Professor of International Security @unibirmingham; Co-founder of Navigating the Vortex https://xitter.cf/t.co/tuqhutkb79; https://xitter.cf/t.co/PsFTqoeLu3

United Kingdom
Joined June 2009
Iran's war was supposed to be Russia's biggest win. It's also becoming Ukraine's opening — Kyiv's Caspian strike hit the Iran-Russia supply chain directly. navigatingthevortex.com/p/ir… Strategic intel: Join a readership shaping decisions across five continents. Free in your inbox.
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This is not an American lesson. It is the same in Budapest, Ankara or New Delhi. Before pricing what resistance costs, test whether the demand survives the law. Nine US law firms settled with the White House: $940m in pledged pro bono work. Four sued instead. All four won.
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Oil hit $126. The world answered with eighteen rigs. Everything else was on paper. The war didn't cause the imbalance — it audited it.
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#Trump's meetings with #Zelensky and #Netanyahu at Lindsey Graham's funeral produced warm words, not resolution. #Ukraine and #Iran are now feeding each other, run by the same two US envoys. navigatingthevortex.com/p/tr…
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.@osce_odihr's own summary, for anyone who wants the primary source directly rather than secondhand: the full report on Russia's militarization and indoctrination of Ukrainian children.
Today the OSCE #MoscowMechanism report “in relation to the militarization and indoctrination of Ukrainian children by the Russian Federation” was presented to the OSCE Permanent Council. Read the full report here: buff.ly/nfTrYmE
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Glad to see the Group of Friends on Children and Armed Conflict engage directly — this is precisely the kind of standing body that should be pushing for implementation, not just acknowledgement. @ItalyatOSCE
The @OSCE Group of Friends “Children and Armed Conflict” registered with concern the findings of the #MoscowMechanism report on the militarization and indoctrination of🇺🇦children by🇷🇺. We call on participating States to pursue the implementation of its recommendations. 🇮🇹🇵🇱🇧🇪🇦🇱🇳🇴
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Appreciate @GER_OSCE's directness here. 'Deeply concerned' is the right register for findings of this severity — the next question is what participating States do with that concern.
Deeply concerned about the @OSCE #MoscowMechanism Report‘s findings that Russia is systematically subjecting Ukrainian children to militarization, indoctrination, coercion and other repressive practices.
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Grateful to @AmbMCAllemagne and the other 40 participating States. 41 States backing this mechanism is itself a signal — this is not a marginal concern, it's shared recognition that violations at this scale demand a formal response.
Today at the @OSCE Permanent Council, the Principality of #Monaco and 40 other participating States welcomed the 6th #MoscowMechanism report. Independent experts confirmed Russia’s violations of international humanitarian and human rights law against Ukrainian children, including deportation, forced transfer, passportisation and unlawful adoption. These acts may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. @GvtMonaco
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.@PLinOSCE 's list matches ours almost exactly: deportation, passportisation, unlawful adoption — and the explicit line that these may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. That's the correct legal register, not rhetorical escalation.
At #OSCE PC, 🇵🇱 +40 other States welcomed the 6th #MoscowMechanism report. Independent experts confirmed Russia’s violations of IHL & IHRL against Ukrainian children, incl. deportation, passportisation and unlawful adoption. These may amount to war crimes&crimes against humanity.
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Alarming is the right word, and I'd add: deliberate. This is a system that has learned — what took years to build in Crimea after 2014 was rolled out within weeks in territory occupied after 2022. Thank you, @SwedeninATOSCE, for naming it plainly.
Today: presentation of @OSCE #MoscowMechanism expert report on Russia’s indoctrination & militarization of 🇺🇦children. It finds that🇷🇺applies systematic policy of erasing 🇺🇦 identity of children. 🇷🇺must ensure immediate safe return of all deported & forcibly transferred children.
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Appreciate the @CZMissionVienna's clarity on next steps. The disclosures here — probable war crimes, violations of the Fourth Geneva Convention, the Hague Regulations, the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child — warrant exactly the urgent Council action you're calling for.
At the @OSCE PC, 🇨🇿 & 40 other invoking States welcomed the new #MoscowMechanism report. Independent experts confirmed Russia’s violations of intl humanitarian and human rights law against 🇺🇦 children, incl. deportation, forced transfer, passportisation and unlawful adoption.
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Thank you, @Canada2OSCE, for engaging directly with these findings. The scale is what should concern every participating State: from roughly 60,000 to more than 340,000 children in a state paramilitary youth movement since 2022. This is accelerating, not slowing.
The latest @OSCE #MoscowMechanism report shines a light on the devastating impact of Russia's indoctrination and militarisation of Ukrainian children. The protection of children must remain at the forefront of our humanitarian action and diplomatic efforts.
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Presented our @OSCE Moscow Mechanism findings to the Permanent Council today: 20,610 Ukrainian children deported, only 2,264 returned. A six-fold rise in kids enrolled in Russia's youth militarisation programme since 2022. Read & download: navigatingthevortex.com/p/os…
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The personality story is easy. The structural story — how FIFA's patronage model makes accountability impossible — is the one that travels. @lucymarcus's piece explains why.
FIFA reversed a U.S. player's red card this week after Trump called Infantino directly. I diagnosed this exact mechanism starting in 2014 — a captured electorate, 211 federations paid to look away. The rot was always there. @navvortex navigatingthevortex.com/p/fi… #FIFA #Governance
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Stefan Wolff retweeted
June 2026: the global AI-regulation map split in two — rights frame vs industrial frame. Colorado’s law takes effect in 6 days. Canada chose sides. The G7 agreed nothing. Read @navvortex’s map of where every board stands now: navigatingthevortex.com/p/ai… #AI #AIGovernance #corpgov
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New @navvortex piece with Tetyana Malyarenko: Russia's air strikes reached a new peak in mid-May — but the drone/missile production asymmetry is Moscow's structural constraint. The middle ground between further escalation & genuine negotiation is eroding. navigatingthevortex.com/p/uk…
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Armenia's defence procurement: from 90%+ Russian to under 10%. That structural break is already locked in before Sunday's vote. The election sets the pace, not the direction. New True North: navigatingthevortex.com/p/ar… #Geopolitics
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My latest: the US and Iran are being pushed toward a deal by the same escalation risk that makes any deal fragile. Reopening Hormuz is the easy part. The nuclear question is not. #Iran navigatingthevortex.com/p/a-…
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Putin was the 12th world leader to visit Xi this year. The “no-limits friendship” has a clear hierarchy — and the Power of Siberia 2 stalemate confirms who sets the terms. navigatingthevortex.com/p/no…
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