@sumsof1

Full time prediction markets trader

Joined April 2018
  • Tweets863
  • Following1.9K
  • Followers760
11
296
Replying to @theMacroChip
At least they take feedback seriously
4
168
Replying to @dan_bernstein_
It's always funny how people get mad about fake Kalshi markets when there were real ones like this. Most prediction markets journalists don't do any original research.
6
245
After the addition of maker fees on Kalshi combos, market makers have widened their spreads meaning that takers are bearing the cost of the fees. Exactly what you'd expect from standard economic incidence analysis!
Line and scatter plot titled 'Market Maker Edge for Select Uncorrelated Combos Relative to Pre-Fees Mean.' The y-axis shows edge change versus the pre-fee mean, in cents per contract; the x-axis spans August 18–22, 2026. Grey dots are hourly averages of market-maker edge on Kalshi combos priced between 20 and 80 cents, combining our fills with competitors' fills. A bold purple line is the fill-weighted 24-hour rolling average with a ±1 standard error band; a solid grey line marks zero (pre-fee baseline), a dashed vertical line marks the August 20 fee launch at 03:59 UTC, and an annotation marks the post mean of +0.42 cents. Before fees, the rolling line hovers near zero with slight upward drift. After fees go live, it climbs steeply for 12–18 hours, then holds flat near +0.4 cents: competitors moved prices about 0.4 cents further from our fair value once maker fees took effect.

ALT Line and scatter plot titled 'Market Maker Edge for Select Uncorrelated Combos Relative to Pre-Fees Mean.' The y-axis shows edge change versus the pre-fee mean, in cents per contract; the x-axis spans August 18–22, 2026. Grey dots are hourly averages of market-maker edge on Kalshi combos priced between 20 and 80 cents, combining our fills with competitors' fills. A bold purple line is the fill-weighted 24-hour rolling average with a ±1 standard error band; a solid grey line marks zero (pre-fee baseline), a dashed vertical line marks the August 20 fee launch at 03:59 UTC, and an annotation marks the post mean of +0.42 cents. Before fees, the rolling line hovers near zero with slight upward drift. After fees go live, it climbs steeply for 12–18 hours, then holds flat near +0.4 cents: competitors moved prices about 0.4 cents further from our fair value once maker fees took effect.

6
18
2
250
20,550
Polymarket US seems to be going well...
1
4
417
Kalshi has created a new website that encourages users to submit AI generated comments to the CFTC supporting prediction markets.
4
1
1
37
9,592
Fees on Polymarket have effectively doubled with zero warning. They quietly updated the formula in the docs to remove the p factor. On average fees will be twice as high, but in some cases the difference will be nearly 100x
27
13
1
212
24,715
Replying to @tomkysar
Would you consider this to be a good project thing to do?
52
Kalshi just closed and paid out a basketball game that's still ongoing
15
7
8
182
59,380
Load more