Shettson

we are getting to that point in the cycle, where, i think over the next 18-24 months there is going to be A LOT of money to be made i won't tricky myself into thinking i know where the exact bottom is by the month on crypto, but i've done this enough to know we're not far away what this means is it's extremely important to lock in rn that doesn't mean take crazy risk and expect massive moves on a daily basis - actually quite the opposite, you want to be building up a stack of capital so that when obvious plays present themselves you can go hard but what is important is to log in every day, keep note of trends, developments...what's hot/what's not your best tool is your intuition, and intuition improves with more data..if you disappear for 2 years and come back your intuition will be rusty it just feels like to me we've done most of the hard work now, just have to keep going i'm excited to see things turn soon.

feeling modestly bullish crypto here (although it frightens me to say it) $MSTR/$STRC - i think we are due a short squeeze which will result in a tailwind for crypto. all saylor has to do is not sell $MSTR for 1-2 weeks (no immediate cash requirement to do so) and suddenly that sell pressure dissipates and shorts will cover. don't get me wrong - i have a serious problem with the mis-marketing of the structure and goading retail investors into a ponzi scheme, but as there is no specific near-term credit event (10 months of dividend coverage from USD reserve and next convertible bond put is in sep 27), all it takes is a small rally in BTC for shorts to need to cover. i would expect some relief in the strategy structure alongside crypto prices, both of which feed each other (opposite of the death spiral) primarily driven by short covering. not saying that we have a V all the way back to $83k on BTC but i think this is a good effort at trying to form a low. not only that but there is clearly quite a vibe shift with @blknoiz06 charging SOL (anyone who was around in 2023 will remember those vibes) with a memecoin $ANSEM on SOL hitting $100m mkt cap very fast which we haven't seen for a while. there's been a massive rotation out of crypto into stocks which was a legendary trade, and i think we are probably just one decent crypto headline away from capital coming back in. don't get me wrong, this doesn't mean you have to fomo to load the boat rn and i think DCA'ing on the good stuff is still the best strategy - as we've seen in past bear markets they can take months and months. what i would say though is if you're reading this, it means you're still here, and that is 50% of the battle that will give you a massive advantage over everyone else who has left (and will inevitably return to buy at ATHs). if you are a project founder it's been an extremely tough run, but if you've stuck it through i think the market and your community will reward your efforts for being consistent for many months of brutal price action and vibes - i hope that will be the case for us and $REKT good luck everyone

bear markets are tough but are mostly a test of patience the biggest winners of bull markets have planted their seeds in the bear...you only see part of the story when someone posts a big pnl result or shows their 1-day gains but the reality is the ABILITY to come across and have the confidence to size into this trades is formed and nurtured over multiple months of a bear market...staying on top of narratives and building your muscle memory of how markets respond again, it's a game of patience, and a game of pain management how many times can you walk into your office and get punched in the dick day after day after day after day? many crumble after the first few days...some last for a few weeks or months but eventually give up however, if you've ever experienced a whole cycle of grinding out a full bear to finally see the delicious fruits of your labour when the market turns, you'll know it's simply the best feeling in the world, and often changes your life from a wealth perspective people say "the rich get richer" and that's true, because the rich just rinse and repeat how they got rich in the first place, which is buying low and selling high things aren't dead, crypto is not dead, it never will be, it will come back, but to have the highest probability of making it big on the next run up, you have to put in the work (primarily mental strength and conviction) now...otherwise you reduce your chances to games of hot potato as we have seen many times before i have lived through market cycles many times, crypto cycles twice...i am fortunate and grateful to have changed my life through accumulating at lows and being patient for months and months, even at those times when it's felt horrific (you have to feel uncomfortable actually imo to know you're doing it right...you gotta feel something) this time will be no different, but it's about tempering expectations and being mentally prepared to grind it out. the great saying is "all you gotta do is survive" - and it's absolutely true, because those who make it through will be rewarded ever so pleasantly.

“i would buy the dip but i don’t have any money left” - if this is you (and it is a lot of people) then here’s what i would personally do i would still buy the dip, even if it’s with $1, and i would still average down, even if its just 10c at a time u can’t always be in the perfect position 100% of the time, but it is important still to train your brain and muscle memory to know how to act in these situations, so it feels familiar to you the next time you do have capital. i’ve done this in the past when i’ve been less liquid, the amount is not important, the action and training is what will give you bigger ballz over time. cheers.

