Ex-founder. Learning in public about AI, markets, and human behavior: the tech, money, psychology and memes shaping what comes next.
Joined September 2009
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13+ years in the market.
One thing I have observed consistently is that people know exactly what they were doing once the outcome is revealed.
Then there’s the second aspect: over reliance.
Because of the incentives and uncertainty inherent in markets, it is very easy to develop excessive trust in external advice. And if the source is sufficiently sophisticated, they can exploit that setup to shape the narrative and influence how outcomes are interpreted.
Wins reinforce expertise. Losses can be reframed as bad timing, unforeseeable events, or something the follower supposedly misunderstood.
Over time, this can create the perception of a consistently accurate source even when the underlying track record is far more ambiguous.
Previously, this was hilariously easy. Nowadays it’s a bit trickier, but...LLMs bring in a funny dynamic...urgh.
Analyzing all of this requires way too much thinking.
I just want to eat Korean fried chicken and post memes.
Haha, tbh, I’m with 10 years in the market, and I’m not sure I’d call 2020 & 2022 “stock market collapses.”
2022 was definitely a tougher environment, mainly because the recovery was so slow, but neither really felt like the huge crash or recession all the bears had been waiting for.
That said, just because someone has experience doesn’t mean they’re always right.
Here’s a little souvenir:
I dont get why we have chinamaxxers, us maxxers etc. Like don't you want everyone to do well so that humanity progresses? What do you get by putting down the other side?
Example #1,000,000 of gambling companies falling back on the technical definition of probability when called out, while spending the rest of their time marketing probabilities as certainties
so gamblers bet heavily on brazil elections after seeing a clear trend and thinking ez money but then got hit by an out of distribution data point. and now they are crying?
you love to see it!
Seeing all these AI startups in the US raising millions is honestly bittersweet. My own startup received €60K in funding, while on a recent trip to the US, I learned that a startup at a very similar stage had raised $1.5 MILLION?!
Ah hell nah, humans have been generating slop for decades, and all it took was an “unconscious,” “artificial,” poorly generalizing, world-model-less, em-dash-generating stochastic parrot to expose generations of mediocrity?
I am noting down everyone's name during this drawdown. When the time comes I will tag evey single of these fkers!! You'll see generational commentary!! I don't forget or forgive!
"@aleabitoreddit dumped their whole $SIVE holding, they've been so quiet, they're just a liar" MAYBE Serenity is sick of you ppl with a 5 sec memory needing them to constantly strengthen your conviction for you?! They gave you all the info and ALWAYS said to wait until 2027.
All these companies complaining about higher memory prices - just get your finance dept to invest in the same memory shares you are buying from. Math is simple
use cash to buy the shares (always buy shares using cash) and use credit to buy the actual product! GGEZ
Markets are down because of CPI? We moved from Pluggables to CPO to NPO to CPI in a year?
HOLY SHIT. We're witnessing a generational acceleration in technological development.
Keep buying! Your favourite photonics stock will soon be making Co-Packaged Internet too! nw.
Maybe I should've spent more time posting sarcastic ragebait to farm engagement and collect X revenue. Seems to have worked wonders for some accounts.
Let me see if this works again
Once China starts mass producing DCs in its factories $NBIS is going to 0.
AI is a bubble. Demand is fake. Sell everything.
China will flood the market with supply and eliminate the AI supply demand imbalance.
$META plans to sell excess compute. AI overcapacity is coming.
CPO is delayed and you're getting played.
turns out RSI is just:
scale → AI discovers cheaper matmul → scale harder → repeat
OpenAI's Math post is up!
github.com/openai/math
a large number of people got rich because they were dumb af and went full ape into a company when no one believed in it. Only in hindsight they are called smart, visionary or long-term investors
Today I upgraded from $20 to the $100 ChadGPT plan. I think I think I may have underestimated the future. Those who were spreading the dogshit narrative that "easy AI trade is over"
clearly use the plus plan with 5 hour limit.
I partly agree, but I don’t think pattern recognition is the main differentiator.
The so called experts are usually good at recognizing patterns too.
The real difference, imo is risk management.
Experts ask: how do I avoid a bad outcome?
r/wsb asks: what happens if I’m massively right?
There are tons of smart engineers that understand AI on X.
I’m not one of them.
There are a ton of of smart pharma chemists on X
I’m not one of them.
Why do I say this?
I’ve seen the experts get destroyed in stocks.
Understanding the technology or chemistry gives people a false sense of confidence.
They don’t understand the numbers. Some do …but most don’t.
I’m not a finance nerd either.
Yeah, I’ve got 2 master in business and technology…enough to be dangerous…but nothing crazy.
My real skill is pattern recognition and balls of steel on top of my education. Plus 12-13 years of growing $50k to $17M.
The combination of my background plus my personality equals 99 percentile returns.
Follow for free. Or not 😏
