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The Fed didn't cut rates. The Fed didn't raise rates. But TWO policymakers wanted to. That's arguably the biggest headline from today's FOMC decision.

🦅 HAWKISH FED SIGNAL: The Fed describes economic activity as expanding at a "strong pace," with robust capital investment, resilient spending and elevated inflation. Add two votes for a rate HIKE, and today's statement leans hawkish.

The Fed held rates steady, but the 10-2 vote tells a bigger story. Both dissenters wanted HIGHER rates. With strong economic growth and persistent inflation, the bar for another rate cut may be rising.

10/28 FED DECISION TL;DR: • Rates held at 3.75%-4.00% • Vote: 10-2 • Both dissenters wanted a HIKE • Economic growth remains strong • Labor market holding steady • Inflation still elevated The Fed is in no rush to ease.

TWO Fed officials wanted to RAISE interest rates today. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted for a 25-basis-point hike. The majority voted to hold rates at 3.75%-4.00%. A notably hawkish split at the Fed.

JUST IN: The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.75%-4.00%, as expected. The vote was 10-2, with TWO officials dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point HIKE. No rate cuts. Two votes for higher rates.

Could skipping an October rate hike force the Fed to do MORE in December? Mizuho thinks so. Its economists expect markets could eventually price 30-35 basis points of tightening for December as inflation pressures persist. A pause today doesn't necessarily mean a dovish Fed.

Bank of America says the Fed has a strong case to hike TODAY. Why? Inflation has worsened since September. But markets see only a 10% chance of a move, and policymakers appear reluctant to surprise investors. The Fed is balancing inflation risks against market expectations.

The most interesting FOMC thing from today might be dissents.. Economists expect 1-3 hawkish dissents if Fed holds steady. Hammack & Logan are potential dissenters, & Kashkari another possibility. A divided Fed could send a stronger tightening signal than the decision itself.

Fed Chair Warsh has made a point of avoiding explicit forward guidance. But Wall Street wants one thing from today's press conference: A signal that December's expected rate hike is still on track. Nomura expects Warsh to implicitly support another hike without committing.

The Fed may pause today, but inflation isn't cooperating. Sep wholesale prices surged 7.8% Y/Y, according to the latest report. Mizuho warns inflation could accelerate through EOY, potentially forcing the Fed to make up for today's pause with more aggressive tightening in Dec.

FED DECISION TODAY: • Expected: HOLD at 3.75%-4.00% • October hike probability: Just 10% • December hike: Widely expected • Potential hawkish dissents: 1-3 The rate decision may be predictable.. What Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says afterward could move markets, though.

One interesting finding from GS: Treasury yields typically rise BEFORE the Fed's first rate hike. In modest tightening cycles, yields tend to peak shortly afterward. In larger cycles, they keep climbing. The bond market often does much of its repricing BEFORE the Fed acts.

The first Fed rate hike often triggers anxiety on Wall Street. But history tells a different story. Per Goldman Sachs, stocks tend to weaken immediately after the first hike before recovering quickly. The initial selloff hasn't historically meant the bull market is over.

“Today’s FOMC should be pretty straightforward. Hold at 3.75%-4.00%, probably with a couple of dissents from the more hawkish members. Hammack and Logan are the obvious candidates, though Kashkari might join the party.” @lebas_janney

$VRT showing the picks n shovels play is still kicking 50-day P/C skew was in the 100th %ile btw

Goldman Sachs finds that stocks historically recover quickly from weakness following the first Fed rate hike. The catch? Most historical tightening cycles were larger and longer than the modest cycle currently anticipated. REMEMBER: History offers a roadmap, not a guarantee.

The Fed's first rate hike isn't necessarily a sell signal. Goldman Sachs finds stocks typically struggle initially, then rebound relatively quickly. The bigger question for traders is whether the Fed delivers a modest tightening cycle or something more aggressive...

$ENPH is down 8% after earnings, and the Q4 outlook may be the biggest problem. Revenue guidance: $225M–$255M Wall Street expected: $305.15M Even the HIGH end falls more than $50M short of consensus. A tough outlook for residential solar.