German-American Investor | Venture Strategist | Animal Rights Advocate đŸ‡ș🇾 đŸ‡©đŸ‡Ș

New York
Joined July 2012
Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.” “If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.”
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Teslas are insanely safe, but traditional insurance has no clue. Lemonade connects directly to your @Tesla and cuts insurance costs by 50% on miles driven with FSD (Supervised). And... as of today, HW3 Teslas get 30% off with FSD v14 Lite! Live in AZ, CO & TN + more soon: lemonade.com/fsd
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Andy Hamer retweeted
Focus on where you want to go, not on what you fear.
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Andy Hamer retweeted
Everything big starts small and focused. 1,000 true fans is step #1, whether you want a $100K per year business or the next Uber. I’ve seen this with all of my fastest-growing and most successful startups. They start laser-focused on 100 to 1,000 people, niche-ing down as necessary with their messaging and targeting (demographically, geographically, etc.) to get to a manageable and cost-effectively reachable number. So, you may ask yourself, “Why aim for a mere $100K when I can try to build a billion-dollar business?” Two reasons: 1) Aiming for the latter from the outset often leads to neglecting the high-touch 1,000 true fans who act as your most powerful unpaid marketing force for “crossing the chasm” into the mainstream. If you don’t build that initial army, you’re likely to fail. 2) Do you really want to build and manage a big company? For most people, it’s not a fun experience; it’s an all-consuming taskmaster. There are certainly ace CEOs who thread the needle and enjoy this roller coaster, but they are outliers. Read Small Giants by Bo Burlingham for some fantastic examples of companies that choose to be the best rather than the biggest.
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Andy Hamer retweeted
Peter Thiel says Europe fears success: "One of the things in Germany that people always talk about in this entrepreneurship context is there's a fear of failure. A 'no risk' culture... Perhaps there's also a fear of success." "If you have something that works, you're not going to scale it to this extreme degree like an @elonmusk or @finkd. At some point you'll sell the company or exit." "What's very striking is how few great new companies have been built in Germany in the last number of decades." "If you look at the 50 wealthiest people in the US, only 12 are Gen X or younger—people born 1965 or later." "In Germany, it's more distributed: 20 of the 50 people are Gen X or younger." "But here's the difference—in the US, 9 out of 12 of those people made their own money. In Germany, all 20 of those 20 inherited it. Not a single person did something new, made some new money, built a large, new scalable company." Via Mathias Döpfner
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The shorter your time horizon, the harder it is to distinguish skill from luck and signal from noise. Long-term investing doesn’t mean “buy and forget.” It means giving your thesis enough time to be tested against what actually matters: revenue, margins, cash flows, competitive advantage and capital allocation. Time doesn’t guarantee you’ll be right. It simply gives fundamentals more opportunities to prove or disprove your thesis. That improves the odds that your outcome reflects judgment rather than randomness. @hmarksofficial @nntaleb
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Dan Schreiber, is in my view, one of the most underrated CEOs in America and one of the best. I suspect that this will become much more obvious in hindsight. This presentation on AI and where @Lemonade_Inc is headed is a great example of why. Worth watching.
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Humanity needs huge, aggressive and bold goals. This is what we should focus our energy on!
This is the future we shall bring into being
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Andy Hamer retweeted
The best way to pace the frontier is to hold the labs fully liable for the behavior of their models.
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Warren Buffett: “I like to deal with people where I feel a 1-page contract will do the job. If I have to have 50 pages in there to protect me against the guy I’m dealing with, I’ll always wonder whether I needed 51.”
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Andy Hamer retweeted
Replying to @Anc_Aesthetics
Exactly
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"You only have to have an opinion about a few things."
“You don’t need 20 right decisions to get very rich. 4 or 5 will probably do it
” “It’s a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything.” — Warren Buffett
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Charlie Munger: “The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting.” Howard Marks showed why during an interview at Wharton: “As I recall, I think Amazon was $90 in ‘99 on the tech bubble. And then when the bubble burst in 2000 or 2001, it was $6. So it went from $90 to $6. It was down 93%. So what if you were smart enough to buy it at $6? Would you have held it at $12? Or would you have said, well, I’ve doubled my money. I’m going to take some off the table. I’m going to take out my cost and let my profits ride. And let’s say you held it at $12. You’re tough. What about when it got to $60 and you’ve made 10X your money? Would you sell it? Most people would. What about when it got to $600 and you’ve made 100X your money? Would you sell half? Would you sell 3/4? Would you sell 90%? And at the time I wrote it, as I recall, Amazon was $3,300. So if you sold it at $600, when it was up 100X, you left, basically, 85% of the money on the table.” Peter Lynch put it this way: “Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.” Most people use this line as a reminder when their stocks are down
 But it also allows you to stay invested long enough to make 100X or more when your stocks are up.
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Andy Hamer retweeted
My book is out today: The Work That Remains — Human Judgment, AI, and the Architecture of the Next Enterprise. I wrote it because most of what executives hear about AI comes from one of two rooms — one in panic, one in euphoria. Neither helps you decide anything. What enterprises need is a pragmatic account of where AI is genuinely strong, where it is structurally limited, and a deployment model that follows from both. That is what this book tries to be. My bias, declared up front: I run an automation company, and the conclusion is convenient for companies like mine. Do not take the argument on my authority — and do not dismiss it for the same reason. If you leave with one argument, take this one. AI genuinely embodies characteristics of human intelligence — it reasons, plans, drafts, explains. But it lacks the one thing every employee you ever hired does naturally: it does not learn on the job. A new hire arrives knowing nothing about your company and becomes valuable by absorbing everything nobody ever wrote down. The model arrives brilliant — and shows up exactly as new every morning. The entire method in this book is built around that limitation. I wrote it with Claude and ChatGPT, and the last chapter explains how. I learned more about AI writing this book than in any year of running an AI company. I think every reader will leave with something that changes how they deploy it. Read it here: uipath.com/the-work-that-rem

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Howard Marks: “Buffett says he made all of his money on 12 ideas. Guy invested for 70 years. Charlie Munger, who was a friend of mine, Warren‘s partner, used to say he made all his money on 4 ideas.”
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It would still be great to see a few open-market share purchases from management, it would be a strong signal that they believe the stock is undervalued. However, major credit to @daschreiber for the conversation with @PaperBagInvest . Few public CEOs are this transparent or willing to answer difficult questions head on. One thing that really stood out: every Lemonade employee’s bonus is paid in stock, not cash. That’s an unusually strong level of shareholder alignment for a public company. If the business keeps executing, there’s a reasonable chance this is a multi-year opportunity. Let the company build. The stock price will likely catch up over time. youtu.be/v8dW50r7cuE?is=cC1K

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I am merely pointing something out that should be common for all public companies. When the share price is trading below intrinsic value, management, by buying shares with their own cash, demonstrates an understanding of price to value in the Buffett sence. Lemonade’s management team is already aligned more than most management teams. We are fortunate that this is a publicly traded company. I would not wish for another management team. I believe that Shai and Daniel are the Elon’s of the insurance world. Anyone holding the shares long term is likely going to great massive wealth. But I still hold them to an even higher standard than anyone else, because they are exceptional leaders, but they can do even better.
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Always energizing to listen to @TonyRobbins !
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Every market cycle produces extraordinary winners. But you can also be completely right about the future and still lose everything. Given this weeks news about the Situational Awareness Fund, I wanted to share some thoughts about survivorship bias and Russian roulette. open.substack.com/pub/andyha

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