hamyak retweeted
Until this is solved memecoins are completely capped and other forms of crypto games will overtake it.
Vamps seem impossible to solve.
In normal casino land, retention is created by chasing losses
Because there are established rules where you know someone will win
In memecoin casino
You can follow the rules and end up picking the correct coin
But you will still get slammed because nobody wants to buy a coin after a certain price so they make a vamp
So you can’t really chase losses because there are no rules or any real hope of winning if you’re a normal person
You can’t build the next great casino without rules
hamyak retweeted
OVERTRADING
October 10, 2025
i had what would become the single biggest one-day loss of my career
i lost eight figures in minutes due to systemic failures on the biggest CEXs, and to this day, no one has taken accountability for what happened
my losses made headlines and became one of the biggest stories to come out of that day
but what many people don't know is what happened in the weeks and months that followed
i lost several million more
and i did it by making one of the biggest mistakes traders like me tend to make:
OVERTRADING
in hindsight, i would have been far better off shutting everything down for the next few months or even quarters
i probably would have become a much better trader if i had simply stayed away from the computer for at least six months
but a part of me was desperate for action
a part of me wanted to make it all back
a part of me wanted to prove that i still had what it takes and that i would get back on my feet
i wanted to 'work'
and sitting back, doing nothing, and staying away from the computer for a prolonged period didn't feel like work
except that, for a trader, being AFK can sometimes be the most important work you do
one of the biggest mistakes i made — and that many traders make — is assuming that skill, experience, and process are enough to consistently outperform the market
they aren't
believe it or not, successful trading is often a combination of skill, favorable market conditions, timing, and luck
as a Christian, i attribute the 'luck' component to GOD's blessings and favor rather than sheer luck
but the underlying principle remains the same:
our biggest wins often come from combining a solid process with being in the right place at the right time
sometimes, that means catching a single exceptional trade
other times, it means being positioned during a streak of opportunities that emerge in quick succession because market conditions are overwhelmingly in your favor
for example, you could have been a memecoin god simply by being active in the market during the explosive memecoin era of 2021, which produced $DOGE, $SHIB, $FLOKI, and several other billion-dollar runners
many traders made life-changing money during that period
but the same sophisticated processes that helped some of us make 7, 8, or even 9 figures during the bull market would have failed miserably in the bear market that followed in 2022
the same principle applies to the 2024–early 2025 era, which produced several multibillion-dollar runners like $WIF, $POPCAT, and $FARTCOIN
and then the prolonged dearth of opportunities after $TRUMP leading to 10/10 and the almost one-year period following
the point is simple:
the edge that makes you money in one market environment won't necessarily make you money in another
and one of the most important skills you can develop as a trader is recognizing when your edge is no longer there
sometimes, the best trade is no trade at all
sometimes, the smartest thing you can do is take a bow, step away, and wait for the next opportunity
even if only temporarily
it's almost impossible to consistently beat the market over a sufficiently long timeframe
but as crypto traders, we have one significant advantage:
we don't need to outperform the market every single day, week, or month to generate exceptional returns
historically, crypto's bull phases have tended to occupy a disproportionate share of the cycle, with bear phases accounting for a smaller portion
using one historical framework, the bull phase averages approximately 1,060 days, or 74% of the cycle, while the bear phase averages around 380 days, or 26%
but if your definition of a bull run is narrower — i.e. a period of explosive momentum when $BTC trades above its 200-day moving average and much of the cycle's biggest price action occurs — then the window becomes significantly shorter
under that framework, we're talking about approximately 237 days, or around 16% of the cycle
these figures are estimates based on particular definitions of market phases, not universal constants
but the broader lesson remains:
you don't need to trade every market. you need to recognize the windows when your edge is strongest and capitalize on them
for the rest of the time, there's nothing wrong with stepping away entirely or trading only with a tiny fraction of your portfolio that you can comfortably afford to lose
preserving your capital, your mental clarity, and your ability to recognize the next major opportunity is far more important than forcing trades in unfavorable conditions
because the goal isn't to be active all the time
the goal is to be positioned when it matters most
and to have the discipline to do nothing when it doesn't
to conclude, i only wish i had followed this advice myself
hopefully, i'll do a better job of applying it going forward, GOD WILLING
hamyak retweeted
GENNY PUMP NARRATIVE,
Pumpfun just started using this new AI character to onboard normies in their ads!
