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Fundamental equity research in software is challenging due to limited alternative data to support a thesis and complement your research mosaic.
That's changing.
repvue.com/data
Adam @ RepVue retweeted
We've surveyed 1,896 sales reps at $NOW over the past few years.
In Q3-26 we heard from 171 current employee sales reps.
...and sentiment has never been lower.
Product Market Fit sentiment measured a 3.86
(52%tile vs peers)
whats more stark is the fall from just 2 years ago 4.70 (96%tile)
ServiceNow was unquestionably the 'class' of public SaaS for years in RepVue Data - now its average at best.
Culture and Leadership ranks 38%tile
AI Impact sentiment (i.e. is AI helping or hurting business performance) ranks 32%tile
...(freaking Smartsheet ranks higher)
Future Outlook sentiment (next 12m optimism) ranks 40%tile and is down sharply YoY.
NOW (intended)...can they still accelerate revenues despite this clear shift in sentiment?
...maybe, maybe even probably?
% of the Team Hitting Quota still sits around 48% ... has declined some but has held up reasonably well.
in Q1 of this year 61% of sales reps reported receiving an increase to their annual targets.
Sales capacity (number of reps) is up 13% YoY
Enterprise/Strategic ACVs have been increasing nicely along side of shorter sales cycles.
This is all really strong.
But it's our belief that sentiment is the leading indicator of the structural problems that will show up 2,3,4 Qs out - you can squeeze an org for only so long, eventually the 'talent' will walk, and the true cost of open seats, customer relationships, ramp productivity hits etc is where it hurts.
Attrition is ticking up, now reading 34% annualized.
Incentive Comp Plan sentiment is already at an all-time low and looks like Q4 is pointing lower.
Go check where Anthropic and OpenAI are gobbling up sales talent from...
Some interesting recent commentary from Enterprise sellers (both positive and negative):
"Strong momentum with AI and specifically the Moveworks acquisition. Solid customer base but traditional products like ITSM and HRSD being challenged by AI natives"
"Deteriorating rapidly unfortunately. Very poor leadership, blurred product strategy and poor market penetration outside of already well established customers"
"Culture has changed from what it used to be. I won’t join a solution sales role. AE roles are the ones to go for but due diligence needed on accounts and quota. Also lot of scrutiny on larger deals. This is not the place what I joined 5 years ago"
"Global direction looks right but poor region leadership and product gap during AI era."
"It’s like watching the titanic sink. I recently left and I don’t think there was/is a single person I know that isn’t looking for another job externally. Used to be a great company and now is in complete disarray."
"It is certainly turning into a retention problem. Strong talent is being overworked and stretched too far. Uncertainty about the future is causing tenured talent to explore and leave for external. Tribal knowledge and industry SMEs are not being treated as the assets they truly are."
"High expectations drives high pressure to close on a regular basis. World class leadership, support, and strategy. World class training and personnel development. A great place to grow and advance your career. Results matter and if you don’t produce, you will not be employed."
"Once great company going through leadership transition, layoffs, and three poorly made acquisitions. Still a market leader with great products."
Want more like this? follow/DM/ email adam at repvue dot com
We've surveyed 1,896 sales reps at $NOW over the past few years.
In Q3-26 we heard from 171 current employee sales reps.
...and sentiment has never been lower.
Product Market Fit sentiment measured a 3.86
(52%tile vs peers)
whats more stark is the fall from just 2 years ago 4.70 (96%tile)
ServiceNow was unquestionably the 'class' of public SaaS for years in RepVue Data - now its average at best.
Culture and Leadership ranks 38%tile
AI Impact sentiment (i.e. is AI helping or hurting business performance) ranks 32%tile
...(freaking Smartsheet ranks higher)
Future Outlook sentiment (next 12m optimism) ranks 40%tile and is down sharply YoY.
NOW (intended)...can they still accelerate revenues despite this clear shift in sentiment?
...maybe, maybe even probably?
% of the Team Hitting Quota still sits around 48% ... has declined some but has held up reasonably well.
in Q1 of this year 61% of sales reps reported receiving an increase to their annual targets.
Sales capacity (number of reps) is up 13% YoY
Enterprise/Strategic ACVs have been increasing nicely along side of shorter sales cycles.
This is all really strong.
But it's our belief that sentiment is the leading indicator of the structural problems that will show up 2,3,4 Qs out - you can squeeze an org for only so long, eventually the 'talent' will walk, and the true cost of open seats, customer relationships, ramp productivity hits etc is where it hurts.
Attrition is ticking up, now reading 34% annualized.
Incentive Comp Plan sentiment is already at an all-time low and looks like Q4 is pointing lower.
Go check where Anthropic and OpenAI are gobbling up sales talent from...
Some interesting recent commentary from Enterprise sellers (both positive and negative):
"Strong momentum with AI and specifically the Moveworks acquisition. Solid customer base but traditional products like ITSM and HRSD being challenged by AI natives"
"Deteriorating rapidly unfortunately. Very poor leadership, blurred product strategy and poor market penetration outside of already well established customers"
"Culture has changed from what it used to be. I won’t join a solution sales role. AE roles are the ones to go for but due diligence needed on accounts and quota. Also lot of scrutiny on larger deals. This is not the place what I joined 5 years ago"
"Global direction looks right but poor region leadership and product gap during AI era."
"It’s like watching the titanic sink. I recently left and I don’t think there was/is a single person I know that isn’t looking for another job externally. Used to be a great company and now is in complete disarray."
"It is certainly turning into a retention problem. Strong talent is being overworked and stretched too far. Uncertainty about the future is causing tenured talent to explore and leave for external. Tribal knowledge and industry SMEs are not being treated as the assets they truly are."
"High expectations drives high pressure to close on a regular basis. World class leadership, support, and strategy. World class training and personnel development. A great place to grow and advance your career. Results matter and if you don’t produce, you will not be employed."
"Once great company going through leadership transition, layoffs, and three poorly made acquisitions. Still a market leader with great products."
Want more like this? follow/DM/ email adam at repvue dot com
Excited to launch our new RepVue Cloud Index tool - a more dynamic and granular way to keep a pulse on the vibes and execution of Software sales.
Check it out: repvue.com/cloud-index
Couple of takeaways - execution metrics and sentiment metrics are heading in different directions...
Quota Attainment - modest improvement
Quotal No.5 4/6 · 5 letters
⬛⬛⬛🟨⬛
🟨⬛⬛🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
repvue.com/quotal
$BRZE sales reps had ranked $CRM their #2 competitor the face most frequently in head-to-head deals, behind Iterable.
$CRM sales reps have named 44 different companies as competitors (#1 $HUBS #2 $MSFT #3 $NOW #4 Anthropic #5 Zendesk) ... not one of 1,292 competitive votes named $BRZE
In our Marketing Tool benchmark for Q3, $BRZE ranked #1 in Product Market Fit, Future Outlook, Culture and Leadership sentiment from its sales reps.
Braze was selling hard against Salesforce and doing a good job at it.
If you can't beat em, buy em.
Nice pick up for $CRM.
Why is average tenure in tech sales 18-24 months?
Well its really hard.
$NET
