Hi there, call me Martin. This is my journal of an aspiring trader. Here to learn and share knowledge.
Joined February 2024
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My path: I've walked varied paths already, professional athlete, entrepreneur, management consultant and corporate leadership. Along the way, I’ve learned a lot about people, money, and the quiet patterns that shape them. Trading wasn’t the plan, I stumbled into it, then I made some, lost some and then…I paused. Over the last two years, I’ve taken a step back to study, not just the markets, but myself in relation to them. I built databases, watched and documented price action, developed patterns, studied those who cracked the code, and found something unexpectedly beautiful in the rhythm of it all. For me, trading is a new craft I would like to master, it is a blend of freedom, discipline, and discovery and I’m curious to see how far I can take it.
When I grew up in the Czech Republic in the 90s, every business person talked with envy and respect about the American innovative and capitalistic culture, a place full of inventors, leaders, investors and a test and fail culture. That is the American ideology I grew up with. Over last decades it faded away quite a bit, watching this show brings back the memories about what America stood for and what innovation can unlock. Unlikely this will be the main commercial and revenue driver for $TSLA, but to me that was not the intent, the intent was we create cool shit because we have cool tech and because we can and in the future this will come together and will find use cases, maybe in robots or whatever. @elonmusk is showing what the way forward is through tech, innovation and thinking big and bold with no limitations, thank you Elon!
Absolutely incredible trading summary video with so much insight and so much detail from the mastermind himself @RealSimpleAriel. The wealth of information put out by incredible traders is just awesome, no excuses to not continuously learn and adopt new practices. youtu.be/bo6R4syuZ3I?si=ZPT3… via @YouTube
What a signal this was! Never stopped from there. As a developing graded, those observations are priceless to me. Observe->deconstruct->solidify-> and apply!
Hindsight, but to me, not buying the dip in Software was my biggest trading mistake this year. Especially around the end of June/ early July period. What a damn missed opportunity with such a clear R/R in a clearly mispriced context, I was overthinking that one way too much. Cannot happen again, will not happen again! I will do a write up on his to solidify the learnings.
It was indeed a good observation, what a move! ...start of a trend? Literally the only asset class that did not run yet, feels like software stocks when they were hated
Even more so today!
I like the relative strength of $BTC to the market, quite interesting, been a while since I noticed this positioning in such an obvious trend, clear VWAP buyer, respecting trend, at least on a very small timeframe, but could this be a sign? ...
I like the relative strength of $BTC to the market, quite interesting, been a while since I noticed this positioning in such an obvious trend, clear VWAP buyer, respecting trend, at least on a very small timeframe, but could this be a sign? ...
Finally had the time to read and fully absorb this truly exceptional book from @jackschwager @gfc4. To me this is a trading bible: real insights and wisdoms and valuable learnings and lessons, from traders who achieved tremendous success.
How would I summarise my reading of the book?
1) believe in yourself, your vision and goals;
2) study the lay of the land, form an opinion, prepare a plan and follow it;
3) be ready to adjust and change your mind when the facts change;
4) cut what is not working right away;
5) operate in the right, condusive environment and
6) manage your expectations realistically
All these six points to me describe very much an entrepreneurial mind, running a business, in this case a money business. Trading is unique, you push buttons and move money around, you can make, make a lot or lose it all in an instant.
Very likely all these traders are exceptional human beings and would succeed in anything they would decide to do, but they excelled in trading, a business they choose to dominate.
The learnings and insights offered in the book give me so much to ponder about psychology, determination, way of life, values, trading business and so much more.
Thank you Jack and George (and all the traders for sharing their stories) for investing time and effort into the writing of this amazing book.
And this is why @TheShortBear is a market wizard and most of us are not, plain and simple. Great inspiration to go further and deeper in my thinking, analysis and reasoning, thank you TSB 💪
I thought we would go over the $CAR dynamics in a deep dive which I haven't done in a while publicly.
I hope this explains what was lacking on Fintwit.
I am sure many read about this story, 24-year old made $5b in a year. I keep reading about it again and again. Its core premise is simple, develop a thesis, gather facts/data, validate and make informed bets and course correct along the way, plus be super smart in how you do it. Sounds simple :) This substack describes the story well.. oksanameier.substack.com/p/h…
...and this is the thesis he wrote and followed for his bets, my weekend reading :) situational-awareness.ai/wp-…
This rebound happened crazy quick, it was difficult to get positioned well for this move. If I were not in market indexes in long-term accounts I would be very upset. Also, imagine how this move stregthens the mindset of buying the dip, tarrifs, wars, all dips leads to higher grounds, kinda of crazy, but that is what forward looking, AI super cycle and margins and earnings expansion mean imo.
