Thomas Lamb

Cameco's Message to Uranium Utilities: Stop Believing Every Mining Presentation Cameco's Q3 earnings call revealed something far more interesting than its quarterly results. During the Q&A, President Grant Isaac explained why utilities are still reluctant to secure uranium supplies, despite rising prices and growing concerns about future production. And some of his comments were remarkably blunt. 1. Uranium Contracts Are Already Reaching $160/lb Cameco revealed the terms it is seeing on small volumes of new long-term business: Price floors: US$75–80/lb Price ceilings: Up to US$160/lb Fixed-price components: Above US$100/lb These are escalated contract prices, not today's spot quotations. Despite these stronger terms, Cameco refuses to chase additional sales volumes. Management believes the real contracting cycle hasn't even started. 2. Utilities Have Been Living Off Old Contracts According to Isaac, utilities have collectively contracted less uranium than they consume every year since 2012. How was that possible? They bought enormous quantities during earlier uranium booms and have been drawing down those commitments ever since. But those old contracts eventually expire. Cameco argues that uranium prices have already risen substantially without utilities returning to normal replacement-rate contracting. Imagine what happens when they finally do. 3. Cameco Doesn't Believe the Production Forecasts This was arguably the most revealing part of the Q&A. Isaac said utilities attending uranium investment conferences could leave believing the Athabasca Basin will deliver another 45 million pounds of annual production in the early 2030s. Cameco's assessment? It doesn't consider that remotely realistic. Yet those projections influence purchasing decisions. Utilities see presentations promising enormous new production and assume they'll have plenty of suppliers competing for their business. That's a dangerous assumption if those projects encounter financing problems, permitting delays or disappointing economics. 4. Cameco Thinks Uranium Needs Higher Prices Even at US$90–100/lb, Cameco isn't rushing to maximize production. Management pointed out that its operations remain roughly 30% below their combined licensed production capacity. Rabbit Lake and its US mines remain on care and maintenance, while other production expansion opportunities remain unused. Isaac believes higher prices are necessary to encourage sufficient new supply. 5. Russian Supply Remains a Wild Card Some utilities are apparently hoping Western restrictions on Russian nuclear fuel will eventually disappear. That could make additional supply available and weaken prices. Cameco isn't betting on that outcome. Management also stressed that uncertainty over future Russian market access makes it reluctant to commit capital to expanding conversion capacity. My Take As a uranium investor, I found the discussion about unrealistic production forecasts particularly interesting. Utilities are apparently delaying purchases partly because they believe new mines will arrive and compete for their business. But I've spent enough time looking at uranium developers to know how easily a promising production schedule can fall apart. I don't know when utilities will finally return to replacement-rate contracting. And Cameco certainly doesn't know either. What I find encouraging is that management appears willing to sacrifice near-term sales growth rather than lock away valuable uranium at prices it considers inadequate. Of course, that discipline comes with a cost. Cameco must maintain its assets and absorb inflation while waiting for better business. But if even half the promised new uranium production fails to arrive on schedule, the negotiating position of established producers could improve considerably. And I suspect some utilities will eventually regret how much faith they placed in mining presentations. Cameco | NYSE: $CCJ | TSX: $CCO youtu.be/SD9Z-TA9Lf4?is=OeNc…

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Myriad Uranium Expands Into Argentina! 🇦🇷 Yesterday, we announced a proposed acquisition of the Los Altares Uranium Project, adding approximately 55,000 hectares across 23 properties in Argentina’s prolific Cerro Solo #uranium district. ☢️ Strategic district-scale land package 📍 Near major uranium deposits and a historic mine ⛏️ Extensive historical drilling and exploration potential Myriad continues to expand its uranium portfolio in key jurisdictions as global demand for uranium & #nuclearenergy grows. Read the announcement 👇 myriaduranium.com/myriad-ura…