Toof retweeted
$TMDX
Strong quarter when considering historical seasonality.
Beat my revenue estimates by $6M ex. PAD. They continue to take massive market share as industry donor organ volume was down 6% and DCD volume was down QoQ, yet TMDX product revenue still grew 2% sequentially. This bucks the historical norm, as the company has typically experienced Q3 seasonality with lower revenue QoQ over the past two years. Additionally, it was nice to see sequential improvement in gross margins (ex. PAD) and operating margins. I think it is safe to say margins have bottomed.
- Received full FDA IDE approval, including the use of CHOPS as a control arm, for ENHANCE Heart Part B and DENOVO Lung trials. Expecting material ramp up in Q1 2027. A potential $500M incremental opportunity.
- Awarded first EU transplant logistics tender in Italy, commencing European transplant operations using PAD Aviation (October).
- First quarter you can see a bit of a ramp in international revenue, up 82% YoY to $6.6M.
Significant raise to FY revenue guide and implies an increase sequentially in OCS revenue. Not sure how they get to this though based on soft QTD flight data. Will have to see how the transplant volume data comes in.
$TMDX
Q3 Earnings Preview
Unfortunately, I do not think this earnings report will be great. I will be more focused on any updates from management around their big three catalysts (listed below).
As I have mentioned previously, in the short term margins will be under pressure. Investment and growth is not 1:1. Management is planting the seeds for future growth. It is up to you to decide if you believe in management's execution and capital allocation strategy.
All figures are ex PAD acquisition as there has not been any financial figures provided for PAD and should be rather immaterial.
Revenue
I expect revenue to be $186M, slightly down QoQ but still at a healthy 28% growth YoY.
Gross Margin %
Gross Margin for both Product and Service revenue have been down YTD even though the % of internal flights has increased. Why is this? Management has attributed it to product mix and logistical costs. We know the latter has not improved. The former is anyone's guess. Management itself has guided for 59% gross margin ex PAD in 2H. FWIW, I see more downside risk to this number than upside thus far into the year.
Operating Expense
R&D jumped 100% YoY to $32M last quarter. I would not expect it to be one-time given the investments they have to make and management has noted this is structural, multi quarter investment rather than a one-time consulting charge or accounting anomaly.
Operating Margin
All this makes it difficult to see an operating margin above last quarter, 12.5%, and one below 10% is plausible.
Personally, I am in wait and see mode and do not see a need to rush into anything at the moment as margins will continue to be under pressure until the growth is realized from their investments:
1) Next-gen OCS in Heart and Lung (should be able to see this in the transplant data if/when it occurs)
2) International NOP expansion
3) Introduction of kidney NOP (should also be able to see this in the data if/when it occurs)
Toof retweeted
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures erase all losses and turn green as investors buy the dip after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a Chinese spy.
The Nasdaq just lost -$250 billion and added +$300 billion all within 7 minutes of the market's initial reaction to the news.
LFG @CoorsLightCEO
ICYMI, we’re partnering with @Oracle to bring Google TPUs to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure in 2027.
OCI will be the first hyperscaler outside Google to offer TPUs, giving you more choices for purpose-built compute → goo.gle/3Wgxm3H
Toof retweeted
NVIDIA’S BOARD HAS JUST RELEASED AS OFFICIAL STATEMENT OVER THE SCANDAL
*NVIDIA BOARD LAUNCHES INDEPENDENT PROBE INTO REPORTED INTEL TARGETING OF CEO JENSEN HUANG
*NVIDIA BOARD SAYS NO REASON TO BELIEVE SECRETS OR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY COMPROMISED
*NVIDIA REAFFIRMS CONFIDENCE IN HUANG, SAYS CEO FULLY COOPERATING WITH REVIEW
$NVDA
Toof retweeted
Don’t be surprised when $ETH finally shatters $3,000 this week
We’re going to end 2026 with a bang and carry that momentum into a historic 1Q27
Believe
Toof retweeted
Ethereum is digital gold
Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token".
Three primary reasons:
1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed
2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance.
3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS)
EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere.
The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.
Toof retweeted
V just summed-up the 3 Vs of Ethereum:
1. Value: ETH.
2. Values: CROPS & Decentralization
3. Valuation: Not happy with the current one.
Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token".
Three primary reasons:
1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed
2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance.
3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS)
EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere.
The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.
Toof retweeted
please if you are in crypto, and *especially* if you are in Ethereum, read this thread
it's a 'nature is healing' moment from Vitalik and is saying so much of what a bunch of us ETH holders have believed for years...even some of the REV maxis from last cycle are having a similar realization now with Zcash
P.S.: I think on fundamentals ETH can be a much better SoV than both ZEC and BTC, though I'm in ZEC now as well...the fundamental question is whether smart contracts are a help or hindrance to SoV (and Vitalik himself lays out the dilemma well below) and there is a bunch of theory around this, but I lean that net/net they are a help because it means you potentially never have to exit that hard-money CROPS ecosystem to use your money privately & keep it private...and *use* means more than just 'spending' . . .
Expanding on why I believe "ETH as store of value (SoV)" makes much more sense to focus on than "ETH as fee-burning token".
Three primary reasons:
1. ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed
2. Optimizing for ETH as fee-burning token would demand Ethereum and ETH function in ways that are very hard to make compatible with decentralization and capture resistance.
3. Meanwhile, optimizing for ETH as SoV is aligned with Ethereum focusing on its unique strengths (decentralization and CROPS)
EIP-1559 (including its burn) is fine and good, we should keep them. But we should not feel sad if fee burn is < 10% of breakeven indefinitely; the value of ETH comes from elsewhere.
The core idea: the big thing that people appreciate about Ethereum is decentralization and CROPS. The main pragmatic benefit that these things translate into is stability. SoV is the category where that is not an unneeded extra we merely put effort into for ideological reasons, but rather a pragmatic strength from the perspective of people putting in their assets. And in the era of AI disruption, stability will be highly valued.