This is problematic

I read this and I'm terrified, the situation seems intractable. In the python ecosystem alone every cpython install, venv, UV is at risk. Don't get my started on npm, pnpm, yarn, go, rust. My current 2026 security posture: stay home and only connect to the internet from a trusted ISP. The winter is coming. discuss.python.org/t/informa…

These weights are controversial in EA circles. There are exceptions but EAs tend to be very concerned about human survival and flourishing.

There is nothing scarier than the average Anthropic shareholder’s idea of the public good.

In harness engineering, open source means free distribution. There is almost no way to defend software in this domain unless the software contributes to model quality. In that case, software is eaten up by the model so quickly that you delete it all eventually.

This is wild... Russia seems to be threatening a *commercial* satellite that provides imaging services to Ukraine: ▸ starting about two weeks ago, Russia started maneuvering five (!) of their classified satellites to the same orbital inclination as the ICEYE satellite ▸ these burns were big, on the order of 100 m/s, clearly using chemical propulsion given the speed of the burns — very expensive and deliberate maneuvers ▸ as of last Friday, all five Russian satellites are now co-planar, at ~97.8° inclination, with three of ICEYE's satellites, and aligned in other orbital elements (e.g. RAAN) that make it clear they're specifically targeting this set ▸ I am a little skeptical that Russia is specifically targeting -X36 — there are two other satellites at the same inclination/RAAN (-X37 and -X38) — but the Russian sats are now all within striking distance of -X36, which is why people are concerned about it specifically; the closest cross-track distance is an estimated 500 meters (!!), all while the satellites are orbit 550 kilometers above Earth ▸ Russia has unleashed a cyberattack on a commercial satellite before (Viasat), and it is official Russian policy that commercially-owned infrastructure that aids in military efforts "may be legitimate target[s] for a retaliatory strike.” ▸ there's speculation that this could be a precursor to an RPO mission (meaning: physically grabbing the satellite or some other kind of non-kinetic attack like blinding/jamming) Worth tracking closely. And unfortunately more evidence that space is militarizing, fast.

They can delay it for another hundred years and the financials are not going to change. Mass adoption of their products has not occurred in the four years since they have become mainstream. Unless their product changed it in such a remarkable way, was consistent in its outputs, trustworthy in its behaviors, reliable in its accessibility and at a reasonable price point with a large enough reward for each user, the situation is unlikely to change. Using Apple as an example again, the iPhone saved them. It was an amazing product. Still is and it works every time. The CEO was an amazing leader and manager. He was polarizing and brilliant. The launch for the iPhone event is something that myself and other tech experts rewatch like it's an old movie because it was such an amazing presentation. We even rewatch the two commencement speeches he gave, because the advice was solid and they were awesome speeches. No one is lining up to listen to Dario or Sam speak, by comparison. Sam is a better speaker and he's more approachable but Dario is not. He makes people uncomfortable. Both are the faces of their organizations and so when people think of Anthropic or OpenAI, they think of those two and all the apocalyptic speeches they have given over time. Why anyone would think that a selling point for a product was to tell the prospective buyer that it might kill you was a good idea is beyond me. The market has responded. They will IPO though. Wall Street is absolutely going to let that happen so that they can raid their coffers. And not for any other reason. Anyone who gets involved with their stock is going to lose their shirt. When analysts are front running the comments like it is not a viable business, that is not being said by accident and it should absolutely be taken into consideration before you invest in the corporation they are speaking about in this way. The whole point supposedly to join the stock market is to have another revenue source from which the organization can draw from in downturns. And a lot of other reasons but mainly it's to make money. If they're telling you before they even get on the stock market that they're unlikely to make money, well, doesn't get any clearer than that. Believe the guys and gals in the stock market who are telling you to stay away from this thing. They are the experts.

Can someone please buy Wired and fix it

Pacing is out the window. For it to work, every American lab needed to be on board, Mark Zuckerberg has repeatedly made it clear that he is not interested. One defection among US labs breaks it all, as the others will be forced to accelerate or get passed. Mark has a staggering amount of compute and has been all in on compute capex for years; even in the face of some investor opposition he never stopped building his infra once. He said on the the earnings call a couple of years ago that he'd rather overspend now, and potentially even be wrong, than not have the compute when he needed it for the next 10x. He's finally hitting his stride, and he is not going to slow down. For Team Pacing to solve a defection like this, they would have needed a supportive, pro-Pacing administration that was passing capability regulations and was willing to use the power of the federal government to enforce them and bring noncompliant labs into line. They don't have any of this. In fact, it's the opposite! Mark has Trump's ear, and President Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen are completely aligned on policy; It's full speed ahead, and if you want to pace yourself, go ahead, but don't tell anyone else what to do. This breaks Pacing. None of this changes until 2029 at the earliest, and to me, 2029 is past the ASI window. The last election, as it turns out, really was the most important one in history.