"Data driven stories and analysis on politics, culture, technology, and world events." | AI & Data Science | Research + Mathematician - Neurodivergent (Autism)
United States
Joined January 2022
- Tweets11.6K
- Following1.8K
- Followers3.4K
- Likes39.7K
Pinned Tweet
๐๐๐ญ๐ก & ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐: ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
Many people here on X throw around averages and per capita statistics without understanding that these are descriptive statistics.
Descriptive analytics tells us WHAT happened.
Diagnostic analytics helps us understand WHY it happened.
One common diagnostic technique is contribution analysis, which examines the factors that may be contributing to a particular outcome and it estimates their relative impact.
For exampleโฆ
Discussions about crime often stop at per capita rates. While per capita statistics can describe differences between groups, they do NOT, by themselves, explain WHY those differences exist.
Contribution analysis can help evaluate the relative impact of variables such as poverty, unemployment, education, age demographics, neighborhood conditions, economic opportunity, etcโฆ
Why label an entire group of people as bad?
It is low effort bias and ignorance...
This diagnostic approach helps us to move the conversation from these simplistic conclusions to a deeper understanding of the drivers BEHIND crime rates and other social outcomes.
Rather than saying, "Blacks commit more crime,"ย
Ask insteadโฆ
What factors contributed to the observed differences, and which factors have the greatest impact?
That's where diagnostic analytics comes in.
What are your thoughts?.
#crime #math #statistics #data
Okay Andrewโฆ
You are stating that two parent homes produce better outcomes for children.
This is mathematically true...
But where is your model proving that feminism is the isolated variable that caused single parent homes?
What other contributing factors did you control for in that formula?
Letโs say you are correct that feminism is the primary driver. What actually caused the emergence of feminism?
Feminism is a symptom. It is a by product. It only exists as a response to real systemic challenges, and abuse.
If those conditions didn't exist at that magnitude, the movement wouldn't have been needed.
Respectfully, your diagnostics are backward. You are blaming the symptom instead of analyzing the root conditions that occurred PRIOR to the existence of feminism.
Whatever CAUSED feminism to manifest in the first place are the true variables that disrupted the traditional family structure.
Are you really going to blame the symptom and not the root cause?
(I had to quote post as the comment section is hard to follow. I can limit comments or make it private. Let me know what you feel comfortable with.)
Gradient Descent, Recommendation Engines ๐๐ฝ .
Math & Statistics 101 - Gradient Descent
Gradient descent is the learning mechanism behind many AI models. After each prediction, the model calculates its error and updates its weights.
For exampleโฆ
Imagine building an AI model designed to forecast election outcomes.
Hypothetical the model could be trained on historical election results, polling data, demographic trends, and voter turnout statistics.
During training, the model would make predictions, compare them to actual election results, and calculate where there is error.
We would use gradient descent; this would then adjust its internal parameters to reduce that error.
Gradient descent is NOT predicting elections itself. Rather, it is the mathematical technique that we use to help an AI model LEARN from past data and improve its predictions over time.
This process would repeat thousands of times, and gradually improve the model's ability to recognize patterns in the data.
In theory, the result would be a model that estimates the probability of different election outcomes based on the information it has learned.
Obviously this is unpredictable because voting relies on human behavior.
What are your thoughts?.
A Human Hybrid?
One of the most fascinating discoveries in human evolution is a young individual whose mother was Neanderthal and father Denisovan, making her the first direct hybrid ever identified.
Whatโs interesting is that her Denisovan father already had Neanderthal ancestry in his lineageโฆ
Adding to that point, studies indicate that East Asians generally carry more Neanderthal DNA than Europeans do.
Human evolution wasn't a series of isolated branches.
Weโve been intermixing for a very long time and in my opinion , there isnโt a human being that comes from a pure โraceโ.
We are all predominantly Homo Sapien with ancestry that may include Denisovan, Neanderthal as well as the โGhostโ archaic species.
What are your thoughts? .
Video credit @DNAUncovered on YouTube
#history #DNA
๐๐๐ญ๐ก & ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐: ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง (Feminism Diagnostic)
I've gone over several diagnostic formulas and techniques.ย Today, let's discuss linear regression.
Linear regression is a way of finding patterns in data to understand how one thing relates to another.
It draws what we call a best fit line through data points to identify trends and to answer certain questions.
