"Microsoft launches Notion competitor!" "SEC investigates Coinbase!" This is all noise. Based on 8 yrs as an angel investor (100+ checks), late-stage broker (1,000+ pre-IPO deals / ~$1B), benefiting from my wife picking exceptional companies to work for (Airtable, Coinbase)... I've realized that there are very few signals that matter. EARLY STAGE - Would I hesitate to compete with them? - Is it a painful problem? Literally no other signals matter. "They've built a great product!" or "they have major regulatory threats" or "great LTV/CAC" or "Microsoft / Google will also do it." All noise. Guess what? Someone builds a better product. Partnerships end. Lead-gen slows. BigCos move in. It's *insanely hard* to change the caliber and culture of a team, and it's *essentially impossible* to convince customers of a problem they don't have. LATE STAGE - Do VCs, engineers and hedge funds love it? Those are respectively proxies for a) TAM / execution, b) talent density / product defensibility, c) raw financials. At this point, the juggernaut's already running, and these are the defining characteristics. This is why you should never bet against people like @brian_armstrong @ivanhzhao @avlok @immad @davidbooth @yinyinwu @sashaorloff... all working in competitive spaces but they are so scary good that they'll *just find a way to win*. Proud to be very long all of these companies. (Yes I'm talking my book, but only because I've had the honor of indirectly observing how these teams execute through highs and lows.)