SecureZero retweeted
So if I bet $100 on basically the same market, I pay the following fees:
- Hyperliquid: ~$0.015
- Polymarket: $3.82
That's a difference of up to 250x
SecureZero retweeted
I’ve been one of the biggest market makers on Polymarket for a long time. At peak I was doing $10M+ daily volume and paying thousands in fees every single day.
The current state is the worst the platform has ever felt.
Ghost fills still everywhere. Markets constantly breaking. Payouts randomly missing. Exploits going on for months while the team says “it’s fixed”. You spend more time defending against bugs than actually trading.
Meanwhile, communication is a joke.
They say “we’re listening” → ignore emails, ignore DMs.
They say “we’ll work with top users” → instead it’s random private Telegram groups with whoever shouts the loudest.
They say “issue fixed” → it clearly isn’t.
At some point you stop believing anything they say.
The fee situation is another one. If you’re generating serious volume and paying serious fees (thousands a day), most exchanges shower you with attention and perks. I'm not asking for that but would be nice to at least be acknowledged that you exist and have basic communication, especially after they've announced publicly multiple times that they will start doing this.
Instead we got a week-long hype campaign for a “big update” that turned out to be… a hidden fee increase.
How dumb do you think your users are?
And then stuff like April 5th, missed referral/rebate payments, no announcement, no explanation, nothing. Just silence. That’s not a bug, that’s trust damage.
The bigger issue is it feels like nobody on the team has actual trading experience. The design decisions show it. Every update introduces new edge cases, new exploits, new ways to break the order book.
People have made many millions exploiting this stuff. Many of these accounts are obvious, trackable, preventable. The community has been pointing it out for months.
Ignored.
Only now that the markets are borderline unusable does it seem like there’s urgency. Right now the platform is honestly close to untradeable:
– ghost fills
– manipulation
– unreliable payouts
– constant bugs
– zero transparency
And surprise, volume is dropping.
Meanwhile Kalshi is catching up fast (have basically overtaken in volume in almost every category except for politics) and Hyperliquid is entering with a team that actually understands trading systems.
I want Polymarket to succeed.
And yes, maybe the upcoming ghost fill fix helps. But if this pattern continues, terrible communication, fake timelines, ignoring core users, then this won’t be a place serious traders stick around.
You can’t build a market while eroding the trust of the people who provide the liquidity, especially not as a many multi billion dollar company! I have spoken to many large polymarket whales (of which a considerable amount have already given up on the platform) and they all share this sentiment.
@Polymarket @mustafap0ly @SuhailKakar @_kanarazu_
SecureZero retweeted
This is my 3rd week as VP of Engineering DeFi at @Polymarket , and I'm going to be straight: the traction @Polymarket has seen has massively outpaced our infrastructure, and we haven't done nearly enough to scale to keep up. I hear you, and fixing this is our entire focus. We're a major company now, and we need to engineer like one. Here's exactly what we're doing:
- Onchain data latency. We're working on making this near-instant so the experience is incredible.
- Chain migration. We need more block space, cheaper gas and much smaller block times so settlement is instant.
- Transactions are getting cancelled. We understand this is one of the most frustrating issues right now, and we have a complete fix coming very soon.
- Massive focus on the website to make it faster, more responsive, and with better UX.
- We added observability everywhere. Proper alerting so we catch issues ourselves, market makers should not be the ones telling us something is down. That's been unacceptable, and we know it.
- E2e tests throughout, starting with the CLOB, so issues get caught in CI before anything ships.
- CLOBv2 is not a rewrite. It won't improve performance or stability on its own; it's an upgrade that unlocks us to move fast right after. We'll do better with communication next time.
- We are rebuilding the CLOB from the ground up. Most important thing we're doing. Without it, we can't be the best DeFi exchange in the world. We know it, we're on it, it's mission critical.
- Unified TypeScript SDK for all APIs, which is shipping soon.
- Unified API. One WS connection for everything, with a schema that's actually readable.
- New Polymarket contract in the works that unlocks things that are simply impossible on the current protocol.
- New hires: Head of QA Automation, Head of Dev Tooling, Head of Internal Tooling, Head of Data Engineering.