Letโs apply how we would explore the questions related to feminism.
A common claim is that declining birth rates and the decline of US culture are caused by feminism.
A weak analysis would be...
Birth rates fell, feminism increased, therefore feminism caused the decline.
A stronger analysis would be...
Why did feminism emerge in the first place, and what other factors influence birth rates?
Feminism can be viewed as a response to underlying social conditions, not just as an independent causal factor.ย If that's true, then a proper diagnostic should investigate those conditions as well.
What many people do is isolate feminism as a variable while failing to DIAGNOSE feminism itself.
Does that make sense?
I agree there may be a correlation between feminism and declining birth rates. However, correlation does not prove causation.
Regression might show that feminism and birth rates are related.
Diagnostic analytics asks a deeper questionโฆ
Are both feminism and declining birth rates consequences of broader social, cultural, and economic forces that caused feminism to emerge in the first place?
Regression identifies relationships. Diagnostics investigates root causes.
#Feminism
Samantha Glover retweeted
I believe it was a NYC police commissioner back in the 80s that found something interesting. You can do away with race, age and income level (to a point). But basically he found out (it was replicated across many cities, not just NYC), that more than 90% of crimes happened in 5% of neighborhoods. Within those neighborhoods, most all crimes happen within a couple of blocks of that neighborhood.
And it didn't matter the crime, it could be violent, property, theft, prostitution, drug trafficking and etc. Most all could be attributed to a few blocks in any given city.
Samantha Glover retweeted
He's talking rubbish.
Even if technology advances to that point, men and women can't live without each other
In the future, can men and women reproduce without each other?
What Andrew Wilson is stating is purely theoretical and not possible today.
Howeverโฆ what he doesnโt realize is that, theoretically, it is significantly more possible for women to reproduce without men than vice versa. Even if men used artificial wombs.
What Andrew Wilson is referring to is an artificial womb, which would only replace the uterus, you would still need a biological female egg.
I can post a few sources in the comments.
Therefore BOTH men and women could potentially and theoretically make each other OBSOLETE.
Respectfully, Andrew Wilson didnโt fully do his research and only presented one side of this.
Right now, we still need the traditional biological building blocks.
We need one egg from a woman, one sperm from a man, and a human womb to carry the pregnancy.
Today, we do not have artificial wombs that can grow a human baby from scratch.
The next stage of developing a successful artificial womb would still require a female egg and male sperm.
Scientists have created what are called bio bags, that can keep prematurely born lambs alive, and they can grow human embryos in containers for a few days in a lab, but a full nine month artificial pregnancy does not yet exist.
I can post a few sources to back this up, but it comes down to genetics, scientists have already successfully bred healthy mice from two mothers, while doing the same with two fathers failed because male cells require far MORE complex genetic editing to successfully build an embryo.
As per usual, this might backfire on men and women.
It may however potentially be a good thingโฆ
What are your thoughts?
Samantha Glover retweeted
If the goal, even in business is to understand what contributes to certain outcomes such as low or high sales.
Have you considered applying diagnostic methods; such as a Contribution Analysis?
Understanding the โWHYโ is how you design solutions.
Read more ๐๐ฝ.
๐๐๐ญ๐ก & ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐: ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
Many people here on X throw around averages and per capita statistics without understanding that these are descriptive statistics.
Descriptive analytics tells us WHAT happened.
Diagnostic analytics helps us understand WHY it happened.
One common diagnostic technique is contribution analysis, which examines the factors that may be contributing to a particular outcome and it estimates their relative impact.
For exampleโฆ
Discussions about crime often stop at per capita rates. While per capita statistics can describe differences between groups, they do NOT, by themselves, explain WHY those differences exist.
Contribution analysis can help evaluate the relative impact of variables such as poverty, unemployment, education, age demographics, neighborhood conditions, economic opportunity, etcโฆ
Why label an entire group of people as bad?
It is low effort bias and ignorance...
This diagnostic approach helps us to move the conversation from these simplistic conclusions to a deeper understanding of the drivers BEHIND crime rates and other social outcomes.
Rather than saying, "Blacks commit more crime,"ย
Ask insteadโฆ
What factors contributed to the observed differences, and which factors have the greatest impact?
That's where diagnostic analytics comes in.
What are your thoughts?.
