STrades retweeted
IF memory chips will be plentiful in the future, that means that AI chips will also be plentiful in the future.
So how do people justify $AMD having 1,300% higher valuation than $MU on a per $1 of profit?
STrades retweeted
~63% institutional ownership + heavy short interest, while $UPST fundamentals are accelerating: Q2 originations +50% YoY, 21% EBITDA margin, and GAAP profitability.
Institutions are accumulating while the business gets stronger. That setup can get interesting fast.
STrades retweeted
The @Rebellionaire Upstart Q2 2026 Earnings Review is here 📊
$UPST just posted an all-time high Contribution Profit while carrying two money-losing products still scaling toward breakeven. Read that again.
Inside the review: why I believe a FY26 topline revenue beat is coming, enormous pricing power within core, the foundation model for credit.
@paulxgu not bad for 100 days 😉
STrades retweeted
$UPST grew revenue 42% last quarter, the fastest Q2 in fintech so far. 95 cents of every revenue dollar was fees.
Quick look at the mix:
1️⃣ Fee revenue grew 45%, faster than total revenue. The interest and fair value line shrank to $17M as funding moved to third parties. This growth is fees on $4.2B of originations, up 50%.
2️⃣ Back to GAAP profitability. Net income of $16.5M, nearly triple last year. Record $193M contribution profit.
3️⃣ The cautions, from their own filings: guidance held flat with their macro index at the top of its range, and the 10-Q flags loan vintages from mid 2023 through early 2024, plus late 2024, tracking below target returns.
4️⃣ The next chapter: conditional OCC approval for a national bank charter came two weeks ago. FDIC and Fed still pending, launch targeted early 2027. Deposits are cheaper than marketplace capital, and I have tracked exactly what that difference is worth at another lender I cover.
STrades retweeted
$UPST Adjusted EBITDA came in extremely strong at approximately $76.9M
For me, this is almost more important than pure revenue growth. It shows the business model is scaling again.
Higher loan volume isn’t just driving more revenue, it’s translating into significantly stronger operating profitability.
Upstart is showing growth, funding confidence and improving profitability, while the potential banking license could become another major catalyst.
The slight EPS miss is a blemish, but the bigger story has clearly improved.
I think $50 is realistic from here, with $80 potentially on the table if the banking license comes through.
We share live trades and market insights in our free Discord community. Join us here to get started: discord.com/invite/YfSXGHTdc
STrades retweeted
One of my biggest issues on here.
When stocks are rising, no one ever talks about taking profits and protecting capital and hands out ridiculous prices targets. Anyone who does is labeled a “idiot shill spreading FUD who doesn’t understand the company.”
When stocks are dropping, no one ever talks about buying at key levels because the bottom isn’t in and hands out price targets 20-50% lower. Anyone who does buy at key levels is an “idiot bag holder who couldn’t clearly see the decline”.
It’s the upside down.
STrades retweeted
Added more $MU today.
The thesis is pretty simple...buy low, sell high!
When I can buy a stock with a forward PE of ~5, that means even if the forward profits deteriorates by 50%, and they simply get a PE of 10, they could still maintain their current stock price. How many companies could have 50% decline in expected future profits and would maintain their price if they got a PE of 10!? 🤯
But even more interesting, is that there is no evidence that their estimated profits will deteriorate. All the evidence, such as $GOOGL increasing CapEx, $100 Billion worth of long-term contracts with huge deposits, and the rapid increase of AI adoption across the world, point to continued demand for AI and memory.
So the question is: what happens if Micron's profits continue to grow for the next couple of years?
STrades retweeted
The SK hynix reaction is a perfect example of why understanding the reason a company missed matters.
This was not a demand problem.
The bottleneck was supply.
If you cannot produce enough HBM to satisfy customers, revenue can come in below expectations even while demand remains stronger than ever.
That is fundamentally different from customers pulling back on AI spending.
The market sold first and asked questions later. Now SK is green after hours and QQQ recovered after an initial 1% drop since the initial algo panic sell.
Investors who understand the difference between a supply constrained miss and a demand driven miss have an edge.
STrades retweeted
With the way AI/semis stocks are selling off you would think something fundamentally changed
Yet all of them have crushed earnings so far and Google even raised Capex
Markets waaay overblown on AI fear right now imo
STrades retweeted
This is Michael Burry's last 5 year's performance vs. my performance since April of 2022 when my portfolio became public. And unlike Burry, my full portfolio, with every transaction, has been viewable by anyone, in near-real-time (within a minute or two of a trade), THE ENTIRE time.
My performance: +758%
vs.
Michael Burry: +15%
And then I have to answer as to what I think about Michael Burry shorting one of my stocks. Who the F is that dude!? Bring me someone who has an actual track record. I *don't* need to respond to someone who doesn't understand investing, based on their track record.
