The Chartist

Main trading account has given a little back over the last few months, but we know it's a bumpy road to outperformance. 10-year CAGR running at 32.45%. Remember, a simple strategy applied for the long-term is all you need. #next1000trades

The old 20% Flipper strategy is now 14 years OOS. CAGR since release +21.9% on $NDX

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$NDQ old school technicals...

This month shows why a portfolio of diversified strategies can smooth the journey. Default-style momentum strategies have been heavily caught in the AI sell-off. Longer variants are currently at a maximum historical drawdown of -50%. Shorter variants are at -35%. Other US-style momentum portfolios not caught in the AI collapse are defensively positioned and are at about an -11% drawdown. Our US All-Weather, designed for low volatility, is currently down -3.2% and very defensively positioned.

Geez...talk about swinging for the fences

The irony is they're inflicting the same pain - moving from being the ones priced out to being the ones doing the pricing out. @dystopian_DU

Lots of people are applauding yesterday's meteoric rise on the #ASX with the usual "you can't time the market" and other basic motherhood statements. But buried beneath the hood, like many passive strategies, there looms significant hardship. Example: The $MTUM ETF has been a rip-roaring success since its launch in 2013. But doing some basic homework reveals that, had the ETF been around in 2008, the equity decline would have been nearer -56% and taken quite a few years to recover. And don't tell me that you would've averaged down into that decline. I'll call BS. I was there in 2008. The world was ending. Sh*t stuck to everything, and nobody wanted to own anything. I agree you can't time the daily noise. But the daily noise is the start of larger dislocations that can be timed.

If you can't spot the sucker, you are the sucker... #Binance

I'd like to feel sorry, but seriously? Step 1: take responsibility for your own shit show Step 2: Refer step 1. I've been watching a guy elsewhere over the last 18 months. An absolute train wreck attempt at systematic trading. He changes strategy during each drawdown. I think he's now switched 4 times. Doesn't use non-survivorship bias data from @NorgateData. Clearly curve fits and generally has NFI of what's he's doing, yet he's keen on lecturing others on how it gets done. I'm just lucky I learnt to trade back in the 80's before today's BS

#ASX is telling a bit of a story at the moment. Be interesting to see if it continues in the months ahead. Oct 2026 Large Caps +2.0% Small Caps: -6.4% #Budget2026 #Labour

I'm in. For 3 reasons... 1. He's honest 2. He has a Telegram channel 3. He has a money printer ... what could possibly go wrong?

Chinese Trading Proverb: "Those that pick bottom get dirty finger" $TUA.ax

#ASX MTD: Large Caps: +0.6% Small Caps: -6.6% Significant switching ahead of rate rises and 2027 tax changes. Expect it to continue...

You don't know what you don't know...and Claude certainly doesn't know..

Trading success isn’t in the perfect entry. It’s in the calm between trades. I may not always have the biggest winners, the highest win rate, or the most profit. But I take a loss without flinching, stick to the process, and treat every signal as if the last one never happened. #next1000trades

I'm reading on some forums that momentum, trend following, and mechanical systematic trading are dead. Again. Apparently, this time it's due to 24-hour trading. I'm 40 years into this game. I heard it when pricing went decimal. I heard it when trading floors closed. I heard it when bond yields started rising. I'm sure there were times I didn't hear it, but it was being said by someone somewhere. Below is the simulated equity curve of my main US momentum model, which was launched in 2015 and built on data from 1995. It has 4 rules. Using that model, on that data, and tested back to 1955, it's hard to suggest that anything has changed. #Next1000trades

Sounds like he's living the dream... ...or the delusion

About 4 years of drawdowns across the full portfolio of strategies. Current drawdown: -7.55% Get comfortable with drawdowns. They're the price of playing... #next1000trades

US equities heat map. Top = 1 week Bottom = 3 months