He's a normie then becomes rich with pumpfun, they are pushing ads all over X and IG with him on them to onboard the masses,
Literally the representation of Normie changing their life with memecoins and no one has noticed!?!
teapaw.org/FeineCapital/status/21…
hamyak retweeted
Honestly whoever came up with the @UsePaid concept is a genius, they turned Crypto Twitter from a parasitic swarm to one symbiotic with its memetic host
It's like an evolutionary fork in the memecoin landscape
hamyak retweeted
Assets added to the roadmap today: Useless Coin (USELESS)
coinbase.com/blog/increasing…
hamyak retweeted
Crypto Twitter’s memecoin cycle: pick a KOL, worship him, then get sold out.
This is easily avoidable if you learn the basics: incentives, on-chain flows, and reflexive narratives.
I’ll use #USELESS as a case study : it’s down roughly 50% from its ATH, and @theunipcs “Bonk Guy” is polarizing across CT — which makes it a perfect example of how incentives + reflexivity create rapid pump-and-dump cycles.
RULE 1 : INCENTIVE IS EVERYTHING
In crypto, nothing happens without incentive: whether it’s monetary, social, or psychological. Protocols, whales, founders, exchanges, traders all move for a reason. If you understand the incentive, you understand the play.
Looking at #USELESS , who’s incentivized for it to pump ?
1. @bonkfun Eco → $USELESS is their flagship meme coin. If it dies, it sends a loud signal across CT that no legit runner will ever come from their platform. That means fewer deployers, fewer coins, and less reason for gamblers to choose their casino over the others
2. @theunipcs (aka Bonk Guy) → Like any KoL, he works for his bags and ironically, KoLs tend to fight hardest when the coin they backed is tanking. That’s when they try to “prove” to CT they can turn it around . Even if LetsBONK wasn't there , this is more of a personal thing for him . Just scroll through his timeline and compare how he tweets VS how @SolportTom tweets , you’ll understand that he takes it more personal compared to the rest of the bonk team .
3. @RaydiumProtocol → When Raydium clapped back at PumpFun by launching LaunchLabs (which birthed LetsBONK), they were hyped at its early success. No way they’re letting BonkFun — and by extension #USELESS fail . Evidence?
- They’ve been actively shilling the
BONK eco , look at their page to find out .
- Their revenue went from daily +$450K to barely cracking an avg of $250K for past 3 days , so keeping BONK eco hot is in their direct interest.
If you don’t already know it's all an incentives game by now , close this app , get a real job coz crypto is not for you .
RULE 2 : LOOK ON-CHAIN
Where’s the money flowing ???
If you want to know what’s really happening, stop reading tweets and start reading data.
Observe the money flow on Defillama , checkout Nansen(dot)ai and other countless tools out there , obsess over dune dashboards (@Adam_Tehc has legit ones ) .
Here’s what’s been happening with $USELESS over the last few days despite all the FUD:
1. #USELESS still maintains as high dex flow .
2.High conviction players are aping in
3. High buy pressure
4. Mass accumulation by Exchanges
5. Increase in active Holders
All these can be verified on-chain and these are just some of the few things happening .
RULE 3 : REFLEXIVITY AND FEEDBACK LOOPS
In Crypto , Reflexivity is not just some theory , it’s what happens every single time a memecoin either moons or rugs.
It’s the belief → price → belief loop, supercharged because:
- The whole thing runs on a meme, not a product
- Holders are only loyal while the chart’s green
- High sentiment centralization: KoLs act as single points of influence
Reflexivity in #USELESS: How the Loop Works:
1. KoLs FUD Bonk eco & $USELESS
High profile Twitter accounts throw shade and suddenly, everyone’s doubting the project. The belief is planted.
1. Traders lose conviction
Traders see price dipping and assume the narrative was correct. No one wants to be last holding so they start selling.
1. Price Drops
A visible dump happens, reinforcing the belief. The chart becomes evidence in their heads. Confirmation bias kicks in .
1. Selling spawns more FUD
As more people sell, the narrative gets louder.