- Smaller, dedicated teams. Fewer focus points per person, clearer ownership. People do what they're good at and are accountable for it.
- Working closely with customer support to give them real debugging tools so any user issue gets properly diagnosed, not lost.
- Proper communication with marketing and market makers so everyone knows what's coming and when, and MM can submit feature requests with a clear path to get them into engineering and shipped.
- Working with 4 security teams daily to ensure we're super secure and that funds are always safe.
- Perps incoming. Brand new contracts and a backend built from scratch in Rust. We're proud of this one.
- A lot of other fixes are running in parallel right now.
Starting next Friday, I will be posting weekly engineering updates.
I joined because I genuinely believe in what @Polymarket is trying to do. @shayne_coplan built this so the world has somewhere to go to find out what's actually going to happen, not what the media thinks, not what a pundit says, but what thousands of people are willing to put money on. But right now, our engineering isn't living up to that. We've let people down, and I'm not going to dress that up. I came here to fix it, and that's exactly what we're going to do. The next few months are going to speak for themselves. Stay with us.
SecureZero retweeted
Here's a visual representation of how the new fee structure on @Polymarket destroyed the utility for takers for today's MLB slate.
Before the fees, Poly consistently had the best prices and deepest liquidity across most games. Now they have the best price 0/26 of the time for Moneyline bets today...
They’ve said they plan to improve the structure going forward because in its current form, it simply isn’t competitive. I’ll do my best to use my platform to keep pushing for a better betting ecosystem for everyone ✅
Not only do the high fees on @Polymarket ruin the platform for takers, they also distort the displayed price.
For example, the Hawks game shows -133 / +127, but executing the trade actually gives you -137 / +123.
Make sure to be paying extra attention on your bets today if you decide to make them on Polymarket. At least @Kalshi will display the correct taker price even though both of these platforms will now likely not have the best market price anymore.
SecureZero retweeted
THEORY : the whole 94% fee "mistake" was fabricated by Polymarket to double fees without users noticing
let me explain.
This was the old formula before the update that "broke" fees :
fee = C × p x feeRate × (p × (1 - p))^exponent
This is the formula in place now, after the "fix" :
fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 - p)
They are very different.
They didn't just revert to the old pre-fuckup formula.
Now let's plot the two.
Notice the difference ? The new formula leads to higher fees at almost every price point, and over 10x higher at cheap prices.
Using this simple trick, Polymarket diverted our attention and increased the fees by a *substantial* amount without anyone even noticing.
Gotta give it to them, if it was their plan, this was genius.
More seriously, i think it was just the kind of mistake you make when you built a startup culture of "ship fast and break things".
We can give them shit for it, but Prediction Markets wouldn't exist if these guys weren't willing to take risk.
You can't have the diligence of a bank and the innovation speed of a crypto startup
I hope it doesn't happen again but it wasn't so bad as some make it out to be
SecureZero retweeted
Love Polymarket, but their marketing approach and unserious attitude towards user funds is concerning
They're one of the major players that will determine if prediction markets become a real asset class, so I wish they'd be more responsible
Vent post below:
SecureZero retweeted
The downfall of @Polymarket continues… STAY AWAY
First, they introduced unnecessarily high fees, killing the majority of volume driven by arbitrage and other slim edge strategies.
If that wasn’t enough, this morning I placed a bet on the NRFI/YRFI market. Halfway through the day, well after bets were placed, they flipped the market.
Now, countless other users and I are stuck holding the opposite side of the original intended wager...
(ex: I wagered No run first inning and now I am holding Yes run first inning)
@shayne_coplan is so out of touch with his company’s operations that they’re about to erase all the momentum they built.
Best to avoid using this prediction market...
SecureZero retweeted
We dived deep into Polymarket data to understand how much MMs lose to snipers.
$311k sniped from MMs across 473 spikes in Feb 2026.
Loss-to-vol ratio: 1.38%.
In this 🧵 — what we found, why it matters, and why you should care if you're farming liquidity rewards.
Or just explore the sniping universe → sybil.exchange/spike-analysi…
SecureZero retweeted
All good things must come to an end.