as you probably know, i was definitely in the "4 year cycle is broken" camp. i think with BTC now at 69k, 45% off the highs (and a huge underperformance vs stocks) it's quite clear i was wrong because i think that's a big enough drop for me to classify it as a cycle. that being said, i would much rather be a buyer than a seller here, and in the context of where i think crypto can go the upside far exceeds the downside. i'm just simply never going to be one of those people who sht themselves at the lows, because time and time again, 99% of the money i've made in my life has come from accumulating risk in big dips, and often the best trades have been the ones where i feel like i'm the only person buying and it feels absolutely horrific. i think it's important to recognise and understand your trading and investing style, and a large portion of CT seems to have an obsession with catching breakouts. imo, this is a relatively low probability way of making good money, and i've seen very few people do it successfully consistently. even "good traders" who make money every year...the guys that killed in the 2021 or 2024 bull runs will have made many multiples more than these guys, even if they didn't have a good 2025 or 2026. a lot of people seem to be concerned that "crypto is dead". if you've been around long enough you will have seen this story multiple times before, and it's never the case. i think there is a great misunderstanding that "crypto MUST have a use case in order to go higher" - that's not really true...my belief is price often moves first and narratives come after to match the price. the tech always seems more revolutionary at higher prices, just like how art also looks better at higher prices. one thing for sure, i won't be fading the 4y cycle thesis again, it's clear to me that BTC is closely held by a large group of whales and if that's the narrative/playbook they wanna keep running, then that's what they gonna do and you can't fight it. what it does mean is that we will have another great big uprising and contrary to what you may think, the seeds to your wealth are actually sewn in the bear market. think about it this way, let's say you left in 2022 after the FTX collapse...you probably didn't return to crypto until mid 2024 to start trading again, and i bet you very few people made good money from that period until now. the people who actually made the most money, were the ones who stuck around during 2023, caught trades like $PEPE, $BONK, $MOG, $WIF, $SOL...if you were around during that period it would have been very hard for you to have not caught at least one of these...and that set you up to trade from a position of strength for the remainder of the cycle. the problem is, when you leave and when you sell, you will certainly miss the best opportunities...you're always sitting there thinking "i wish i was early"...well being early doesn't come from fkn off and thinking it's all over...sure...there's a lot of luck involved, but you have to put yourself in a position of receiving that luck which means locking in when everyone has given up, and taking risks when others are gun shy. the best and easiest strategy is to simply DCA and accumulate spot. too many people are obsessed at catching the bottom, and are mentally weak at being able to withstand negative unrealised pnl. however, the highest probability way to make a lot of money over a longer period of time is to accumulate lower and lower and build up a nice position, so you are ready for when thinks start moving higher again, it requires a lot of patience, and it requires a lot of conviction, because everyone around you will tell you "it's too early, lower first, i'm shorting here" etc etc...but none of these points are generally relevant to your goal. this strategy does not work if you are taking leverage, and it does not work if you are investing money you need in the short term, because it requires you to be patient and hold for long periods of time. however, i think the vast majority of people on CT would make way more money (potentially life changing for many of you) if they employed a strategy like this, rather than chasing aggressive quick wins (ie gambling). i am very grateful for crypto because i have made enough money to change my life substantially, but the significant majority of my gains have come from accumulating risk during 2022-23 and monetising during 2024. this next cycle will be different for me, because as you may be aware, i don't really trade much anymore and my full focus is on $REKT...but i think the same concepts apply. over the next few weeks and months you will see many project founders leave (already started) and communities slowly die. many coins will literally never come back and will be totally gone, and then the same project founders who left will return when the good times are back and start on their next grift. as you should have gathered, that certainly will not be me and it certainly will not be $REKT. 2026 will mark the 5th year of our community, which really truly formed and strengthened during the 2022 bear market. it is literally our bread and butter, engrained into our personalities and that is exactly why the entire project is called Rekt! but more importantly, i think the same concepts i mentioned about trading wholly apply to being a project founder. i believe this creates a far greater opportunity for us than if we were still in a raging bull where you have to really compete hard for attention. these are the moments when everyone gives up, and you make a name for yourself as one of the few things "still going"...and actually, if you deliver positive news and create meaningful developments, people are infinitely more impressed. creating something successful and truly inter-cycle requires trust. it requires people to believe "this thing WILL go up again when the market resumes", and this trust only establishes itself once a coin has proven its ability to bounce back and regain momentum. part of that comes from historical patterns, for coins where there are no "founders" (like BTC obviously), but for coins with founders, people want comfort that they are not going to leave and be working as hard as they can to not just keep things going, but actually excel the position. in then last 14 years of trading markets, these are the times i've really set myself up to make the most money, and meaningfully furthering my life goals through each cycle. that's not because i am a good trader, but it's because i know i have an edge in these environments when everyone else has given up hope and i see big opportunities, with little competition in hunting for those opportunities. it is with this mindset i intend on furthering $REKT + @rektdrinks this year and i inherently believe we have a massive opportunity to stand out as something interesting in what is a terrible market. we made massive strides last year, we've already delivered a lot in january, and i believe we have significant and sufficient momentum to make a pretty big mark this year. if the market stays this way, i believe we have a very unique opportunity to stand out, outperform and end the year making people think "fk, this was the trade all along". markets will be markets, but i think the worst is over...the question i ask myself is not "can we go another 30-50% lower", it's the fact that i know we can go another 200-1000% higher, it's just gonna take hard work and patience. the way i see it, is i have made money in a very specific, high probability way for many years, and if it ain't broke don't fix it. now it's time to do it with $REKT.