不撓不屈 Investing/trading. Writing Japan Special Situations. Head of Markets @laevitas1. Prev: JPM, Orca Global, Presto

Tokyo
Joined September 2021
I wrote about Metal Art (TSE:5644). A failed take-private of a 110-year-old metal-forging company, where the bidder named its adversary and published the model of its own defeat. japanspecialsituations.subst…
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My daily routine of doomscrolling used car websites has been interrupted.
皆様に、今夜に対応して頂きたい大至急のお願いです。   多くのウェブサイトで使用されているPHPに関し、PHPのセキュリティチームが、重大な2件の脆弱性に関する注意喚起を行っています。   公開しているウェブサイトでPHPを使用しているか確認し、今夜、10月21日午後11時(日本時間)に公開される修正パッチについて、可及的速やかに適用できるよう準備をお願いします。   修正パッチを速やかに適用することが困難な場合は、例えばウェブサイト等を一時的に停止させることも、リスクを低減させるための有効策の一つと考えられます。   国家サイバー統括室のXアカウントでも関係する情報を発信していますので、そちらも参考にして下さい。 国家サイバー統括室(注意・警戒情報)(@cyber_forecast) / X
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Tokyo
能登から帰ると東京がまぶしすぎる。
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I love my culture.
38歳独身男性 一蘭で1人パーティーです🥲🍜🍚🥚✨ (税込3,510円)
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Japanese stocks, weekly performance: TOPIX -0.95% Gainers: Pharmaceutical (+6.05%), Automobiles & Transportation Equipment (+4.32%), Commercial & Wholesale Trade (+3.72%). Losers: Steel & Nonferrous Metals (-9.42%), Electric Appliances & Precision Instruments (-6.32%), Machinery (-2.63%).
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Fascinating thread. Japanese, Chinese and Koreans discussing Western Europe’s relative strengths.
1人あたりGDPで日本、韓国、台湾、中国といった東アジアの経済大国が欧州の経済大国(英独仏伊)に及ばないのってなんでなんだろう。一番高い韓国と台湾ですらイタリア未満だし。
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Not very bullish for $META
Mark Zuckerberg pretending to enjoy Guinness is my new favourite thing.
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Japanese stocks, weekly performance: TOPIX +0.34% Gainers: Foods (+3.29%), Automobiles & Transportation Equipment (+2.13%), Raw Materials & Chemicals (+1.99%). Losers: Banks (-2.98%), Steel & Nonferrous Metals (-2.69%), Energy Resources (-1.39%).
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gonna send my kids to the RRL kindergarten
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Japanese stocks, weekly performance: TOPIX -0.91%. Gainers: Steel and Nonferrous Metals (+5.13%), Electric Appliances and Precision Instruments (+3.33%), Machinery (+0.61%). Losers: Financials (Ex Banks) (-5.40%), Pharmaceutical (-5.03%), Energy Resources (-4.97%), Real Estate (-4.81%).
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1/ Crazy velocity in the current bond sell-off. 30Y yield up 35bp in the last 7 sessions. Since 1987 (beginning of my TradingView data), that is the 98.95th percentile of all 7-session moves, with only 90 out of 8,556 larger.
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3/ On that basis, this is the 6th-largest non-overlapping 7-session bond sell-off since 1987. The five larger episodes ended in: > Mar-20 > Apr-94 > Sep-19 > Nov-01 > Jun-07
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4/ The broader sell-off itself isn't nearly as unusual: 30Y yields are +37bp over 20 sessions and +58bp over 60. Big moves but ~94th and ~92nd historical percentiles respectively. So most of the interesting part happened in the last week or so: 35bp of the 37bp 20-session move happened in the last 7 sessions. So, yes, bonds have been selling off for a while but whats now interesting is the change in velocity.
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The Fed’s covid reaction function clearly pushed the sexuality complex well through fair value.
Add the Fed Funds Rate to this chart, and it all becomes clear
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>forced to liquidate $16bn position >will “learn the necessary lessons” >immediately starts bidding tech stocks
🤖 Made with AI
FT Exclusive: AI hedge fund Situational Awareness became the biggest prime brokerage client at Goldman Sachs this year. ft.trib.al/49NkFdZ
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Still crazy to me how much Tether (which holds more US debt than Germany, UAE, etc) STILL struggles to access the global financial/banking network… Probably the most profitable company on a per employee basis btw.
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