Phoenix, AZ
Joined December 2007
Tony Cani retweeted
Lots of people are asking me where to give money - go to the DLCC's target races page and pick whoever you like best! Your $ will make an impact and get put to use immediately. We've gotten our asses kicked for years at the state leg level. Help stop it. dlcc.org/races/
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Anyone claiming early voting trends are pointing to a particular outcome is probably: 1. An election denier setting the stage for another round of some b.s. stolen election narrative. 2. An operative working for or against a candidate. Stay the course. Vote.
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Folks. Vote harder. We can oust Bobby.
Rick Scott says if Republicans lose the Senate then Dr Oz and RFK Jr will lose their jobs 🤔
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People love @chilis too. We just don’t want the White House looking like one.
Does Obama not understand that to most Americans the Cheesecake Factory is a very nice and fancy restaurant?
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Heap probably has another vacation planned and his chief of staff apparently has another taxpayer funded job to focus on.
Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap (R), agrees to reinstate voting rights of American citizens, Arizona AG Kris Mayes (D), says. The decision follows a court proceeding this morning where the judge asked the two sides to try to work things out with a mediator.
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Cue mad Jake Hoffman.
After successful mediation efforts, Recorder Heap will reinstate the voting status of citizens at issue in this case. It should not have taken litigation to make Justin Heap follow the law — that is his duty and the duty of all election officials.
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Another person raising flags about day to day comparisons to previous cycle returns by vote methodology. Voter behavior is way too in flux to draw conclusions.
Because of this, an easy way to have your early voting analysis look awful in 11 days is to do apples to apples comparisons of 2026 mail vote to the 2022/2024 mail vote, and to do apples to apples comparisons of the 2026 in-person early vote to the 2022/2024 in-person early vote.
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I wonder what state Elon Musk lives in.
JoAnna Mendoza boasts about raising millions, but here is the reality: her donors are just like her endorsers… they can’t even vote for her. Mendoza is running a fabricated campaign, fueled by out-of-state interests, not Arizona priorities. California and New York don’t speak for AZ06. Arizonans do. And I’ll never stop fighting for the people I actually represent.
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Is the campaign saying the ad is referring to Acton lying about whether she brushed her teeth before bed? Whether she ate the last cookie? Dr. Acton was 12! the last time her mom saw her & it was in a courtroom after Acton’s stepdad was charged with rape. To be clear, they rolled out her mom to validate claims Acton is a compulsive liar. Her mom does so in the ad by saying "she's lied HER ENTIRE LIFE." What else could that refer to other than Acton reporting her abuse?
In Strongsville, Ramaswamy blames the media for lying about his ad featuring opponent Dr. Amy Acton's estranged mother. “It had nothing to do with child abuse," Ramaswamy told supporters. “They are changing the subject because they don’t want to answer for their own failures.”
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Another example that voter behavior (timing method) is in a major state of flux. That's why evaluating a single days returns v 4 years ago is not predictive.
The number of people in OR and WA switching from mailing their ballot to putting it in a drop box is truly wild.
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On the plus side, Suns really did a great job drafting @toomany_buckets.
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I think @MatthewGress will see this and say “great job Heap!!”
NEW: Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes just filed a mandamus action, asking a judge to force Maricopa County Recorder Justin Heap to carry out his "nondiscretionary duty to immediately restore the" voting rights of 23 people his office previously alleged were noncitizens.
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Replying to @MerissaCaldwell
@MerissaCaldwell is filing CFR transaction memos showing she's spending some of the money @NortonforAZ and @TPAction gave to spend on behalf of the "problematic" Green Party nominee for Governor.
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It’s hard to tell when he’s tweeting BS to reassure donors they haven’t wasted their money vs. when his tweets are just stuff he’s repeating in his head over and over, starting to spill out to the public. I don’t know a single Dem upset with how things are going. Which says a lot since Dems are panic prone while watching results come in.
Democrats in Arizona seem to be quite upset with how this election is going
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I actually believe this. Trump probably hates it when anyone else enriches themselves by selling access to the government. He expects his family to have a monopoly on that type of corruption.
Vance: There is no person who hates the idea of people enriching themselves fraudulently over access to the government than Donald J. Trump
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I have greatly enjoyed watching America feel the same things I have felt about Vivek Ramaswamy since the fall of 2003
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Tony Cani retweeted
In case you heard otherwise, here’s a reminder:
Arizona: Election Day is November 3, 2026. For trusted information visit Arizona.Vote.
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Can’t blame the office for not responding. I mean maybe @azjustinheap is out of town on another vacation instead of doing his job. And ive been told his chief @SamThePol has at least one other tax payer funded contract/job other than this one, so maybe Sam was out doing that.
“It wasn’t clear why the recorder's phone line listed the wrong date. Heap's office did not respond to a voicemail or emails requesting comment. “
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Tony Cani retweeted
I've tracked more than a dozen polls of the Arizona gubernatorial race over the last few months, along with the party splits in each one. I've also said before that comparing early ballot returns strictly to 2022, without context, is problematic. Republicans were told not to vote early that year, so the early vote was structured differently than it is now. So here's what early ballots look like if the polling is close to accurate: Polling party split average:
🔴 Republican 38
🔵 Democrat 32
🟡 Other 30 Early returns from @StealthPolling, Oct 20:
🔴 Republican 37.8 (-0.2)
🔵 Democrat 39.7 (+7.7)
🟡 Other 22.4 (-7.6) #AZGov polling average:
🔵 Hobbs 48
🔴 Biggs 42
🟡 Other and undecided 10
Margin: Hobbs +6 Reweighted to the early return mix:
🔵 Hobbs 51 (+3)
🔴 Biggs 40 (-2)
🟡 Other and undecided 9 (-1)
Margin: Hobbs +11 That's not a prediction. Republicans are still returning ballots and the mix will keep changing. It's an estimated yardstick, based on polling, for when early votes get counted.
🗳️ ARIZONA EARLY BALLOTS - 15 days out 371,086 returned of 3,251,294 issued 🔴 R 139,944 (37.7%) 🔵 D 148,618 (40.0%) ⚪ O 82,524 (22.2%) Republicans are a bigger share of the early vote than 2022 at this same point (36.7%). In 2022 the early vote finished R+2.6. 2.88M ballots still out.
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