would be down 10% in a day. One customer with $80B payment volume.
Only problem with the long tail is the maintainance and serving thousands of merchants, and here creating self service tools is the key solution which i believe AI will help a lot.
I think Shift4 has the right mix when it comes to customers and they are right to prioritize SMB to keep the spread above 60bps. And if they are planning some big wins in ‘27, they should create some spread buffer with SMB meanwhile.
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One of the strongest pushbacks on the $FOUR Global Blue cross-sell, which I put to @tlaubers directly, is that the big luxury houses already run sophisticated acquirers like $ADYEN.
My view has been that the cross-sell opportunity is much broader than just the marquee luxury names. The open question for me was whether #Shift4 could win those entrenched accounts at all.
@tlaubers' answer settled it 👇
@Shift4 takes share even in the big accounts that Adyen and the other major processors already serve, those are demanding, low-spread, but strong proof points. The bigger opening is everything beneath them, the SMB merchants on Global Blue for tax-free that no major processor ever properly served. @Shift4 wins at both ends, with different competitors at each.
International growth backs the direction, +51% YoY last quarter on European adds. Still need to see the GB synergies come through in tangible numbers, but @tlaubers and team are very well positioned to win with great execution!
$FOUR
#Shift4 @Shift4 $FOUR hit a 52-week low today despite buying back ~$600M of stock with $400M still authorized, and @rookisaacman adding $30M+ on the open market this year. Either the founder and the company are wrong, or the market is missing something.
The market seems stuck on the fear that Global Blue is just a tax-free shopping business, and the cross-sell will never materialize. It seems to track luxury retail and travel trends and prices the deal as if TFS is all there is.
I asked @tlaubers directly last week, and that framing misses the point (check response below)
The tax-free transaction isn't the prize. GB came with a 400k luxury retail cross-sell opportunity across 45 countries, owning that relationship gets Shift4 in the door to run the rest of their payments: in-store, e-commerce, cross-border. Volume that has nothing to do with the refund.
It gets better on the financing. ~$975M of the deal was funded with mandatory convertible preferred now trading near $52 vs $100 par $FOUR.PRA , and the board just authorized buying it back, retiring the GB financing at a ~48% discount (teapaw.org/rodrigoaan/status/2056…).
The market is waiting for hard proof that the synergies are kicking in, which is fair. But the early signs are already there and getting ignored: worldwide payments-based revenue grew 51% YoY last quarter on strong European customer adds. That's the line to watch, and hopefully @tlaubers and team break out more on the GB and other M&A synergies with tangible numbers next earnings.
I've been deep in the $FOUR Q1 10-Q, and it shows the narrative @tlaubers and team keep reiterating about deploying capital opportunistically.
Note 20, subsequent events: in May 2026, the board authorized including the Company's Preferred Stock ($FOUR.PRA) in its outstanding November 2025 buyback program. $400M auth still live. Preferred trades at $52-53 vs $100 par.
Possible outcomes if management deploys against the preferred:
– retires up to 7.5M preferred units (72% of outstanding) at $53
– saves up to $45M/yr in dividend cash, boosts adjusted FCF directly
– prevents up to 9M shares of forced dilution at May 2028 conversion (1.2224 max ratio at current common price)
– captures ~$355M of par-discount, which makes the Global Blue deal cheaper in retrospect (~$1B of the purchase price was funded by this preferred)
– likely forces conv arb funds to unwind their delta hedge, mechanically reducing common short interest
– compounds: saved dividends fund additional common buybacks over the next 2 years
Quick math: $400M at $53 preferred prevents 9M future shares plus saves $45M/yr in dividends. Same $400M at $41 common retires 9.7M shares, but the preferred dilution still hits in 2028 (12.7M new shares). Preferred path leaves Shift4 with fewer shares at conversion AND more cash.
caveat: $FOUR.PRA is thinly traded, so meaningful deployment likely requires a mix of open-market accumulation and privately negotiated block purchases with major holders
Possible outcomes if management deploys against common:
– retires ~9.5M common shares at $42
– preferred dividends continue at $63M/yr through May 2028
– full 12.7M shares of preferred dilution hits at conversion
The next 10-Q in early August will show what @tlaubers and Chris did. Honestly wouldn't mind if they extended the buyback auth and took out all the preferred while it's still cheap.
$FOUR
#Shift4 $FOUR It has been pretty hard to find any relevant information about Shift4 on X these days, since the $FOUR hashtag has been spammed by bots because of this FOUR coin (coingecko.com/en/coins/fourc…)
Despite that, I suggest that everyone who is trying to keep track of wins by the @Shift4 team search for "shift4", #Shift4Dine, @SkyTabPOS, or @Shift4.
The sales team seems to be absolutely cracking on new merchants, with DOZENS of new installs EVERY DAY. This, together with the Boozt deal, is by far the most encouraging data point I've seen since the Q1 earnings report. Shift4Dine merchant count is up 40% YOY, and that seems to be accelerating even further, with most wins being US-based, which is great for the "organic growth"/US story!
It is very hard to see a world where $FOUR doesn't beat Q2 estimates with that many new installs, the World Cup tailwind, DCC, the global blue synergies kicking off, etc.
Thanks to @tlaubers for teaching us how to keep track of wins on the last earnings call with multiple screenshots from different installs:
teapaw.org/search?q=(Shift4%20OR%…
btw, @basispointpod @amit @stevenfiorillo @Futurenvesting would love to see @tlaubers in your show!
I've been deep in the $FOUR Q1 10-Q, and it shows the narrative @tlaubers and team keep reiterating about deploying capital opportunistically.
Note 20, subsequent events: in May 2026, the board authorized including the Company's Preferred Stock ($FOUR.PRA) in its outstanding November 2025 buyback program. $400M auth still live. Preferred trades at $52-53 vs $100 par.
Possible outcomes if management deploys against the preferred:
– retires up to 7.5M preferred units (72% of outstanding) at $53
– saves up to $45M/yr in dividend cash, boosts adjusted FCF directly
– prevents up to 9M shares of forced dilution at May 2028 conversion (1.2224 max ratio at current common price)
– captures ~$355M of par-discount, which makes the Global Blue deal cheaper in retrospect (~$1B of the purchase price was funded by this preferred)
– likely forces conv arb funds to unwind their delta hedge, mechanically reducing common short interest
– compounds: saved dividends fund additional common buybacks over the next 2 years
Quick math: $400M at $53 preferred prevents 9M future shares plus saves $45M/yr in dividends. Same $400M at $41 common retires 9.7M shares, but the preferred dilution still hits in 2028 (12.7M new shares). Preferred path leaves Shift4 with fewer shares at conversion AND more cash.
caveat: $FOUR.PRA is thinly traded, so meaningful deployment likely requires a mix of open-market accumulation and privately negotiated block purchases with major holders
Possible outcomes if management deploys against common:
– retires ~9.5M common shares at $42
– preferred dividends continue at $63M/yr through May 2028
– full 12.7M shares of preferred dilution hits at conversion
The next 10-Q in early August will show what @tlaubers and Chris did. Honestly wouldn't mind if they extended the buyback auth and took out all the preferred while it's still cheap.
$FOUR