Private investor | Head MBS quants multi-trillion asset manager | Lecturer @Columbia • ex: Quant MS, GS | PM global macro HF
NYC
Joined August 2021
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Zava Aydemir retweeted
If we need to bail out 43 million student loan borrowers, maybe most degrees aren’t a very good investment.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Decarbonization will require lots of raw materials for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, EVs, etc.
Kudos to the EU for starting to lower regulatory barriers to the mining and production of critical materials — the US should follow suit.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Some staggering stats on ESG funds:
- Irrelevant market share in the US vs. massive % in Europe
- Very large underperformance in European ESG equities
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Don’t worry if your A level results are disappointing. I got a C and 2 Us and I’m currently holidaying on this boat.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
"The big money is not in buying or selling, but in the waiting."
-Charlie Munger
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Immigration is America’s superpower.
Here are 9 reasons why (and what US policymakers can do to attract even more global talent)...
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Buffett: "The owners of businesses, in aggregate, cannot come out anyway better than the businesses come out. Profitability of American business determines the profitability of what the owners of American business have. Forget about the little ticker symbols and everything else."
Zava Aydemir retweeted
There are thousands of family offices investing trillions in assets. Yet most remain practically invisible.
The birth of this industry dates back to the mismanagement of one of America's largest fortunes. And a home run investment involving the first billion dollar company.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
I've been self-employed for most of my life & without a schedule for 2 decades, yet I still find Friday and Saturday the most pleasant days, Monday the least pleasurable one, & Sunday evening a usually sombre moment.
It has to do with the mood of others. You don't live alone.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Robert Shiller says a 10% nominal house price decline through 2024 is possible.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
I have been thinking about the economy post employment report. The report confirms that the economy is unsustainably hot with every kind of underlying inflation measure—core, wages, median, trimmed mean, sticky price sectors, unit labor costs running way above target.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Both GS and MS prime brokerage reporting that nets came down over the past week. I was quite shocked as I thought last week people finally partially embraced the rally. Professional investors still very defensively positioned
Zava Aydemir retweeted
1. I thought it useful to gather my thoughts and predictions for the US economy for the rest of the year. The usual caveat applies: there is a lot of uncertainty around them, but these are my best guesses. 1/9
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Traders are pricing in 2.9% inflation two years from now, down from as high as 4.9% in March, as per breakeven rates. There is still a belief baked into markets that inflation will cool rapidly in the upcoming years, even as the labor market sends a different signal.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Well, ECI not good — seems to show accelerating wage growth, in contrast to the average wage numbers. Not the final word — ECI has been sort of erratic lately — but a strike against inflation optimists bls.gov/news.release/eci.t02…
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Mortgage rates fell to 5.3% after rising for two straight weeks, another indication that recession concerns are impacting the U.S. housing market on.wsj.com/3bfQUhl
Zava Aydemir retweeted
There seems to be confusion about recessions.
The official arbiter is the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
“To me, the two-quarter criterion is irrelevant,” says Bob Hall, a Hoover Institution senior fellow who has chaired the committee since 1978.
washingtonpost.com/business/…
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Powell points to the lags of monetary policy: "These rate hikes have been large, and they’ve come quickly. And it’s likely that their full effect has not been felt by the economy so there’s probably some significant additional tightening in the pipeline."
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Americans' confidence in the military, police, the presidency, the supreme court, and the news media have all declined. At least confidence in congress has remained steady.
Zava Aydemir retweeted
Recessions have not been "redefined."
nber.org/business-cycle-dati…
This is such an FAQ that I asked it when I first became a financial reporter in 1987.
I got the same answer 35 (yes, thirty-five) years ago.
