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Cyclone Murasu – Severe Cyclone Likely at Landfall around Kavali in South Andhra - Who are the enemies for a Cyclone ==================== Murasu is expected to cross the South Andhra coast, close to the Kavali belt, as a Severe Cyclonic Storm. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite favourable for further intensification. There are two major enemies that can rapidly weaken a cyclone: 1. Strong Wind Shear - Wind shear can tilt a cyclone's vertical structure and displace its upper-level clouds from the circulation centre, disrupting the storm's organisation. Strong shear, particularly above 30 knots, can significantly hamper intensification. For Murasu, the 850–200 mb vertical wind shear is currently less than 10 knots. This is an extremely favourable environment for cyclone intensification. (Refer to Images 1 and 2.) 2. Dry Air Intrusion - Dry air is another major enemy of tropical cyclones. When dry air enters the circulation and reaches the core, it can suppress convection and disrupt the moisture supply that sustains the cyclone. In Murasu's case, dry air is attempting to wrap around one side of the circulation. However, the cyclone is managing to protect its core for now. 3. Ocean Conditions (SST) – Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) remain above 29°C along the system's path. These warm ocean waters provide ample heat and moisture to sustain deep convection and support further intensification. The overall environment continues to support intensification. All these factors favour Murasu maintaining its strength and potentially intensifying further until landfall. IMD expects 110 km/hr while crossing while American counterparts JTWC 105 km/hr. Chennai (KTCC)- Rains should start tomorrow (monday) morning. But the intense rainfall zone is likely to remain the Sea away from the city. Maybe areas close to sea in North Chennai, if lucky can get some good bands. and the extreme north areas of Tamil Nadu around Ponneri-Gummidipoondi - Pulicat areas can grab some heavy spells if lucky.