until price action tells you otherwise!
Canada
Joined January 2012
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stonkgame retweeted
$SPY n frens, my thoughts (human slop). Yes the slop machine also helped type it out. Idc. Productivity gainz.
Q4 I am still watching for continued expansion, stubborn inflation, high global yields and increasingly selective equities. Not seeing much improvement in energy or credit yet.
October:
Oct 12-16: CPI, PPI and Friday OPEX. Watching inflation, yields and how equities react into and out of expiration.
Oct 21: VIXperation fuckery.
Oct 27-29: FOMC, GDP and PCE. Watching Fed guidance, growth and whether long yields actually respond.
Oct 30: Month-end flows and rebalancing. Interesting window for rates and equity positioning.
November:
Nov 3: Midterms and JOLTS. Watching fiscal expectations, global yields and labor demand.
Nov 6-13: NFP, CPI and PPI. Watching whether growth can keep absorbing high energy and financing costs.
Nov 20: OPEX. Watching positioning, volatility and breadth.
Nov 25-30: GDP, PCE and month-end flows. Looking for any further deterioration in credit or earnings expectations.
December:
Dec 4: NFP. Watching payrolls relative to demographic breakeven, hours and wages.
Dec 8-9: FOMC and SEP. Probably the biggest remaining window for repricing the 2027 rate path.
Dec 10: CPI, the day after the Fed.
Dec 18: Quarterly OPEX.
Dec 23-31: GDP, PCE and year-end positioning.
Still keeping an eye on oil/diesel, global rates and curves, sovereign spreads, CCC credit stress and equity breadth.
I think a broader rally is still possible, but either growth needs to keep absorbing these financing costs or we need actual improvement in inflation and credit. A Fed hold alone doesn’t mean the global tightening impulse is over.
stonkgame retweeted
I mean today itself is wishy washy, we made a lower low from yesterday at the open, but then made a higher high from test after the dip buy, mostly NVDA shenanigans.
I think everyone who BTD on NVDA today knows it’s a short term rental and will puke it at first signs of trouble. The Jensen saga continues and NVDA tries to replace arguably the most key man critical founder and CEO of all time, and on top of that potentially deals with breaking export or whatever laws with Dems coming back into power wanting to throw the book at Lutnick et al types.
But besides all that speculation, they are clamping SPY above Sep open 762. Everything above 760 is a 4x prior weekly wick sell zone, and I can’t think of a catalyst until Dec FOMC that can push us much higher through all that, besides just positioning chop up or down. I can’t see us getting persistent trend up w all that supply above (potential options death).
The D+W timeframes are buyers, but shorter timeframe always weaker. M+Q timeframes are still sellers and proving it again above 760. Yearly buyers did their job at the 200ema which is still rising, but I think they get gut checked again. I admit I sound like a gae bera, but I think this is mostly the case for November, and if rates go too high too fast, Dec FOMC could still give us our Santa rally into year end, but that is certainly in question now.
$GLD futures #GC_F had a big volume dip-buy last week that hath already been quashed (trapped longs pukey today).
Losing the 2025 anchored VWAP (not good as sellers continue to find value below). I obviously think a further puke incoming and I think there is still some value in $GLD Nov27 OTM puts. The quant option pricing models don't factor in [our beloved charts] or the fact everyone n their mom is staring at 3500 as a target.
PPI tmrw, if it comes in hot this will continue to puke. If cool I guess could see a bounce and hold of 3800 until we get more clarity in Dec.
Nobody is ready for a $DXY wrecking ball
I agree. My point is there could be case for a much stronger dollar depending on how this all plays out. Not a strong view either, just something I see as increasing risk for metals and equities.
DXY +105-110s could be in sight again if Trump is lame duck on his policies. On top of that Asian countries seeking dollar liquidity/safety as they deal with AI capex outlook troubles, wars, etc.
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Well frens. I did a lot of monetizing today. At my largest size ever and winding down into year-end. Not taking anymore big swings n just locking everything in and managing some open PnL running positions into Jan.
Taking Freddie’s advice and getting me a flute to disappear into the mountains with.
Will still shitpoast and take some smol trades for the love of the game, ofc.
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In 2026 I made it a goal to get out of my comfort zone on the ETFs (SPY GLD IBIT TLT n frens) a bit more, so am proud of myself for doing well on the single stocks.
$MSFT from lows of year (twice), $PLTR up and down to great success, huge $META ManRay top short, and now $NVDA takes the cake obviously.
There were a bunch of losers too, don’t get me wrong, but losers get cut quick and I move on and size safe enough to not blow myself up. The convexity options provide is unmatched. I love this game.
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