WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Oct 10: G4 (Severe) Oct 11: G4 (Severe) Oct 12: G1 (Minor) Issue Time: 2024 Oct 09 1233 UTC bit.ly/3wVgAKH

#astrotwitter Can we have some advice on where to go besides Twitter/X? Which alternative has the greatest critical mass? How does one join? Apps needed?

PSA: Everyone please take a breath. Just because ONE forecast did not verify with 100% accuracy does not mean the CME is not coming. NEVER use the NOAA 3-day Kp forecast or your aurora app for forecasting CME arrival. It can not be done. Instead, look at models like HUXt (info here: theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/…) that give confidence levels and uncertainty in the arrival time of a CME. In the case of the first CME from the X7.1 flare, the confidence in HUXt is 70%. That is also NOT 100%. It is very possible the CME will never arrive, and you have to be okay with that reality (does the 3-day forecast say that? Answer is no). Space weather forecasting is 10x harder than forecasting weather on the ground. We have a data point at the Sun, a few images of the CME as it launches off, then we're completely blind until it reaches L1, trusting models that are still simplifications of the real thing because the full models need weeks on supercomputers to run. The equivalent analogy in meteorology (at least IMO) is like seeing a hurricane form off the west coast of Africa and making a prediction about where it will land on the east coast of the U.S., then putting a blindfold on with your hands tied behind your back and ripping everything off as soon as it makes landfall. How often do you think you prediction would turn out? That being said, HUXt forecasts an arrival time of the X7.1 CME at 2024-10-05 at 10 UTC. We haven't even approached that time, yet. We aren't even in the uncertainty range for the HUXt arrival time! I am nowhere near concerned right now about the arrival of this CME. Some other CME models have similar arrival time predictions. We can even see some signature that something is coming in low-level particles at ACE. If we don't see something by 10-06 midnight UTC, then I will be concerned. The NOAA prediction was optimistsic from the beginning (imho), and that's the problem with the 3-day Kp forecast. It relies on one forecasting agency to do all the work and gives you zero information about the confidence of that forecast, the uncertainty of whatever is driving the forecast, or really anyhing under the hood... and that's the point. The 3-day Kp forecast was NOT DESIGNED for aurora chasers. NOAA SWPC does not forecast aurora. They help make sure your lights stay on if we have a Carrington event. Aurora is not their concern. TED talk over. Consider abandoning the 3-day Kp forecast and looking at a few different CME models to see what other groups are thinking. Just my two cents, you can take it or leave it... I am getting a bit fed up with the hype, though.