Native Texan | Former Chief Strategy & Ops Officer, City of Houston | Government data & AI | Election Nerd | @ASU alum | Views my own
Joined February 2009
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Steven David retweeted
Following a pivotal election where Democrats broke decades-long statewide winning streaks in Texas, visit a public dashboard by @NORCNews for insights into shifting voter behavior and read the Center for Public Policy’s report on the findings. uh.edu/news-events/stories/2…
The polls said @GinaHinojosaTX would lose. She won by 7. 🔥
Final polling average: Hinojosa 49.0%, Abbott 51.0% (two-party)
Result: Hinojosa 53.6%, Abbott 46.4%
She beat her polls by 4.6 pts and swung the margin 9+. Texas pollsters missed her badly.
votes.stevenrdavid.com
1/ 🗳️ Final turnout is in. Seven of my county dashboards now include Election Day voters: Harris, Dallas, Travis, Bexar, Collin, Williamson and Hidalgo.
Here’s what the rosters show about how Texas voted 🧵
votes.stevenrdavid.com
7/ Turnout looked like a strong midterm, not a presidential year: 88–94% of 2024 across the seven counties, 1.2–1.5x 2022.
The swing came from voters changing their minds, not from a turnout surge.
8/ Still waiting on Tarrant, Denton, Fort Bend and Montgomery to post their Election Day rosters. I’ll add them when they do.Every race I called on election night: votes.stevenrdavid.com/calls…
Young, bright-eyed, thinner Steven in 2010, who worked for the Harris County Democratic Party to Turn Harris Blue is REALLY excited for what just happened. What an election.
cc: @peruchini, @SaysJamaal, @cocokothari, @Natalie_Choate
UPDATED CALL: Scott Bowen (R) wins Texas House, District 129, Harris County. D 49.4 – R 50.6. Based on All vote centers reporting, 8:20 AM CT.
CALL: Jon Bonck (R) wins U.S. House, District 38, Texas. D 47.8 – R 52.2. Based on All vote centers reporting, 8:20 AM CT.
McDonough would need more votes than remain (up to 7,112).
CALL: Mano Deayala (R) wins Texas House, District 133, Harris County. D 46.9 – R 53.1. Based on All vote centers reporting, 6:36 AM CT.
Wallenstein would need more votes than remain (up to 1,593).
CALL: Nathan Johnson (D) wins Attorney General, Texas. D 52.5 – R 47.5. Based on 67% of the expected vote counted, 213 of 254 counties, 10:06 PM CT.
Projected 54.9% Johnson, range 54%–56%.
CALL: Vikki Goodwin (D) wins Lieutenant Governor, Texas. D 52.8 – R 47.2. Based on 66% of the expected vote counted, 204 of 254 counties, 9:50 PM CT.
Projected 54.8% Goodwin, range 54%–56%.
CALL: Gina Hinojosa (D) wins Governor, Texas. D 53.3 – R 46.7. Based on 65% of the expected vote counted, 200 of 254 counties, 9:43 PM CT.
Projected 55.2% Hinojosa, range 54%–57%.
