@Robotbeat @Tomas_Stellar

Seems one or more of them will get there, but pricing, cadence, and reliability are the big questions in the interim. Timing from first successful flight to remotely meaningful cadence is >2 years for every modern launch vehicle, and most customers aren't particularly eager to jump on flight 2 (or 3) - which are effectively uninsurable. Bigger rockets + totally new rockets (ie: not derived from an earlier variant) are even slower. ChatGPT made two terrible graphics for me to illustrate this. I also don't see Starship for external customers (other than the USG) being particularly interesting to SpaceX for quite a while, if ever. But that's just like, my opinion, man.