Serbian NBA Capper

Read the article - you can find several different angles and approaches to this game with potentially several great picks!

Give me 30+ L/RT here, and I'll drop TWO MORE plays! Miles Briges UNDER 16,5 [DraftKings] 1.83 Miles Bridges has had a stretch of games featuring some of the MOST FAVORABLE MATCHUPS imaginable for his offensive skill set, putting up 16 points against GSW, 17 against OKC, 24 against DEN, and 21 against GSW. Golden State simply can't defend anything, anywhere this season — they're one of the weaker defensive teams in the entire league. Denver has been ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE against spot-up (SU) shooters and slashers in general, largely because of their aggressive defensive approach against dominant PnR ball handlers. As for OKC's defense, there's no need to waste words on it, considering we've discussed it a million times already. Bridges managed to capitalize on all of these favorable matchups, which is exactly why I believe this is an IDEAL SELL-HIGH LINE for him! Portland has been FANTASTIC in two areas where Bridges is MOST DANGEROUS — defending spot-up possessions and protecting the rim! The Blazers rank as the #2 BEST defense against SU shots and the #1 BEST defense at protecting the restricted area (RA), where Bridges attempts 40% of his shots. On top of that, 60% of his total FGA come from approximately 10 feet or closer to the basket, an area where Portland ranks as the #6 BEST defensive team in the league. And that's hardly surprising. Clingan and TimeLord are FANTASTIC rim protectors, both operating in a very deep drop coverage that keeps the paint extremely well protected. On the perimeter, Portland's switching defense absolutely KILLS spot-up and catch-and-shoot opportunities. Against this type of defensive scheme, ball handlers tend to benefit the most, which is why I expect Green and Booker to dominate the ball tonight and attack relentlessly. Finally, the first meeting between these teams this season ended in a MASSIVE BLOWOUT, but I seriously doubt Bridges would've cleared this line even with his full minutes, considering he had scored just 8 POINTS by the end of the third quarter.

One of those bets where I'll either look like the BIGGEST IDIOT on the planet or an ABSOLUTE GENIUS — we'll see how it plays out. Personally, I believe there's VALUE here! John Collins OVER 11.5 [FanDuel] 1.80 Collins to score 15+ points [FanDuel] 3.00 Collins to score 20+ points [FanDuel] 8.48 Collins to score 25+ points [FanDuel] 21.00 John Collins is absolutely ESSENTIAL for the Pistons tonight. Unlike several previous games where Detroit could compensate for his size with Holland's athleticism at PF, that simply WON'T BE THE CASE tonight. The Pistons desperately need size against the 76ers, especially with Philadelphia finally having a fully healthy roster. I sincerely hope Collins manages to stay out of foul trouble. If he does, I'm absolutely convinced he'll see 31–35 minutes in a competitive game. Looking at his game log, Collins has failed to reach 30 minutes in each of his L4 games, mostly due to a combination of foul trouble, massive blowouts, or both. The last time he played 30+ minutes was actually against these same 76ers, when he dropped 16 points in 34 minutes. I believe Collins will be utilized much more frequently as a roller, especially when Reed is off the floor. His athleticism and ability to stretch the floor could be extremely valuable against Embiid, who is genuinely elite at protecting the rim but becomes a player you absolutely want to TARGET outside the RA, particularly when you have a mobile big who can attack both as a roller and a popper. Collins checks BOTH boxes. Statistically speaking, the 76ers allow the #8 MOST points inside the RA, where Collins attempts 50% of his total shots. On top of that, I'm absolutely convinced we'll see Philadelphia playing SAGGING defense against him, deliberately allowing him opportunities from beyond the arc, especially when Embiid is guarding him. Additionally, LeBron doesn't seem particularly interested in playing defense, spending most of his time in a roaming role, which I believe Collins could exploit HEAVILY tonight. Detroit's other SU shooters could have serious difficulties against Philadelphia's defense, which ranks #1 BEST in the entire league in that department. Therefore, I expect the Pistons' offense to revolve heavily around Cunningham/Reed/Collins, with Jenkins potentially providing a solid contribution off the bench. Collins has cleared this line only TWICE this season, both coming early in the year when Detroit was COMPLETELY healthy. Once again, Duren and Joe are OUT, so I'm hoping that in a competitive game WITHOUT foul trouble, Collins will finally get his FULL minutes. If we look at athletic, dominant big men against Philadelphia, we get the following numbers (with the ability to stretch the floor being an additional bonus): Jalen Smith 13, Towns 22, Toppin 13, Ware 19 (we played him that night), Mobley 18, Towns 19. ALL OVERS. And these numbers include ONLY games in which Embiid was available.

