Samir Varma (@samirvarma) header
Samir Varma (@samirvarma) profile picture

Physicist, author, inventor, hedge fund manager, green tech pioneer. Beatles & Pink Floyd fan. I love AI, physics, science, markets, economics, squash, guitar.

Greenwich, CT
Joined March 2009
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Dutch turntable maker Miniot reinvented the Wheel. Should vinyl lovers care? | Stereophile.com stereophile.com/content/dutc…
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"Fertility rates may someday stabilize around a low level, but to project they will do so is to project that the future of fertility dynamics will, on average, be unlike its past." nber.org/system/files/workin…
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Anthropic gave Claude a constitution. Madison designed for the day good character fails. Why AI safety needs rival interests, inspection, and something to lose. samirvarma.substack.com/p/if…
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Guess who's back? It's bad air // India’s AQI wrapped 2015-2025. #badairdays #hawahawa #airpollution
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WHEN THE ADRENALINE DRIES UP: AN IAS PERSPECTIVE “What a fall was there, my countrymen!” Prabhu Dayal's delightful account in The Sunday Statesman of an Ambassador's descent from diplomatic grandeur to the gridlock of Gurgaon made me smile. But in the eternal one-upmanship—and downmanship—of the civil services, I cannot let an IFS officer ten years my junior steal all the thunder! Tehran, Rabat and Kuwait were privileged postings in a diplomatic fairyland which, alas, had to end. And retiring to Gurgaon's Golf Course Road is hardly exile to Siberia! For the IAS, the descent is rather different. The first decade after retirement may disappear into commissions, tribunals and advisory assignments. Some offer meaningful work. Others provide an office, a driver, a visiting card and precious little to do. The ultimate prize is often the government house that comes with the appointment. “Ghar toh rahega na?” is the question batchmates ask with unconcealed interest. Retaining government accommodation is the ultimate badge of continued importance. Eventually, most move to Gurgaon, NOIDA, Mayur Vihar, Vasant Kunj or DDA flats. Life isn't bad. There are helpful neighbours, old friends, lunches at the IIC and batch gatherings at the CSOI. A community that looks after its own, asks for help and usually gets it. But what does an IAS officer really miss? Retirement is a certainty, not an option, however many extensions are granted along the way. What does one miss? Not the bungalow, official car or personal staff who anticipated every need. One learns to buy vegetables from Safal, manage part-time help and occasionally take an Uber or auto when the driver doesn't show up. Everyone adjusts. What is harder to surrender is the ability to get things done. For decades, IAS officers have lived on the adrenaline of making things happen. Joining dots others don't see. Bringing institutions together. Cutting through obstacles, stopping nonsense, anticipating crises, planning something that might transform people's lives—and occasionally pulling it off magnificently. Not every officer succeeds. Some barely try. But exercising authority intelligently, turning ideas into action, is what makes the job absorbing. When the political executive trusts you and gives you independence, it is exhilarating. Wonderful things happen. Embarrassments are foreseen and forestalled. During the Vajpayee and Sheila Dikshit years, I saw political leadership set the direction while giving officers room to initiate, innovate and deliver and protect the government from criticism. It worked quite often- not always..From what one hears, nowadays officers perhaps implement decisions more often than spearhead reform. But even that requires ability and acumen. Governments may centralise decisions, but not the thousands of actions needed to make them work. Policies don't implement themselves. Someone must anticipate problems, coordinate departments, manage resources, persuade reluctant institutions and deliver results. A capable civil service remains indispensable, whatever the political dispensation. The IAS has glaring faults and itself needs reform. Twenty-two years after my own retirement, following several rewarding assignments, the distinction seems clearer than ever to me. The real loss is not of status or privilege. It is of the opportunity to be useful. An Ambassador may miss diplomatic grandeur and participation in transfirmative geopolitical negotiations. An IAS officer however misses something closer to his chest. It is the power to translate ideas into visible action. And perhaps the greater irony is that a country which spends decades developing administrative experience allows so much of it to acquire an expiry date. Irrelevance, not inconvenience, is retirement's most bitter medicine.
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The AI Agents Pitching Lit Mags to Stay Alive bookgossip.substack.com/p/th…. It is unfolding pretty much as I said in my book: amzn.to/4aMQJD1.
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What if gravity should change quantum mechanics, rather than obey it? A new book turns the question around—and proposes a tabletop experiment to test the idea. samirvarma.substack.com/p/wh…
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My friend Bob Jensen has written a great book called This I don't Believe: A fulfilling life without meaning. If you want a free copy, please email him at [email protected]. My blurb for the book was: "You can give up God, spirit, Nature and Free Will; accept that most of reality is permanently beyond us; and still wake up early, do your work, walk the dogs, and find that enough." US addresses only--Bob isn't charging for shipping.
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Samir Varma retweeted
I blame @Noahpinion
Researchers proved every LLM is secretly obsessed with Japan. And they finally figured out why. They published a paper investigating hidden cultural biases in large language models. they tested 31,000 questions across 24 different languages on models like gemini, chatgpt, claude, and llama. they stripped out all geographic hints and just asked the models to pick a place and answer. the finding was universal.. across a wide range of models and languages, there is a pervasive "obsession" with japanese culture. even when you prompt them in a language with zero ties to japan, they default to japanese norms, values, and aesthetics at a disproportionately high rate compared to its actual global demographic weight. the craziest part? they tracked down exactly when the ai develops this obsession.. and it is not from reading the raw internet. during pre-training, the models actually have a fairly balanced, global view of the world. the obsession gets injected during the safety phase. when tech companies fine-tune these models to be "helpful, harmless, and polite," the ai starts mapping those corporate safety guidelines directly onto japanese cultural concepts. in the pursuit of creating the perfect, inoffensive, compliant assistant, they warped how the models view the world. the quantization process (compressing models to run faster locally) actually amplifies this determinism. the smaller and faster your local model is, the more stereotypically it behaves, causing japanese cultural tropes to spike hard. we spend all this time worrying about existential ai safety, but the real alignment problem is that our most advanced reasoning engines are hyper-fixated on japanese internet culture. every model upgrade is reinforcing an invisible regional bias that dictates how they generate stories, facts, and code. the cultural commonsense of the internet is not universal.. it’s just localized to whatever the heaviest reddit and anime wiki users were obsessed with.
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