Happy Birthday to the U.S. Navy who turns 251 today. On October 13, 1775, Congress authorized the formation of the Navy. 251 years later, the Navy operates roughly 290 ships, including 11 nuclear powered aircraft carriers, dozens of submarines and well over 100 surface combatants, along with thousands of aircraft. Those ships and aircraft are deployed around the world today.

Following reports that Iranian launch sites were just targeted earlier, reports now indicate that there have been more than one launch from Iran in the direction of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, combat aircraft have been reported over Iraq. These developments follow reports that Israel conducted a large combat exercise sortie over Iraq and Syria, exercising a potential future large-scale strike against Iran.

The U.S. military has quietly been scaling back its presence at bases across the Middle East in recent days, according to two U.S. officials and two people familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News. Troops at bases in Jordan, Qatar and Kuwait are among those moved, per one of the officials. Earlier today, the State Department announced the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia is reducing staff. Spokesperson Tommy Pigott cited Iranian supported Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including on civilian airports. Chiefs of mission at multiple other posts were told they would operate with reduced staff, the officials said. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesperson said, “We regularly move U.S. service members and assets to optimize mission readiness.” The sources said the moves respond to ongoing threats, including from Iran, and resemble drawdowns at the start of the war in February. One official and one person familiar said moving forces out of harm’s way is part of planning as President Donald J. Trump considers restarting major combat operations, potentially before or after the midterms. President Trump wrote on October 8th that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November 3rd midterms. NBC reports options presented to President Trump include strikes on tunnels or entrances at Iranian nuclear sites such as Pickaxe Mountain and on strategic islands including Kharg Island and Qeshm. Source: nbcnews.com/politics/nationa…

Early reports now indicate that a number of Iranian sites adjacent to the Strait of Hormuz, including in Sirik, Iran, have been preemptively struck as missile crews were preparing to launch into the strait at commercial vessels. These reports are preliminary. More to come. @hey_itsmyturn has do far fine great coverage of such events.

The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) sanctioned the Panama and Greece based law firm Karnakis & Karnakis, five of its owners and employees, two shipping agents and nine vessels on Wednesday, as part of Operation Economic Outcast, the campaign against Iran’s sanctions evasion. Treasury says the firm has registered the shipping companies that own shadow fleet vessels, which carried hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of Iranian exports. Treasury also designated Roxette Maritime Shipping and Trading and seven Panama flagged cargo ships it manages: ANEMOS, GLORIS, PRIDE, DESTINY, FLAMINGO 1, HARMONY and PRINCE. Treasury says only the first three carried Iranian exports in the past year. The two shipping agents are Singapore based Amigoz, which Treasury says provided bunkering to the sanctioned tanker ZIXUAN, and Dubai based Whales Shipping Line, which owns two support vessels also now sanctioned. Source: home.treasury.gov/news/press…

A U.S. Air Force HC-130J "Combat King II", MC-130J "Commando II" and CV-22 "Osprey" with the 150th Special Operations Wing, New Mexico Air National Guard, flew over the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta on October 9th. The wing is based at Kirtland Air Force Base, which borders Albuquerque, and works alongside the active duty 58th Special Operations Wing to train special operations and rescue aircrews on these aircraft. This year’s Fiesta ran October 3rd through 11th.

According to a report from the Wall Street Journal, Russian-backed attacks against Germany’s Leipzig-Halle Airport weeks ago was the beginning of a wider upscaled campaign of both hybrid and direct attacks against NATO and EU nations ordered directly by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Per the report, which cites European intelligence officials, the Lewis becoming increasingly dissatisfied with lacking efforts on the ground and U.S.-brokered negotiations with Ukraine that have yet to merit the outcome President Putin wants.