I was an advocate for Polymarket for the sole reason that, without fees you could gamble and not be destined to lose long term. Now with these fees, the house has been introduced to the equation, the party that all gamblers despise.
The referral program exists so all the “influencers” can act as an intermediary between new users (that will likely lose long term) and Polymarket, taking a cut of the fees they generate.
So now I can lead lambs to their slaughter and profit in the process. I’m pretty undecided on doing so. Passive income and potential airdrop upside, but then I’m a sellout doing harm to the average person that reads my tweets.
There is a certain culpability that you take when encouraging via direct financial incentives users into trading where the supermajority see losses, many simply don’t want to be apart of that.
To center with such emphasis the act of referring users to the site with this carrot on a stick really leaves such an awful taste in the mouths of so many users who never liked the existence of the referral system in the first place.
Feels like the idea of “fair” or at least less exploitative gambling is dead, even if sharper users can still win.
The Polymarket team clearly wants the highly profitable traders to be active on social media which is why they deceived us into creating X accounts on the pretext of joining a leaderboard which never existed and instead only a referral link system which effectively none of the best traders utilize in any form was offered up as some consolation prize which many didn’t want to partake in and never did, now it’s effectively being forced on the rest who didn’t ask for this.
They have then went and tried to control what the users who haven’t exploited this easily exploitable system have to say on the platform we were asked to join far beyond a degree of censorship which is reasonable.
So go ahead and take my badge too if we’re censoring reasonable statements on a seismic shift on the function of the site, pushing users so much harder into this referral system that so many already despised when the only users actually using the prior referral system were many of the worst behaving actors on the platform, it’s extremely juvenile for a 20 billion dollar entity to engage in this type of petty retribution for what was ultimately a tame post about these changes.
Many of the users of the platform are not the type of people to sit idly by and be pushed around and babied on what we’re allowed to say or not especially when it’d be considered by most as well within reason especially given what ALL of us have silently put up with, largely without anyone airing ANY of it outside small communities and friend groups.
#freewanker
#justiceforwanker
SecureZero retweeted
15% ROI on 15k capital in one month
0 risk
No charts. No trading. No stress
Sounds like a scam right? It's not
Prediction markets arbitrage
You find price differences between platforms and exploit them. Platforms actually love you for it bc you're making them volume
Currently top 5k on 2 platforms
Farming airdrops while doing it
Notification hits my 2nd screen while i'm working. I open it. Execute. Done
This is the play i mentioned yesterday
Dm me "arb" and i'll send you the tool i use
SecureZero retweeted
Just finished a huge UPGRADE to my Polymarket Arbitrage Trading Bot
📈 $41,514 +EV - [ Right Now]
✳️ 1,032% Spread - [ Right Now]
#⃣ 3X More Arbitrage Opportunities
I had to break a lot of rules to get this to work,
If Polymarket finds out I might be in trouble...
But it was worth it!
I was able to bypass the restrictions that are holding back other Arbitrage Trading Bots
Here’s how it all works...
MARKET MATCHING
The bot is looking for arbitrages across 5 different Prediction Markets
To do that we are indexing millions of individual markets
To try to find the few thousand functionally identical pairs between platforms
That's billions of potential matches
To find the few thousand market pairs that are functionally equivalent between platforms we are using a four part matching system:
1. Keyword extraction, ranking & matching
2. Trigram, Jaccard & Vector hybrid matching algorithm of the market titles, close conditions, alternative titles & outcomes
3. LLM Prompt matching checking for functional equivalence of market rules
-> Incredibly inconsistent, hence the need for part 4, building a system like this at scale will open your eyes to the shortcomings of AI
4. Human verification
+ 99.8% Accuracy
+ 6,320 Markets Matched
Once we have our markets, we move onto..
