Sonia Cabral (@soncabral) header
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Art, music, painting, photography, books, travel, sports, football, tennis, economics, data,...

Portugal
Joined June 2009
Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)Photo by Sonia Cabral (@soncabral)
Very happy to see it published! The welfare cost of an inflation shock on consumers: who loses the most? | Macroeconomic Dynamics | Cambridge Core - cup.org/3Su61sG via @CambUP_Econ #EconTwitter #economics #inflation #consumers #macroeconomics #portugal #welfare
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Universidade Nova de Lisboa hosts the NOVA Science & Innovation Day. The event brings together research projects, innovation initiatives, and a dedicated Innovation Fair designed to show how academic research directly addresses economic and societal challenges. #NovaSBEResearch
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“It’s frightful that people who are so ignorant should have so much influence.” — George Orwell
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O árbitro Vicente Jardim usou um microfone no Queluz - Benfica e o resultado foi este 🎙️
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Super interesting! "What is Work For? Labor, Politics, and Meaning in the Age of AI" by Julian Jacobs. "This paper investigates the role of work in providing a source of meaning, purpose, community, and other non-monetary benefits. Using an original cross-national survey of 8,234 working-age adults across the United Kingdom, United States, Denmark, and India, I study the factors that motivate people in their work, with an eye toward the potential future AI economic transformation. I find that 81% of respondents report being satisfied with their job, and a majority of people across all four countries are strongly motivated by the non-monetary components of their employment. Using an original “Work Values” Index, I show that one third of working respondents in our sample are motivated intrinsically by their job—valuing their role for its own sake. Nearly one quarter of respondents are driven by social and community-related aspects of their employment. A further 17% are driven by a feeling of social status. Just over one quarter of workers are motivated by the transactional financial benefits of their job. Although a majority of people would choose to leave their role if offered their current salary as a guaranteed income, one fifth of workers would choose to stay in their job even if offered up to 120% of their salary. Workers who are intrinsically motivated by their job were disproportionately likely to refuse a basic income at any substitution level. Groups attached to their job for non-monetary reasons were also more likely to pursue volunteering or work-like activities if they received guaranteed income substitution but could no longer perform their current role. Crucially, these non-monetary work motivations are evenly distributed across the income distribution and between white- and blue-collar workers. I argue that these findings have implications for managing the AI transition, understanding attitudes to AI, and making sense of policy preferences. Guaranteeing a basic income may indeed be necessary for managing any future AI labor shock, yet it could ultimately fail to compensate workers for any loss of the non-monetary benefits they derive from work." 1301f6a7-9521-4ab4-a3ca-2d62…
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Englishman in New York
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A @PSP_Portugal mobilizou-se para retirar uma tenda de brincar que as crianças usam na oficina do Espaço Criança, que funciona todos os dias na acampada de Lisboa. Este Governo não tem noção do ridículo? No próximo episódio, até às crianças batem.
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A happy ending to an incredibly exciting journey with stellar coauthors @jandres_blanco, @DrenikAndres, and @e_zaratiegui. Taste the forbidden fruit 🍎 🐍👇🏼
Professor Christian Moser's paper on wage rigidity in labor markets, "The Macroeconomics of Wage Rigidity and Job Separations," was recently accepted by the Review of Economic Studies. Read it here: economoser.com/s/BDMZ2026.pd…
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With elections in Brazil over, let’s take some time to learn about its income distribution. 🇧🇷 A thread on GRID research by @NiklasEngbom , @GMGonzaga2 , @economoser and @betaolivieri 🧵
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In 1969 the US Army Corps of Engineers turned off Niagara Falls. Well, the American Falls. They built a 183 m (600 ft) dam of rock upstream and sent the river round the other side. From June to November, there was a dry cliff where the water should be. 1/2
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👇🌞
Factful Friday dropped! Old news: China won on factories. 👉New news: America won the Office race, adding $7 trillion against China’s $4 trillion. 🤨Here the Office means digitally deliverable services sectors. So what? Well, the Global Office pays more. China may be making a mistake with its factory fixation. linkedin.com/pulse/china-won… cc: @adam_tooze @AdamPosen @agnesbq1 @BetseyStevenson @BrankoMilan @BrookingsEcon @calculatedrisk @carmenmhainhart @CenterOnBudget @cepr_org @CER_Grant @ChadBown @ChrisGiles_ @Claudia_Sahm @D_A_Irwin @DannyQuah @DaronAcemogluMIT @delong @drodrik @elerianm @erikbryn @ezraklein @gabriel_zucman @GitaGopinath @Hugodixon @IMD_Bschool @jamescrabtree @jasonfurman @jburnmurdoch @JustinWolfers
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An honor to have @UChicago's @GregWKaplan on the @HooverInst @CapAndFreedom podcast talking history of macroeconomics from Keynes to HANK. We talk about the Hall-Woodford Nobel Prize, the importance of microfoundations, monetary & fiscal, the purpose of models, and Greg's book.
