Arabian Peninsula 🧵(1/3): The Houthis claimed that they struck the world’s largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia on October 27 as part of their campaign against Saudi Arabia. ISW-CTP cannot verify the Houthis’ claim at the time of this update, however. The Houthis claimed that they struck the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia with a ballistic missile on October 27 for the first time in the 2026 fighting. The Houthis had previously refrained from targeting Saudi Arabia’s most significant oil facilities in this current conflict and may have targeted Ras Tanura to increase pressure on Saudi Arabia to compel it to concede to Houthi demands, following reports that Saudi Arabia and the Houthis failed to arrive at a ceasefire agreement during negotiations in Iran on October 26. An Iranian source told Emirati media on October 27 that the Houthis conditioned any ceasefire agreement on Saudi Arabia lifting its blockade of Houthi-controlled airports, which Saudi Arabia presumably rejected. The Houthis separately claimed to have struck King Khalid Air Base, Abha International Airport, and Najran International Airport in Saudi Arabia in addition to the Saudi Defense Ministry headquarters in Riyadh on October 27. The Saudi Joint Forces Command reported that Saudi air defenses intercepted five ballistic missiles and four drones over Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, on October 27.

NEW: SPECIAL REPORT | How Hezbollah Is Preventing Its Disarmament, Again Hezbollah supporters blocked roads in Beirut and protested the Lebanese government’s attempts to assert sovereignty on October 16 and 17, after a series of government internal security raids compromised Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling, illicit finance, and de facto statelets within Lebanon. Lebanese government initiatives to disarm Hezbollah over the past two decades failed because Hezbollah repeatedly succeeded in coercing the government to abandon its course. Hezbollah is a formidable military organization even after recent setbacks. It has ample weaponry, some (albeit decreased) support among Lebanon’s Shia population, and an institutionalized role in the Lebanese government. Hezbollah views efforts to deter it as an existential threat, and dismantling Hezbollah’s military organization would be akin to the destruction of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not a political party; it is a military force that created a political party and social apparatus to protect itself. The United States and international partners must support the LAF’s disarmament efforts and ensure that the Lebanese government outpaces Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts to wrest popular support from the group. There are two key areas where the United States can use limited resources to realize outsized gains: 1. Reconstruction Aid: The United States, Lebanon, and international partners must carefully manage and provide reconstruction aid to southern Lebanon through government institutions that Hezbollah has not infiltrated. 2. Military Advisers: A relatively small force of US advisers may be able to have an outsized effect on the capabilities of the Lebanese army.