This is literally the most extreme momentum event in 40 years of recorded data. The Nasdaq 100's RSI went from 28 (oversold) on March 30 to 70.5 (overbought) by April 15 — in just 11 sessions. That is the fastest oversold-to-overbought transition in the Nasdaq 100's 40-year recorded history. The previous fastest was 25 sessions after Liberation Day last year. The historical average is 60+ sessions. Benzinga
According to Bespoke Investment Group, this also marks the fastest move from a correction of this size to a new record high since 1928. Yahoo Finance
The forward return data is actually quite bullish long-term. Across all 44 historical episodes where the Nasdaq gained 11% or more in 10 sessions, the 12-month forward return averaged +24%, with a median of +30%, and a win rate of 80%. At 6 months, the win rate is 74%. Benzinga
But the near-term pullback is almost guaranteed. The average maximum drawdown following these signals was −18.39% — meaning while the 12-month destination is historically higher, the journey involves deep, punishing pullbacks that can severely impact over-leveraged portfolios. Ainvest
The key number to watch: Based on the 6 most comparable historical analogues — COVID recovery (−8%), Liberation Day 2025 (−4%), Fed pivot 2018 (−6%), Asian crisis 1997 (−7%) — the most probable near-term pullback is 3-8% within the next 2-4 weeks. The April 22 ceasefire expiry is the most likely trigger. After that consolidation, the historical data overwhelmingly favors a resumption of the bull trend.
The S&P 500 has experienced average intra-year declines of roughly 14% since 1990, even in years that finish strongly positive — and the average correction (10-20% decline) lasts just 17 days. U.S. Bank
A pullback here isn't a disaster; it's the historical norm and historically the best re-entry point.
Wes and I are extremely well positioned in the leaders.
This was worth the risk for sure and good level to risk off of, the q is what's next and how to place bets. In my view, the next leg will for sure depend on latest devs in Iran war, but i think less probability for continuation and more probability to fade most extended oil related tickers, lets see :)
$USO clearly, a macro trade since Feb, this weekend super important to see what happens in the Iran Us conflict as breaking the 125 level would be totally catastrophic for almost everything in real economic sense. I sense BTC will give us a sense check of reactions to market developments this weekend, followed by futures on Sun evening. Also notable the intraday price action on Fri with the wicks on volume above VWAP in second half the day and the overall reaction off the 121 level. Next week will be super interesting.
$USO clearly, a macro trade since Feb, this weekend super important to see what happens in the Iran Us conflict as breaking the 125 level would be totally catastrophic for almost everything in real economic sense. I sense BTC will give us a sense check of reactions to market developments this weekend, followed by futures on Sun evening. Also notable the intraday price action on Fri with the wicks on volume above VWAP in second half the day and the overall reaction off the 121 level. Next week will be super interesting.
I always over complicate things, over analyze, read too much, it all leads to so much lost opportunity, it is now toooooo much, i cannot let this continue. All my initial thesis, views, out looks confirm, those that I spend little time on, then I need to know more and that is where it goes wrong, action stops and lost opportunity starts. Enough is enough, I have my plan now, need to rewire many processes, need to let go!
The fact that some of these wizards, like @TheShortBear, are active on X is a blessing. Couple it with grok - an ai tool you can use to reason, derive insight, reconstruct his trades and his thoughts process, create summarises of his trade write ups etc. Also worth mentioning his substack and YT channel, you can mine those sources of information and get unparalleled insight into his mind. It is a huge positive net net all around.
A lot of people are hating on the fact that the Next Gen Market Wizards are active on X and I think this is a big mistake. As you will see if you read the upcoming book, these guys are more transparent on how they do what they do than perhaps any other collection of Wizards. Combine that with the fact that you can follow them in real time and see what they are talking about in terms of trading opportunities and you basically have a playbook with real time alerts. I imagine prior generations would have jumped at the chance to see what the Wizards of old were saying. Today that is not only possible but it is actually happening! Despite this, people are hating. Make me understand. @Tradestl @TheOneLanceB @TheShortBear @Off_The_Tape
This is a very interesting chart. I recall for one SLT meeting I had to run last year, I needed to build a business case in xls and slides, with assumptions, value levers etc. I knew this meeting is taking place for the sake of it, so no point to invest time into it. I built the xls business case with GPT, validated all assumptions, refined the logic, numbers etc, presented it to the SLT members. They all loved it and ended up sharing it with their mgmt. It took ~4 hours to build it, but it would have taken me at least 4 full days to build in a traditional way, that was an eye opener to me, and that was early last year when the tools were less capable than today!
Cannot wait to drink the inspiration from these traders who achieved such massive success in the markets!
The upcoming Market Wizards book is approaching completion. As such, @jackschwager and I have decided to release the names of the traders included in the book and their associated X handles. Here they are:
Kristjan Kullamägi @Qullamaggie
Lance Breitstein @TheOneLanceB
Simon Russo @simonrusso__
Lukas Fröhlich @TheShortBear
Phil Goedeker @Tradestl
Kelvin Chiu @KC_SilverCape
Jason Berry @Positive_Equity
Kenny Sharkness of @smbcapital (Kenny has no public X account)
Rick Bandazian Jr. @Off_The_Tape
Looking forward to sharing the book with the world!
If you'd like to pre-order the book, you can do so here: lnk.to/marketwizardsnextgene…
For discounted bulk orders (US only) go here: bulkbooks.com/products/marke…
