Author, The Flaw of Averages and Chancification. Creator of the SIPmath standard for representing uncertainty, Executive Director, 501c3 ProbabilityManagement.
Palo Alto, CA
Joined May 2009
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Turing Test: A test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.
Savage Test: A test of a human's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of an AI.
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Everyone knows that the fuss over abortion will blow over as soon as women stop ovulating. The difference of opinion was whether this would happen before or after the election.
Definition – Probability Distribution: Nine syllable term meaning “Chance,” which triggers Post Traumatic Statistics Disorder (PTSD). Visit ChanceAge.com for my latest Webinars.
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Welcome to the Chance Age. A two part webinar series which includes the full version of ChanceCalc and an e-copy of my latest book Chancification. probabilitymanagement.org/ch…
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Heads up Elon, Jeff and NASA. Here's something valuable you can mine on the moon and ship back to earth economically, once you have electricity: Cryptocurrency.
Putin is done for. The only question is if he will take the rest of us with him. I asked Jeff Danziger how he thought the guy might look in a nuclear suicide vest. Here is his sensitive portrayal of a man in torment.
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Tucker Carlson embodies the greatness of our democracy because there is a 15 year sentence for being Russian Tucker.
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A Four Part Peace Plan
1.Ukraine becomes a permanent part of Russia
2.Putin is pardoned of potential war crimes and keeps his wealth
3.Zelensky becomes President of Greater Russia
4.Russian troops must leave Ukraine and put everything back the way they found it
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I'll divulge the results of my analysis if you don't have time to read the blog. If the unvaccinated got the shot, but then rewarded themselves with the increased civil liberty of not wearing their seatbelt, they would be much safer.
probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
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My blog this week describes how to increase your personal liberty while simultaneously fighting COVID19.
probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
Is your organization making chance-informed decisions? See my current blog.
probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
ELECTRIFICATION replaces technologies using fossil fuels with those using electricity. CHANCIFICATION replaces calculations using numbers with those using probabiliities. See my recent article and blog. pubsonline.informs.org/do/10… probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
With equitable risk sharing Ever Given and cargo should have been vaporized by space lasers after 2hr 30min stuck in Suez. Smaller MOL Comfort sank in 2013 with $400M in claims. Based on size maybe EG is worth $1B, but costs world economy $400M/hr.
Will the fact that Trump incited a mob to lynch his Vice President in 2021 complicate his choice for a running-mate in 2024?
Scoop of the year! Navalny has a detailed conversation with a member of his hit squad about why they didn't manage to kill him. The complete interview is at youtu.be/ibqiet6Bg38
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by Kay & King makes some good points on the over-reliance of probabalistic models. But it is 500 pages. I suggest that you start with my commentary which is only 5 pages. probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
The hallmark of a successful technology is that the number of people who know they are using it is the log of the number of people using it.
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EdX has just published my free Stanford Online course on Probability Management at edx.org/course/introduction-….
#ProbabilityManagement, #FlawOfAverages
FLYING INTO THE EYE OF THE PANDEMIC -
What do managing the pandemic and flying a plane have in common? Plenty. They are both subject to oscillations due to lagged indicators. See my blog at probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
Justin Schell invited Sarah Lukens and me to a discussion of Simulation Trials vs. Scenarios. Trials: Shaking a ladder to check steadiness. Scenarios: Are you working over broken beer bottles or a shark tank? See Blog and Video.
probabilitymanagement.org/bl…
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