Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://xitter.cf/t.co/5H8XIhN7eK
Joined September 2014
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Superforecasters have favored a Fed pause at this month’s meeting ever since the September decision, while the markets leaned toward another hike. In recent days, though, the financial and prediction markets have again been catching up with our Superforecasters.
“If forecasters can keep questioning themselves and their teammates, and welcome vigorous debate, the group can become more than the sum of its parts.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Before-and-after testing of our 2022 workshop participants showed a 37% average reduction in collective bias. Cognitive bias is one of four main areas we cover across the two days. Join us 17-18 November.
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The full workshop research: goodjudgment.com/wp-content/…
Workshop details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
“Learning to forecast requires trying to forecast. Reading books on forecasting is no substitute for the experience of the real thing.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Over 4 years and 100s of questions, GJP Superforecasters showed a ratio of skill to luck that rivals professional athletes, and that record still holds more than 10 years & many more questions later. Forecasting talent is real and measurable, which is where the workshop begins.
17 & 18 November. You take our aptitude screening before day one, and facilitators discuss what the group results suggest once we are underway.
Details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
“The strongest predictor of rising into the ranks of superforecasters is perpetual beta, the degree to which one is committed to belief updating and self-improvement.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting
Next workshop: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Good Judgment Inc retweeted
I'm looking forward to my presentation at Predict 2026 on "Superforecasting Prediction Markets." If you're there and want to meet up, just give a shout! predict-conference.com/
“Forecasters who use ambiguous language and rely on flawed memories to retrieve old forecasts don’t get clear feedback, which makes it impossible to learn from experience. They are like basketball players doing free throws in the dark.” - Tetlock & Gardner in Superforecasting.
Good Judgment Inc retweeted
We’ve partnered with @SCOTUSblog on a Supreme Court forecasting challenge for the 2026-27 term. Forecast the term’s biggest cases on GJ Open. On 15 of them, we’ll compare the crowd with AI models. The top three will win a prize. Join for free: gjopen.com/challenges/146-sc…
In collaboration with Good Judgment Inc, we’re now giving readers a way to formally prognosticate how the court will decide the most important cases of the term.
scotusblog.com/2026/09/annou…
“Be cooperative but not deferential. Consensus is not always good; disagreement not always bad.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
Next week! Superforecasting Workshop, 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT. Two afternoons, live. Small groups, taught by professional Superforecasters and researchers.
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Discounted rates for government, NGO, and student attendees.
Details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
A participant who came in with an intelligence background rated the workshop above the structured analytic techniques taught in the field. Two afternoons, 29-30 September, 12:00-2:30 pm EDT.
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Discounted rates are available for government, NGO, and student attendees.
Details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…
“Look at how foxes approach forecasting. They deploy not one analytical idea but many and seek out information not from one source but many. Then they synthesize it all into a single conclusion. In a word, they aggregate.” - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.
Two weeks to the next Superforecasting Workshop. A 2024 participant on what they took away: outstanding instructors, and content that applies across industries. Join us 29-30 September.
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Discounted rates are available for government, NGO, and student attendees.
Details: goodjudgment.com/services/up…
Book a seat: tickettailor.com/events/good…