the research desk of @that1618guy models, flows, setups

Joined February 2023
Full site refresh over at stateofblocks.com > live market reads from our models, updated daily > action log of crypto eco (btc/alts/trenches) > free dashboards: BBWP screener, 9/21 cross, Grift Index, $PONS terminal > free membership access via Discord +more to come
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stateofblocks retweeted
Going full time on @stateofblocks and the discord which means my time at Delphi has wrapped 🫡 big thanks to the Delphi folks - some of the best minds in the space and my work is sharper for it been building toward this for awhile now & excited to go all in. plenty more coming
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stateofblocks retweeted
Why I’m bullish @justinbebis and his vision on how we can innovate the trenches, and how $BUN sits in the middle of all this 👇🏼
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stateofblocks retweeted
ok 2 updates for the $PONS terminal > saw alot of y'all sharing a low res screenshot of the revenue dashboard so i added a screenshot feature that you can use to download a high res chart > recalibrated revenue estimator 🫥
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For those finding out about StateOfBlocks via the free $PONS terminal, you’re welcome: stateofblocks.com/dashboards…
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stateofblocks retweeted
ethereum:0x07f5b6823751c2e2cd4560f28af75ff887102241 RWA fees continues to take a bigger slice of the fee pie, now at 42.4% of all V2 fees even surpassing ETH dont think this trend will be slowing down anytime soon
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stateofblocks retweeted
been 1 month since this $SOL update, and 1W volatility is expanding now as we speak SOL has never been this compressed on the weekly TF
$SOL looking constructive on HTF here > Weekly putting in 2 drives of RSI divergences > Volatility compressed on weekly TF Imo a meaningful bounce can occur from this region v quickly if expansion above 15% read in vol $100 likely target, watching the 9/21 ema cross next
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Interested in a terminal / screener / dashboard that folks will actually use to track your projects growth? Reach out to @that1618guy and let’s work together Anyone can build a dashboard. But a great one helps tell your story properly, the way it should.
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stateofblocks retweeted
if u enjoy the free $PONS terminal i have alot more stuff cooking over on my platform @stateofblocks j published my fav BBWP screener to show how i catch moves like $ENA, $PENGU before they happen. its all free mate, so shoot a follow to support, tyvm! stateofblocks.com
now that we are all bullish $PONS again, let me remind y'all that i have a great terminal here for you to track everything PONS related -Revenue (xRev, Regime etc) -Burn ledger -Twap monitor -Competitor comps -Chain metrics -Screener -etc.
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$ZEC $HYPE $VVV - A privacy coin, a perp dex and an AI token. 3 names that share nothing fundamentally yet trading correlated like one asset for months. Everyone that I spoke to then was in exactly these 3 trades. Which got me thinking… is crowding actually a bad thing? So I wrote The Crowded Book The backdrop: through the first half of 2026 crypto narrowed. $BTC lost its equity correlation to the upside, the pool of investable alts shrank, and across nearly every sector most tokens fell hard. However, these 3 ran anyway. ZEC on a privacy driven scarcity bid, HYPE on buybacks funded by real trading fee cash flow, VVV on a high beta AI trade Then it broke on June 4th. A critical bug was found in Zcash's shielded pool using frontier AI models, ZEC got cut in half and the fear didnt stay contained. Sentiment at that time: If AI could crack a top 15 chain what else was exposed? Over 48 hours ETH SOL HYPE and VVV got pulled down together while BTC barely moved. I call this the june cascade The cascade was a market clearing event. HYPE recovered fully, ZEC clawed back most of a much deeper fall, VVV never got going off the lows. They fell together but the fall alone proves nothing. the recovery is what told them apart Turns out crowding itself is not the problem. What matters is whether the crowd is funded, paid for by something durable like cash flows or a supply sink, or borrowed, resting on leverage and momentum through a thin float. Funded crowding survives a shock. Borrowed crowding hands its gains back the moment the tape turns This report covers why capital narrowed to this list, the cascade as case study, and a scorecard you can run on any crowded position of yr own
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stateofblocks retweeted
Finally gotten around to building this for my @stateofblocks community My personal favorite setup: the weekly 9/21 EMA crossover The problem is I was always flipping through 50+ charts trying to remember which alts were setting up for a trend change ... so I built a screener that does it for me It scans the top 50 alts on Bybit spot every day and tells me: > Which ones are approaching their 9/21 cross (and how many weeks out) > Which ones just crossed and are retesting the EMAs (the real entry) > Which ones have compressed volatility (squeeze) ready to expand Already caught RENDER cross and TON retest Live and free: screener.stateofblocks.com
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stateofblocks retweeted
Heres what FMI looks like in practice When multiple stressors measures fire at once (peaks above 65-75), Alts tend to get fragile & that's when washouts happen FMI push to 75 earlier this month caught the recent Alt pullback nicely Current reading @ 19.5 w 1/7 components elevated meaning cascade risk is low right now More detail to follow
New indicator - "Fast Money Index" or FMI 💸 TLDR when folks make too much money in a short period of time market often rolls over soon after... Qn here is how can we quantify this into a repeatable framework & my answer is via FMI V interesting results, will share more soon
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stateofblocks retweeted
Shared this note with my folks over at @stateofblocks in early Feb 26 when $HYPE ran from $20 to ~$40 was looking for a pullback/consolidation to mid 20s and thats what we got HYPE went from $40 -> $25 j revisited this note and wow... played out amazingly well
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stateofblocks retweeted
Gold's structural cycle still has BTC ahead of it. Gold's 18% pullback from its $5,589 January peak came from three macro drivers: the Warsh nomination sparked hawkish repricing, Operation Epic Fury on February 28 sent oil above $100 and re-accelerated inflation, and the USD rebounded. The PBOC's March 2026 purchase of 5 tonnes was its largest in over a year and brought reserves to 2,313 tonnes, or 9.6% of total reserve assets. Net central bank purchases totaled 244 tonnes globally in Q1 2026, above the prior quarter and the five-year average. 68% of central banks plan to increase gold holdings in 2026, up from 62% last year. The structural bid did not move with the price. Gold and Global M2 have historically led BTC by 3-4 months. The current lag has stretched to 5-6 months. 2020 saw a similar dynamic when COVID delayed the handoff before the cycle re-asserted. The Iran shock may be playing a similar role this cycle.
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stateofblocks retweeted
$SUI full TP (+40%) from entry 🔥 @stateofblocks
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stateofblocks retweeted
Fwiw shared this note back in early March with @Delphi_Digital members on my view on $BTC vs $GOLD BTC/GOLD ratio was sitting at 12.1 then and it’s now at 17.36 up ~ +43%? Still believe H2 of this year will be meaningful for the ratio as the king corn plays catchup
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stateofblocks retweeted
Wow… CPS continues to climb now at 0.9188 while $BTC price grinds out this mid 70k range This is a setup for a large basing area before the eventual blow off -> This is VERY BULLISH for the king corn “BTC is lagging US equities bla bla” “When equities pull back BTC is done”
$BTC is still showing that patience is strong (CPS up and to the right -> makeup of participants rn have longer term horizons) Yes this rally has real backing to it and no, I don’t think shorting the king corn makes sense here
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stateofblocks retweeted
this regime is the healthiest its ever been -> patience continues to climb while $BTC is still held below 80k this current C regime continues to give us clues that it should be durable
BTC has gained 11% since the Game Theory Dashboard shifted to Cooperation. At Day 21, the return is running ahead of the +5.7% historical mean but still within the normal range. Only 32% of Cooperation regimes make it to Day 21. Of the ones that do, 55% go on to last 100+ days.
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