- Even neutral traders flip bearish not because of new info, but because the chart “proves” it.
- KoLs who FUD’d early now look like prophets → get more engagement → double down. perfect example is @imperooterxbt
loop spins again— belief → sell → price drop → belief now stronger .
Believe it or not this loop is gonna break soon . Some reasons why :
1. KOLs who FUDed will flip back since they now have an easy entry
2. Strong On-chain signals contradict the FUD
3. External catalysts (like the move to Reddit )
4. Visible big buys from smart money , whales and exchanges.
The new loop:
belief → buys → price up → stronger belief → more buys . A new ATH is inevitable .
RULE 4 : BEING UNEMOTIONAL BUT NOT UNCARING
Memecoins feed on emotions. Fear makes you sell bottoms. Greed makes you FOMO tops.
If you can’t detach emotionally, the reflexivity loop will chew you up.
Being unemotional:
- You make decisions from data, not from a KoL’s tweet.
- You don’t let a red candle make you dump without checking on-chain first.
Being not uncaring :
- You still pay attention to market structure, news, and on-chain flows.
- You still adjust your position if incentives change or new info emerges.
- You still protect your capital you’re just not a panic button.
Just imagine this , would you have kept your emotions under control if it meant turning $100 dollars into $2.8B now???
teapaw.org/TechDev_52/status/1952…
THE MOVE TO REDDIT
Recently Bonk guy made a move I never expected , he starting market BONK eco on reddit .
CT might not like it but this is the home the true diamond hands . These degens would rather sell a kidney than sell a coin they have conviction in . If you don’t believe me just go lurk around r/XRP . They truly believe their shitter’s mcap will flip Gold . They have no doubt that each coin will hit $10,000 ( rn at $3.3 ) . They literally just had their first profit since 2018 recently 😭.
Some Reddit stats for data nerds
1. 71% of people who discovered a brand online or off, researched it on Reddit
2. 79% of redditors agreed that “once I find a brand I like, I stay loyal to that brand,” also tops among social media users.
3. 74% of people agree that Reddit helps them make faster purchase decisions, #1 vs social media competitors.
From my own experience, unlike CT, crypto Reddit doesn’t orbit around KOLs , it orbits around communities . And those communities are pure echo chambers. Once they ape into something, that’s it. No FUD, no “maybe I’ll sell” they’ll ride it into the sun .
THE NARRATIVE
I'm more of a stats and data guy not narrative, but if I was, #USELESS would be king . No vaporware promises. It doesn’t even pretend to have a use case , the name tells you exactly what you’re buying. That’s more honesty than 99% of this market. In a market full of liars, this level of honest is almost NOBLE .
Final take :
- Alpha is just seeing the incentives , narrative , on-chain flow one step earlier than the herd.
- I’m not your KOL. If you follow this blindly, you’ll get slaughtered like the rest. DYOR, think for yourself, protect your bags.
“If I put $100 in Bitcoin in 2010 I’d have $2.8B now.”
No.
If you bought $100 of Bitcoin in 2010 and watched it go to:
$1k → $100k → $1.7M
and did nothing
Then watched $1.7M go to $170k
and still did nothing
Then watched $170k go to $110M
and still did nothing
Then watched $110M wither to $18M
and still did nothing
Then watched $18M surge to $390M
and still did nothing
Then watched $390M deteriorate to $85M
Then watched $85M climb to $1.6B
and still did nothing
Then watched $1.6B shrink to $390M
and still did nothing
Then watched $390M surge to $2.8B
and then for some reason finally decided to do something…
Then yes, $100 in 2010 would be worth $2.8B today.
I've only been farming this season for a few months
received allo within my expectations, thank you @tensor_hq
I hope the last @VECTORDOTFUN utility for Tensorians will be good 🙏
hamyak retweeted
MEME TRADING CHANGED FOREVER
LIVE ON APPLE + GOOGLE PLAY STORES
vec.fun/download
ACCESS IS GATED...REAL MFERS GET ACCESS CODES
never fade tensor team
never fade big brain
Saw this tweet 2 days ago and immediately aped $500K into $TNSR. No clue how the token will accrue any value in this new product, but the Tensor team is some of the best builders in the space and if they can finally crack the holy grail of SocialFi, things can get interesting.