According to U.S. President Donald J. Trump, Stephen Hubbard, a 74 year old U.S. citizen living in Ukraine, who was taken from his home by Russian soldiers when Izium, Ukraine fell, was released by Russia and is on his way home. Per the president, nothing was given to Russia by the U.S. in order to secure his release, but minutes later the president claimed that the sanctions waivers given to Russia were implemented to ensure Hubbard’s release, directly contradicting his prior statements. Analyst Comment: It should be noted that, despite President Trump’s statements to the contrary, it’s unlikely that Hubbard’s release was the driver for the implementation of sanctions waivers, instead being the administration’s wider efforts to alleviate the oil and gas markets from the conflict in the Middle East

Middle East oil flows averaged more than 24 million barrels per day (BPD) in the week through October 18th, above the prewar average of 23.3 million BPD, according to Kpler ship tracking data reported by The Wall Street Journal. To accomplish this, tankers load inside the Persian Gulf and run through the Strait of Hormuz, often with their automatic identification system (AIS) off and under U.S. air cover along Oman’s coast, then transfer cargo to other ships near Oman before returning. That route moved about 14 million barrels a day, or 82% of prewar levels, in preliminary figures. Pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other alternative routes carry the rest of the regional total, or up to 10 million BPD. Kpler estimates about 40% of non Iranian Gulf crude oil bypassed the strait in September, up from 17% before the war. The Journal counts about 30 attacks on ships this month. Brent crude was around $108 a barrel yesterday. Source: wsj.com/world/middle-east/mo…

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Center has issued a late report of an attack on a tanker about 30 nautical miles southeast of Al Faw, Iraq, at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. The tanker was struck by an unknown projectile around 1830 UTC yesterday, according to the vessel’s master. The crew is reported safe, and no damage or environmental impact has been reported. A tanker was struck in nearly the same area on September 9th. Earlier this week, UKMTO acknowledged it is struggling to report the true number of attacks because most targeted vessels are refusing to report to it, likely in accordance with U.S. guidance. Attacks the U.S. attributes to Iran have increased in pace and range in recent weeks, reaching tankers north of Qatar and off Saudi Arabia’s Al Jubayl.

Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of the military version of Starlink that Ukraine relies on, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Musk wrote on X after it became public that “any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.” Trump told reporters Monday he didn’t know who was responsible, “but I would like to find out.” The Journal reports Musk and Trump spoke by phone soon after the slowdown became public, according to two people, and one said they also discussed it before. Some U.S. officials told the Journal Musk acted unilaterally and Trump did not order retribution against Ukraine. That conflicts with earlier reports. Reuters reported the order came from inside the White House, and The Telegraph reported Musk proposed it to Trump. A senior U.S. official told Reuters the president made no such request. Source: wsj.com/world/ukraine-starli…

United Kingdom Counter Terrorism Policing has arrested two men again on suspicion of assisting Iran’s foreign intelligence service in the investigation into the Sept. 27 incident at RAF Fairford, according to multiple outlets. One is a 24 year old British national first arrested outside the base. The other is a 25 year old dual British and Iranian national first arrested in London. Seven men have been arrested in total, and five remain on bail. Laurence Taylor of National Counter Terrorism Policing said: “This is very much a live investigation, and our evidence gathering continues, but at this time our position remains the same; we consider it highly likely that there is Iranian state involvement.” Iran has denied any involvement. Days after the first arrests, the U.S. moved all its long range bombers out of RAF Fairford back to their home base in the United States. As of today, none have returned. Source: cnn.com/2026/10/20/uk/two-me…

This also comes against the backdrop of increasing rhetoric from within Iraq and Iran to take actions against the Iraqi Kurds, as the U.S., the Iraqi Kurds’ erstwhile primary backer has withdrawn from the nation.

Despite U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s comments attempting to divorce Russian ventures and cooperation with Iran from the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Iranian officials continue to seek to draw a line between the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and events in the Middle East, with IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency reporting (likely falsely) that Ukraine has deployed a number of small-UAS operators to Iraqi Kurdistan near the border with Iran.

White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Norway today before traveling to Russia to further negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a change from past visits, where he has often prioritized meeting with President Putin first. This comes amidst increased European-U.S. tensions and an ongoing diplomatic row between Ukraine and the U.S., with both being centered around restricted military and operational aid to Ukraine and U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s increasing characterization of Russia as the more responsible actor in the war, and the U.S.’s increased pressure on Ukraine to take concessions that they deem to be out of the question (particularly territorial concessions).

The UK will provide FGR4 Typhoons, A400s, and additional advisors to Saudi Arabia to support defensive efforts against the Houthis, according to a notice to the UK’s parliament by UK Defense Secretary Wes Streeting. The UK is already providing air defense and air-refueling support to the Saudis and the additional resources and personnel provided by the UK will hopefully potentiate the efforts of existing joint integrated air defense frameworks already in place.