ARBITRAGE DETECTION - [ UPGRADED ]
To detect if there is an arbitrage we need two things
Market Odds & Orderbooks
Market Odds: This will show us the ‘Spread’, if the sum of Market A YES & Market B NO is less than $1, or vice versa, we have a potential arbitrage
Orderbooks: This will show us the "EV", much we can arbitrage profit we can extract, according to the available liquidity and slippage of both orderbooks
This is where we had been severely limited in the past, due to inadequacies of the WebSocket feeds and API rate limits
Polymarket:
Orderbook initial dumps & entire orderbook price levels missing when connecting hundreds of markets to the WS feed, undisclosed multi-WS rate limits
Opinion:
API rate limits, WS delta updates missing, WS delta updates sent in wrong order, asks sent below best bid, airdrop farming bots posting and filling their own orders breaking WS feed.
Kalshi:
Rate limits and minor book inaccuracies at scale
PredictFun & Probable:
Surprisingly accurate as of current, monitoring how they handle increasing volumes
To get past these limits and scale the Arbitrage Finder we built some advanced new systems
1. Multiple Instances
Instead of scaling vertically we moved to scaling horizontally, a central controller handles the deployment & management of multiple proxied worker instances that each keep a local record of a subset of the market orderbooks and detect arbitrage opportunities as soon as dif updates are received
These worker instances feed the orderbook data back to the main controller which aggregates all information in one place and formats along them with relevant metadata to be fetched by our trading interfaces and applications
2. Handling “Junk Data”
One of the most challenging parts of scaling this application is dealing with the inaccuracies of the data provided by the APIs that we refer to as ‘Junk Data’
Some are easy to deal with:
- Book updates returned in the wrong order required an additional ‘lastTimestamp’ value at each book level which was referenced before any future updates are applied, if diff update timestamp was prior to lastTimestamp the dif update is ignored.
- Missing book dumps / levels reduced almost entirely by reducing the number of CLOB tokens per WS connection
- Dif ask/bid flips appearing at impossible levels are not applied
Some were a lot more challenging:
- Missing book updates were only detectable with revalidation & comparison, we don’t know what we don't know until we know we don't know it. More complex revalidation triggers and short recycling periods minimize the issue
With these updates we can scale the number of local orderbooks we are handling at one time:
Before: ~4,000 orderbooks
After: ~10,000 orderbooks
This, along with the improvements in orderbook accuracy, has increased arb density by 3X
Meaning we’re finding 3X the amount of opportunities as before
3. Rate limit bypass
To bypass the API limits that limit the quantity of markets we can subscribe to at once we had to ██████ ███ █ ██████ █████ █████████
TRADING SYSTEMS - [ NEW ]
The data is only as good as you can display it, ultimately the format in which the data is served will determine how efficiently it can be acted upon
We’ve created a system of interconnected tools that enable us to trade these opportunities, each with a different specific use case
1. AlertPilot Trading Terminal
A dashboard displaying all the hundreds of arbitrage opportunities the bot has found across 5 different prediction markets in real time
+ Arbitrage Calculator, showing you exactly how much to bid to take advantage of the arbitrage according to your bankroll, fees & slippage
+ Double Price Chart, which helps traders to estimate how long their arbitrage take to close
+ Strategy Guide, explaining how to execute arbitrage trades most effectively to maximize profits
+ Position Manager, connect your wallets to see your open arbitrage positions, EV, profits & exits
2. AlertPilot Telegram Bot
A system for getting alerts on all new arbitrage opportunities immediately, EV, Spreads & market links
+ Custom Settings, only see the arbitrages you’d want to take with user specific settings
+ Position Sell Alerts, connected to the AlertPilot Position Manager, get alerts to your phone when its time to sell your arbitrage positions
+ All 5 Markets, alerts on all 5 supported prediction markets: Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion, Probable & PredictFun
3. AlertPilot Discord Bot
Private chat rooms and arbitrage alerts on the AlertPilot Discord Group
+ Custom Alerts, the best arbitrage alerts are sent to the discord channel
+ Support, traders answering your questions on Arbitrage Trading
4. Arbitrage Trading Terminal [ SOON ]
A trading terminal built specifically for Arbitrage
+ Atomic Execution, enter positions on two platforms at the same time
+ Visualize the Arbitrage, trade with both charts in one place, see the gap close as you take your positions
+ Manage positions across multiple prediction markets in one place
SecureZero retweeted
I'm heavily farming Polymarket right now.