Why do some households spend their stimulus checks while others save them? On @CapAndFreedom, Hoover Visiting Fellow @Jon_Hartley_ and University of Chicago economist @GregWKaplan explore how differences in income, wealth, and access to cash shape the effects of interest rates and fiscal stimulus—and what that means for economic policy. Watch on Hoover+: hoover.org/plus/research/his…
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A strong contender for most unsettlingly insightful tweet of the year
People who have been in research fields develop a felt sense that most "research" (in almost any field that isn't exactingly technical) is research theater, and many superstar careers enjoy star status not because of a unique connection to the truth but because of a unique connection with an audience. No one really has the time or stature to, from a position of objectivity and trust, bring popular researchers to heel. But it will get increasingly hard to hide from serious critique. The machines can do critique now, at the level of depth and rigor previously only possible for the academically deranged. We're going to have to revise a lot of what we "know" about the world that isn't really knowledge but is actually just received popular consensus - like floating voltages without grounding wires. The grounding wires are coming.
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Academic note: I have tried to be serious as a scholar, teacher and colleague since 1980s. In doing so I have constantly searched for productivity hacks — things that enable me to be more effective at being serious. Little things, like finding the right time of day to do research and to do teaching, or seeking ways to absorb needed knowledge like lectures at Great Courses or New York Review of Books or TLS. I moved from Word Perfect to Word, I have tried Palm Pilot, Blackberry, iPhone, I had a luggable portable computer that I traded in for laptop, and I used computer programs to take notes but switched back to notebooks and pen, and now use Kindle Scribe rather than ReMarkable. I try, I experiment, I assess. I read books in physical form, electronic form and audio. I watch YouTube and listen to podcasts all to help with lectures and papers. I used to search physically in libraries now I search online. My point is simple — I have always looked for ways to augment my skills and improve productivity. AI and LLMs are NO different in my experience. They don’t think for me, but they help speed up search and information gathering. I still have to exercise judgment, absorb what I need, and execute in a lecture, in writing, or in meetings with students and colleagues. The best productivity hack in my career is face to face dialogue with PhD students about ideas. These conversations are infinitely more interesting to me than me prompting Chat or Claude about material. Even working with a student on a difficult problem or struggling to understand concepts is more intellectually rewarding. Maybe I am doing it wrong, or maybe everyone else is describing their experience wrong. Modern AI is not the Palm Pilot, nor early versions of Netscape Browser (BTW, Browzine is a good hack for journal article access). But its not like having Kenneth Boulding, James Buchanan or Gordon Tullock as a teacher either! Its not like having been mentored by Don Lavoie and Karen Vaughn, or first inspired by Hans Sennholz, or arguing about economics 24/7 with Dave Prychitko and Steve Horwitz, let alone working closely with Israel Kirzner and Mario Rizzo for almost a decade, or teaching and learning from scores of PhD advisees at GMU. It just isn’t. Don’t buy the false narrative. It is not a substitute, it is a tool. You need to learn how to use the tool effectively to increase YOUR productivity as a scholar, teacher, and colleague. So invest in it, but at the end of the day you will have to be the one who uses the tool effectively or poorly. YOU, not the machine make the final judgement call.
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Remember when Western journalists discussed whether Israel had destroyed a hospital in Gaza City?
Latest footage from Gaza. Take a moment
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🧵on the AI audit of Saez and Zucman and by implication Piketty (or PSZ together): Since some are objecting to what the computer found, here's a list of biases in this trio's work that were found by humans over the last decade.
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Rusty pulp digester at a paper mill in Connecticut, USA #urbex #machines No 757
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How different are different differences-in-differences? The answer may (or may not) surprise you New working paper, building on a dumb tweet from earlier this month teapaw.org/instrumenthull/status/… A short summary follow:
Why has no one done the massive AI-assisted "how much do negative weights really matter for difference-in-difference" review paper yet?
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O escritor português Hugo Gonçalves venceu o Prémio Literário San Clemente, em Espanha, na categoria de obra estrangeira, com o romance “Revolução”, impondo-se a finalistas como as escritoras Leila Slimani e Ali Smith, foi hoje anunciado. Sabe mais: comunidadeculturaearte.com/h…
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