One of those bets where I'll either look like the BIGGEST IDIOT on the planet or an ABSOLUTE GENIUS — we'll see how it plays out. Personally, I believe there's VALUE here! John Collins OVER 11.5 [FanDuel] 1.80 Collins to score 15+ points [FanDuel] 3.00 Collins to score 20+ points [FanDuel] 8.48 Collins to score 25+ points [FanDuel] 21.00 John Collins is absolutely ESSENTIAL for the Pistons tonight. Unlike several previous games where Detroit could compensate for his size with Holland's athleticism at PF, that simply WON'T BE THE CASE tonight. The Pistons desperately need size against the 76ers, especially with Philadelphia finally having a fully healthy roster. I sincerely hope Collins manages to stay out of foul trouble. If he does, I'm absolutely convinced he'll see 31–35 minutes in a competitive game. Looking at his game log, Collins has failed to reach 30 minutes in each of his L4 games, mostly due to a combination of foul trouble, massive blowouts, or both. The last time he played 30+ minutes was actually against these same 76ers, when he dropped 16 points in 34 minutes. I believe Collins will be utilized much more frequently as a roller, especially when Reed is off the floor. His athleticism and ability to stretch the floor could be extremely valuable against Embiid, who is genuinely elite at protecting the rim but becomes a player you absolutely want to TARGET outside the RA, particularly when you have a mobile big who can attack both as a roller and a popper. Collins checks BOTH boxes. Statistically speaking, the 76ers allow the #8 MOST points inside the RA, where Collins attempts 50% of his total shots. On top of that, I'm absolutely convinced we'll see Philadelphia playing SAGGING defense against him, deliberately allowing him opportunities from beyond the arc, especially when Embiid is guarding him. Additionally, LeBron doesn't seem particularly interested in playing defense, spending most of his time in a roaming role, which I believe Collins could exploit HEAVILY tonight. Detroit's other SU shooters could have serious difficulties against Philadelphia's defense, which ranks #1 BEST in the entire league in that department. Therefore, I expect the Pistons' offense to revolve heavily around Cunningham/Reed/Collins, with Jenkins potentially providing a solid contribution off the bench. Collins has cleared this line only TWICE this season, both coming early in the year when Detroit was COMPLETELY healthy. Once again, Duren and Joe are OUT, so I'm hoping that in a competitive game WITHOUT foul trouble, Collins will finally get his FULL minutes. If we look at athletic, dominant big men against Philadelphia, we get the following numbers (with the ability to stretch the floor being an additional bonus): Jalen Smith 13, Towns 22, Toppin 13, Ware 19 (we played him that night), Mobley 18, Towns 19. ALL OVERS. And these numbers include ONLY games in which Embiid was available.

Feeling confident about today's slate - might drop a few more plays later! Jrue Holiday P+R+A OVER 20.5 [Caesars] 1.81 I believe this is arguably the MOST IDEAL MATCHUP POSSIBLE for Jrue to fill up every single statistical category, considering how desperately Portland will need him tonight and how invaluable his overall impact on the floor could be. In my opinion, Henderson could be the biggest loser tonight in terms of playing time. I'm convinced that if this game stays competitive, Jrue could take a significant chunk of Henderson's minutes, simply because Scoot is a below-average defender. And knowing Denver's defensive tendencies, I'm expecting A LOT of open spot-up and catch-and-shoot opportunities. I fully expect the Nuggets to play clogging defense against Avdija whenever he attacks the basket, while Dame could face plenty of hedges and blitzes at the top. In BOTH scenarios, Holiday should be one of the biggest beneficiaries, either by getting open looks or operating as a secondary creator. In games like this, as I mentioned, Holiday's contribution is absolutely INVALUABLE, and I'm extremely confident he'll play 28+ minutes, especially with Morant OUT. Statistically speaking, Denver allows the 3rd-MOST points off C&S opportunities, 8th-MOST points off spot-up situations, and 3rd-MOST points from around 10 feet of the basket. Looking at Jrue's shot distribution, approximately 55% of his total FGA come from those areas. This season, Holiday has cleared this line in 3 of his last 4 games when playing 22+ minutes. More importantly, since I'm projecting him to play at least 26 minutes tonight, if we filter his games by that threshold, he's cleared this line in 2/2 games, averaging 25 PRA. Denver is also a below-average defense when it comes to allowing assists, and Jrue should have opportunities to operate as both a primary and secondary playmaker. On the glass, Holiday has always been actively involved in defensive rebounding, giving him yet another way to contribute to this bet. Taking EVERYTHING into consideration, I genuinely believe this line is 1–2 points LOWER than what I expected to see.

This will be my 1st collab of the season! I'm honored to do it with @772_Bets! Ron Holland UNDER 6.5 [FanDuel] 1.88 Holland is a player who can rarely get anything going against a set half-court defense, as he generates almost all of his points in transition or off occasional backdoor cuts. I strongly believe that tonight he won't come anywhere close to the offensive usage he's been seeing this season, averaging around 6 FGA per game. The Hornets prioritize transition prevention and playing at an extremely slow pace, ranking among the league's best in both categories. They allow the 6th-FEWEST transition points and play at by far the SLOWEST pace in the entire NBA. Against a set half-court defense, Holland's only realistic scoring opportunities would come from defensive breakdowns or offensive rebounds. I'm extremely confident that Holland will finish tonight's game with fewer than 4 FGA. On top of that, Holland generates the majority of his points inside the paint and off spot-up opportunities. Statistically, the Hornets allow the 10th-FEWEST points from within ~10 feet of the basket and rank as the 3rd-BEST defense against spot-up shooting. The reason behind those numbers is their defensive philosophy. They're perfectly willing to let HIGH-USG% players beat them by taking heavily contested shots in single coverage, with Diabate/Kalkbrenner playing drop coverage. On the other hand, they do everything possible to limit opposing role players, especially those with offensive profiles similar to Holland's. I believe his line is one point higher than it should be, mainly because of his performance against the Nets, who were an ideal matchup for his offensive skill set. Holland's playing time is absolutely NOT dependent on either Joe or Duren, both of whom are OUT. In the previous game, he was on track to finish with fewer than 15 minutes, but the way the third quarter ended allowed him to pick up additional minutes in the fourth, where he benefited from a decent amount of garbage time. I believe that tonight, assuming we get a competitive game, Holland will play fewer than 14 minutes and attempt only 3–4 FGA, just like in their first meeting this season, when he played only 12 minutes and attempted just 2 shots. Both Duren and Joe were OUT in that game as well. Players with similar offensive profiles against CHA this season: Coulibaly 1, Pope 3, Wade 4, Coulibaly 3, Dort 9 (5 FGA), Ellis 7 (34 MIN).