experimenting at @magicmarkets I like to run until my feet hurt
Joined August 2022
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introducing myself 🧵
im building the mobile play for magic markets, going head to head with polymarket and kalshi
been checking volume in thumper on nba games this week.
same 40¢ price hits different when theres $2m through vs $8k.
handy to see that next to the all-in price before you size up
magicmarkets.com/thumper?utm…
TEB retweeted
New: Deposit in seconds with @BlinkCashX, get access to the most sports liquidity anywhere in the world. About as easy as it gets.
bofa says prediction markets are already at a $1.5tn annualized pace.
funny bit is only 6% of that volume isnt sports or crypto. wall street keeps forecasting the rest. traders are still mostly on sports.
thumper side panel also has a simple arb check across venues.
not free money. just a heads up when two books disagree enough to notice.
nfl sunday is when i actually look at it
phantom just rolled prediction markets into the wallet for us users.
distribution is the whole game. nobody opens a second app for a 40¢ position
saturday night fight card. thumper's side panel also shows edge vs a fair (devigged) price, not just which venue is cheaper.
a 2¢ gap isnt always edge. depends what the fair is.
magicmarkets.com/thumper?utm…
thumper isnt just nba and epl. it also runs on polymarket ufc, boxing, tennis, cricket and rugby pages
ufc 333 this weekend. open a fight and it shows which venue has the better price, with polymarket's fee added back in
tell me what breaks 🙏
magicmarkets.com/thumper?utm…
TEB retweeted
asked the ai to find vulnerabilities in my portfolio and it just drew a box around me at 4am 🦝
kalshi wants to bring back markets on the price of renting gpus.
from the building side: listing it is the easy bit. getting enough people on both sides so the price actually means something is the hard bit
TEB retweeted
The price on screen isnt always the price you pay
On Liverpool vs Villarreal, Polymarkets draw costs 21.8c all-in, while MagicMarkets offers 20.8c
Thats a $12 difference in potential payout on a $100 trade
Across 100 comparable trades, thats $1,200. Same stake, different execution price
Thumper is a free Chrome extension that puts @magicmarkets prices next to Polymarket sports markets, so you can compare the real cost before trading
Check the price
Then take the trade
1/ i built a chrome extension for @magicmarkets that shows you when polymarket isn't the cheapest place to take a sports position
it's called thumper. Free to use, no account required 🧵