AAR Corp $AIR is in the penalty box after levering up to become the largest heavy MRO provider. Iran War & Fuel prices are weighing heavy on the space. But an aging fleet, supply disruptions & booming air travel provide a long runway for growth. showmetheincentives.substack…

🇺🇸 NYC is finally putting an end to those Central Park horse carriages by 2028 after Mayor Mamdani and the City Council locked in a deal. The rides have been a tourist staple for over 150 years, but animal advocates and a fatal accident this summer pushed this through. Drivers who built their whole businesses around it are already saying they’ll fight it in court. End of an era. Or finally the right call? Writer: Daniyal

We’ve tracked specialty chemical distributors for years. After a 3-year bear market, we’re leaning in. Our latest KEDM deep dive explains what’s changed and why AZE.BB and IMCD.NA have our attention. Get your copy now.

NEW: The execution by firing squad of the Fort Hood shooter will be carried out in public, Hegseth says. "We'll make sure that people are able to watch it. That it's public. Because people need to understand that there's serious consequences for these types of things" - Axios

There’s a part of the aviation industry I think investors still underestimate. The aircraft aftermarket. ✈️ Everyone watches Boeing and Airbus deliveries, but there’s an enormous business that starts after the aircraft leaves the factory 🏭 parts, repairs, component MRO, heavy maintenance, used serviceable material and aviation logistics. Commercial aircraft can generate aftermarket revenue for 20–30 years. And the setup right now is unusually strong. New aircraft deliveries remain constrained while airlines are keeping older planes in service longer and flying them harder. The global commercial MRO market is already estimated around $136B and is projected toward ~$193B by the end of the decade. When airlines can’t get new aircraft, they have to maintain what they already own. One number really puts the setup into perspective: the global commercial fleet is now roughly 30,000 aircraft, with the average aircraft age approaching 13 years. At the same time, the industry still has an enormous aircraft backlog roughly 17,000 jets meaning the replacement cycle can’t catch up quickly enough to solve the aging-fleet problem. More flying hours on older aircraft generally means more inspections, component repairs, parts consumption and heavy checks. And there’s another hidden bottleneck: parts supply. Aircraft teardowns normally replenish the used-serviceable-material market, but airlines are holding onto older aircraft instead of retiring them, reducing the flow of parts into the secondary market. Meanwhile, skilled labor, certified repair capacity and hangar slots are difficult to add overnight. Supply-chain disruption was estimated to cost airlines more than $11B in 2025 through additional maintenance, engine leasing and excess-spares costs. For aftermarket companies, those industry problems can become revenue opportunities. That creates a fascinating supply problem. Fewer aircraft are being retired and torn down, which reduces the supply of used parts at the exact time utilization is rising. At the same time, certified technicians, repair capacity, hangar slots and component turnaround times are all difficult to expand quickly. The scarce asset isn’t just the airplane it’s the part and the capacity to keep it flying. This is why I’m watching the aftermarket names more closely. $VSEC, $HEI, $TDG, $FTAI, $ASLE, $WWD and $TGI all have different pieces of the theme. Some have proprietary parts, some specialize in MRO, some own engine assets and others benefit from the growing need for used/serviceable components. There are also obvious demand gauges. $DAL, $UAL, $AAL and $LUV tell us what airline utilization looks like, while $GE and $RTX give us another window into the engine and aerospace services cycle. But the independent aftermarket companies can be the more interesting expression because they’re selling into the maintenance bottleneck rather than waiting for a new aircraft order. I just posted the specific stock I’m researching to X Subs. 👀 If you want the deeper research, charts, catalysts, risks and new ideas I’m digging up before they hit the public feed, consider subscribing. It’s just $1/month for unlimited alpha and new ideas. There’s a lot more coming. 🥗🐐

ex-Anthropic Jacob Coxon says the core of the whole AI problem is the expected US-China race to recursive self-improvement "Yeah, I can add that to my mind, the core of the whole issue is the expectation of a global race to recursive self-improvement within the next few years, in particular between US and China. I think this is like the heart of the issue." "I also think expectation of this race is a motivating factor in leadership of these companies working to head straight for recursive self-improvement, and I think some sort of agreement globally about not entering that state of affairs is basically the key to the whole situation."

AAR to buy majority stake in MRO Holdings for $1.8B - WSJ Remember when deals were announced by the companies in a PR, instead of by the WSJ?

The $RELY circle of life

President Donald Trump said the US is working with Belarus to secure more supplies of potash amid a trade fight with Canada, a major supplier of the critical ingredient used in fertilizers bloomberg.com/news/articles/…