#crime #math #statistics #data
In the future, can men and women reproduce without each other?
What Andrew Wilson is stating is purely theoretical and not possible today.
Howeverโฆ what he doesnโt realize is that, theoretically, it is significantly more possible for women to reproduce without men than vice versa. Even if men used artificial wombs.
What Andrew Wilson is referring to is an artificial womb, which would only replace the uterus, you would still need a biological female egg.
I can post a few sources in the comments.
Therefore BOTH men and women could potentially and theoretically make each other OBSOLETE.
Respectfully, Andrew Wilson didnโt fully do his research and only presented one side of this.
Right now, we still need the traditional biological building blocks.
We need one egg from a woman, one sperm from a man, and a human womb to carry the pregnancy.
Today, we do not have artificial wombs that can grow a human baby from scratch.
The next stage of developing a successful artificial womb would still require a female egg and male sperm.
Scientists have created what are called bio bags, that can keep prematurely born lambs alive, and they can grow human embryos in containers for a few days in a lab, but a full nine month artificial pregnancy does not yet exist.
I can post a few sources to back this up, but it comes down to genetics, scientists have already successfully bred healthy mice from two mothers, while doing the same with two fathers failed because male cells require far MORE complex genetic editing to successfully build an embryo.
As per usual, this might backfire on men and women.
It may however potentially be a good thingโฆ
What are your thoughts?
Respectfully, this is terribleโฆ
Rachel Wilson is offering an unscientific diagnostic analysis as to why society is struggling, casually blaming it all on feminism.
In my opinion, Wilson lacks a grounding in data science and methodological reasoning.
From an economic standpoint, stripping women of voting and equal rights would cause a market collapse.
America simply couldn't compete globally without the full, equal participation of women.
Too many of these commentators misapply data, jumping to conclusions that completely bypass logic and science.
If Rachel Wilson genuinely believes women should be silent and stay at home, it is odd that she is constantly talking on a podcastโฆ
I genuinely wonder if she even believes what she's selling?
Feminism is why she has the option to speak on a podcast and to have a choiceโฆ
โThe fastest way to lose personal liberty is to enfranchise all women to vote and give them equal political power with men.โ
@Rach4Patriarchy explains how feminism has expanded the welfare state, fueled mass migration from the third world, and undermined individual liberties.
Samantha Glover retweeted
Don't let pressure make you spend what you haven't earned.
Fake lifestyles often create real problems.
Live within your means and sleep peacefully.
Samantha Glover retweeted
Why I continue to speak up:
To break the cycle of abuse
To combat widespread prevalence
To drive policy and Lega action
To connect victims to support services
To challenge harmful norms #justiceforhanifa is justice for everyone: c.org/6SSvLrBJTM
@Parliament_Ug @pwatchug @UWOPA @DailyMonitor @newvisionwire @nilepostnews @AWID @FIDA_Uganda @wougnet
If the goal, even in business is to understand what contributes to certain outcomes such as low or high sales.
Have you considered applying diagnostic methods; such as a Contribution Analysis?
Understanding the โWHYโ is how you design solutions.
Read more ๐๐ฝ.
๐๐๐ญ๐ก & ๐๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐: ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ข๐ฌ
Many people here on X throw around averages and per capita statistics without understanding that these are descriptive statistics.
Descriptive analytics tells us WHAT happened.
Diagnostic analytics helps us understand WHY it happened.
One common diagnostic technique is contribution analysis, which examines the factors that may be contributing to a particular outcome and it estimates their relative impact.
For exampleโฆ
Discussions about crime often stop at per capita rates. While per capita statistics can describe differences between groups, they do NOT, by themselves, explain WHY those differences exist.
Contribution analysis can help evaluate the relative impact of variables such as poverty, unemployment, education, age demographics, neighborhood conditions, economic opportunity, etcโฆ
Why label an entire group of people as bad?
It is low effort bias and ignorance...
This diagnostic approach helps us to move the conversation from these simplistic conclusions to a deeper understanding of the drivers BEHIND crime rates and other social outcomes.
Rather than saying, "Blacks commit more crime,"ย
Ask insteadโฆ
What factors contributed to the observed differences, and which factors have the greatest impact?
That's where diagnostic analytics comes in.
What are your thoughts?.
#crime #math #statistics #data