In this post, I cover why I think prediction markets are the best airdrops to farm rn and share several farming strategies.
Check it out here:
thedefinvestor.com/p/best-ai…
SecureZero retweeted
One of my favorite DeFi strategies lately has been prediction market arbitrage.
It's a great way to make solid profits while also farming Polymarket's upcoming airdrop.
Here's how it works:
• Go to @opinionlabsxyz or Polymarket
• Find an identical prediction market that is available on both platforms
• Check if there's a spread difference between the odds for that market on the two platforms
• If you can buy YES + NO shares for less than 99.9c, then do it to lock in a profit
When that prediction market expires, it's guaranteed that each 1 YES + 1 NO share will be worth $1 regardless of the outcome.
Here's an actual example:
On Polymarket, you can bet that Apple will release a new product line before 2027 by buying YES shares at 85c.
On Opinion, you can buy NO shares for the exact same market at 11.4c.
Buy the same number of YES shares on Polymarket and NO shares on Opinion, and you will lock in a profit as 85c+11.3c=96.4c and is less than $1.
If you invest $1000, you'll make $36.
Now ideally, you want to use this strategy only for markets that expire soon (within 2-3 months at most), so you don't have to wait too much until you can collect your profit.
You can read the market rules to see the end date.
You can find opportunities like this in 2 ways:
• Manually - search the identical markets on Polymarket and Opinion, and see if there's any arbitrage opportunity
• Automatically - A tool like AlertPilot dot io built by @securezer0 uses AI to automatically find prediction market arbitrage opportunities
In this example, AlertPilot requires paying a subscription, but if you want to do arbitrage with significant capital, it might be worth it.
Why do I believe that arbitraging prediction markets is a good idea?
Because with this strategy, you not only make a decent profit, but also farm Polymarket and Opinion.
If Polymarket launches a token, it could easily do the biggest airdrop of 2026. The valuation of Polymarket's latest funding round is $9 billion.
Let's say that its token has a $10b FDV at launch and there's only a 5% token airdrop allocation. Its airdrop will still be worth $500M.
A $500M airdrop would be massive given that Polymarket TVL is only $353M at this moment.
And I think that Opinion airdrop will also be pretty good.
I strongly believe that farming prediction market platforms will pay off tremendously.
SecureZero retweeted
How to Make $350 Per Day on Arbitrage Opinion → Polymarket
prediction markets are highly inefficient, which creates a simple edge:
the same event often trades at different odds on different platforms
and in the hands of a smart person, this becomes a great opportunity to profit from this difference - arbitrage
i have prepared a quick guide for you:
step 1: find mispriced markets
doing this manually is very difficult, we need a good arb bot. i chose @securezer0 - it has the best routes, starting from Opinion → Poly
> alertPilot.io/arb?ref=rain
next, look for identical events listed on two platforms (polymarket and @opinionlabsxyz in my case, this is where the best arb opportunities are) with different probabilities. this gap is your spread
step 2: hedge both sides
buy yes on the platform where it’s cheap and no where it’s underpriced. this locks in positive EV regardless of the outcome
step 3: size matters
overbuying increases slippage and can kill profitability. always consider orderbook depth and fees before placing trades
(use cal on alertpilot to understand how many shares you need to buy)
step 4: exit before resolution
you don’t need to wait for the event to finish. when odds converge and liquidity appears, sell both sides and take profit early
step 5: compound the edge
repeat the process. these spreads often persist for hours, making this a consistent, low-risk strategy even for beginners
at first, if you’re a beginner, you might not do very well. try looking for markets with small amounts (~$50–$100) to test how this mechanism works
thank you for your attention, i wish you big profits!
SecureZero retweeted
Thanks for sharing AlertPilot sir!
Hundreds of Arbitrages on Opinion Every day!
SecureZero retweeted
1.1% - 2.7% on Arbitrage in 6 days
Bet $10.000 → +$114
Bet $10.00 → +$26
Market:
polymarket.com/event/what-pr…
More arbitrage:
alertpilot.io/arb?ref=moneyf…
