TraderHC

I turned 28 years old today. 5 years ago, I went into money management in ties of commercial real estate, stocks, and treasuries/cash. They set me up with $500k to start a $BTC / crypto portfolio to manage along with everything else I was/am doing. Now, after another $5m injected over the years, I have nearly doubled the cost basis. I love the journey and feel like I am just starting.

Tech is up 3.3% while healthcare is down 0.9%. On holiday volume that looks like a squeeze in the easiest names to squeeze, with nothing broader behind it. I am not chasing $QQQ above 690 into this.

$SPY is up 0.84% pre-market at 756 while cash Treasuries are shut for Veterans Day. The 10Y is stuck at Tuesday's 4.98% and nobody can trade it. I think this AI bid gets its real price Thursday when bonds reopen.

Last time core missed like this, $SPY sold over 1% after hours. Today it sits flat while BTC leaks toward its 200-day at 73,135. I lean 72,000 this week unless bitcoin reclaims 75,300.

Dealers are short gamma in $SPY right at 750. The hedging flow below spot is almost 5x what sits above it. If 750 cracks overnight, the selling is mechanical. My bet is 745-748 tomorrow unless 751 holds into Wednesday.

Data to watch WED (all times ET): 05:00 OPEC Monthly Report **

$QQQ delivered. Puts from $4.11 to $6.56. +59.6% 30d: 11W-1L | 91.7% All-time: 69W-26L | 72.6%

$QQQ is down 1% at 672.64 into the 1pm 10-year auction, and CTAs are doing the selling. Funding stress is nowhere in this tape. If the auction doesn't tail, I think this dump gets faded by tomorrow.

Energy is funding the move into defensives. Oil lost 2.3% overnight to 84.89, and copper and gold went with it, so this is demand. $XLE sits at 61.94 under the 62 call wall, and I think 60 prints this week.

Front vol is asleep into CPI, with VIX9D sitting under $VIX. The December hike is already priced, so the 10Y at 4.86% is the real trigger and 4.88 is the line. A break there puts QQQ at 661 by tomorrow.

$LQD 104.08 keeps lagging TLT 81.78 because the entire move is in real yields. The 10-year real rate is 2.66% and breakevens are just 2.22%. I lean toward 101.83 in two weeks unless real yields slip back under 2.5%.

$BTC sat flat at 74,794 while QQQ ripped 3.4%, and bitcoin funds bled 489M. Gold took the weak dollar bid instead. I don't trust this rally until bitcoin gets back over its 20-day at 78,566.

Daily journal Mon 11/9. Sat on hands. Discipline over action. 30d 10W-1L (90.9%).

I think this $SPY rip is mostly a vol crush. Price is 752.50 under a 753 call wall with dealers long gamma, and risk appetite outside stocks never confirmed it. Who is buying above 753 today?

$IWM dealers are short gamma at 277, so they chase moves instead of pinning them. If 279 rejects, the same flow that lifted it drags it back through the 275 put wall. My bet is 270-273 by Friday.

I am betting the Hormuz headline is noise for crude. A real supply shock lifts oil against gold, and instead copper is outrunning oil. $USO stays a short toward 144.89 this week unless it reclaims 152.22.

Data to watch MON (all times ET): 08:40 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks ** 13:00 3Y Note Auction (prev 4.932%) **

Monday's 3-year auction at 1pm ET is the first real test of Friday's jobs beat. The last stop was 4.932%. If it tails 2bp or more, the hot payrolls were never in the concession and dealers eat the paper.

Funding stress looks healed on the averages, but the weakest borrowers still pay 3.8 times the average. That gap is getting worse every week. I am not adding risk until that 3.8x comes down.

$BTC spot is flat at 75,728 and the Sunday expiry is down to 19 vol. That is just theta with equities closed. Two weeks out still sits at 38 with put skew bid, and I would not short that.