tyke

just remember if everybody is betting on a crash coming theres no crash coming

// robinhood $HOOD and the hated 95%+ margin industry: 346million$ net income for a 100billion stock, 245million$ in addressable net income. at the moment the meme trading infrastructure industry is doing an aggregate total of ~250million$ in revenue per quarter (pump, axiom, gmgn, uniswap, etc), in an environment where memes are very much hated these are platforms where they onboard net ~zero-to-minimal new users, as the majority of their current users are mostly pre-existing from last onchain cycle. most might not be aware of this, but in the meme trading infrastructure & platform industry, margins are extremely high. higher than even memory supercycle magins. rpc cost is 10k$ a month, servers are 2k$ a month. fees are 1% of volume. essentially, more than 95% of revenue is profit - which makes for approximately 242.5million$ net income per quarter at the minimum. robinhood $HOOD is currently worth 101billion$ mcap. their latest earnings at Q1 2026 puts them at 1.067billion$ revenue with 346million$ net income. they control the highest population of degenerates on the planet - essentially, the "next 10 million crypto users" that our industry has been trying to onboard for the past 3 years. they have 27 million kyc'ed degenerates on their platform - actual real users. not botted crypto "users" running on the founder's macbook for the monopolizer of the "next 10 million crypto users" with more than 7x coinbase users, it is not unrealistic to assume that they would be able to capture at least 30% of existing (bear market) onchain trading revenue market share. they are bigger than all of them combined in terms of PMF and also control the biggest, untouched customer sector - degens. note that when i say onchain, 95% of onchain volume today is literally memes - personally wish that there is more utility, but the market is bigger than us. so hence we should adapt to the market. 30% of existing meme trading revenue converts to ~80million$ in additional earnings per quarter, given that margins are ~95% for meme trading infrastructure. tradfi brokers (ibkr, fidelity, etc) fight tooth and nail to charge an approximate ~0.1-0.15% fees. gmgn, photon, etc charges nearly 10x that at 1%. it is simply the lowest hanging fruit for robinhood to harvest given their user-market-fit moat. ~80million$ in additional net income represents a +24% gain in robinhood's earnings, quite possibly as soon as this quarter, since as we know in memes things move VERY fast. pumpfun made it from launch to an annualized 600million$+ profit in less than a quarter. robinhood knows that. such a sudden and extreme earnings growth would likely push the stock by 20%-30%, taking a midpoint it's a +30billion$ mcap move on robinhood's table as long as they capture the meme trading infrastructure sector - which is honestly speaking, not hard to do. even nobodies were able to push meme trading infras to 250million+ quarterly net income - let alone the platform with the largest meme moat on the planet (27million degens. 7x coinbase users). obviously, they will do it. note that these calculations were based on a meme eco where so what am i getting here - is that robinhood will likely place memes as their top priority this quarter. there is simply no second best to generate such asymmetric earnings growth for a company in that position. and they have a duty to their shareholders to prioritize what benefits the company most. this isn't a call directed to any meme - but moreso a thesis that memes are coming back. whether we like it or not. the market is the market, and a trader's job is to adapt to changing market conditions.